It’s time for a “hot take” on point score to see how good your tennis intuition really is. Here’s a fun quiz that is focused on winning the game in two specific serve and return scenarios.

Scenario 1: Serving at 0/40
You are in the deepest serve hole there is. You need at least five points to hold serve, and for the first three points your opponent is salivating over break points. One slip and you are done.

Scenario 2: Returning at 30/15
Now you need only three points to break serve, while the server needs two. You are much closer to the finish line than the first scenario, but you don’t have the benefit of serving.

Have a think about it… Which scenario offers the highest percentage chance of winning the game?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the 2015 season to this week identifies that, on average, they have a higher percentage of winning the game when serving from 0/40. The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals.

Current Top 10 Average: Winning The Game
Serving from 0/40 = 19.0% (236/1240).
Breaking from 30/15 = 15.8% (2008/12715)

Eight of the current Top 10 adhered to this pattern, while only No. 9 Daniil Medvedev and No. 10 Fabio Fognini performed better breaking from 30/15.

Current Top 10: Holding from 0/40 – 2015 to Current Week

Roger Federer leads the Top 10 in holding from 0/40 since the beginning of the 2015 season, at 30.4 per cent (24/79). Federer’s gap over second-placed Rafael Nadal is a substantial seven percentage points, or almost a 25 per cent increase. The other two players who were above the Top 10 average of 19 per cent were Dominic Thiem (22.2%) and Novak Djokovic (21%).

Current Top 10: Breaking from 30/15 – 2015 to Current Week

Nadal leads the current Top 10 in breaking from a 30/15 scoreline at 19.8 per cent (280/1417). Djokovic is hot on his heels, breaking 19.5 per cent (300/1528) from this specific scoreline. The other three players above the Top 10 average of 15.8 per cent are Kei Nishikori (17.3%), Roger Federer (16.3%) and Fabio Fognini (16.1%).

Your first instinct was probably to go with the 30/15 point score when returning, as it’s a fairly even battleground and you need only three points to break. But this analysis uncovers just how dominant the serve is. The biggest hole serving is actually not as deep as what you must encounter on the returning side of the equation.

Fifth seed Joao Sousa took another step in turning around his season on Tuesday, beating Belgian Steve Darcis 6-4, 6-4 at the J. Safra Sarasin Swiss Open Gstaad.

The Portuguese saved both break points and will meet Italian qualifier Gian Marco Moroni, who dismissed Spanish wild card Tommy Robredo 6-2, 6-2.

Sousa improved to 17-21 on the season, but he’s 6-2 in his last eight matches. The 30-year-old right-hander reached his second Round of 16 at a Grand Slam at Wimbledon (l. to Nadal) and the quarter-finals at the Swedish Open in Bastad last week.

Spain’s Jaume Munar will meet countryman and top seed Roberto Bautista Agut after rallying from a slow start against Tunisia’s Malek Jaziri 5-7, 6-3, 6-4. Munar, a semi-finalist at last year’s Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan, fell to the Wimbledon semi-finalist last year in Gstaad in three sets, their only FedEx ATP Head2Head encounter.

In other action, Japan’s Taro Daniel won 71 per cent (10/14) of his second-serve points to beat Italian qualifier Filippo Baldi 6-4, 6-4 and will next face 2014 champion Pablo Andujar of Spain.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas will meet fellow Spaniard and second seed Fernando Verdasco for a second straight week after routing Swiss Henri Laaksonen 6-0, 6-3, and Uzbekistan’s Denis Istomin will try to slow down Dusan Lajovic, last week’s Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag champion, after holding off Swiss wild card Marc-Andrea Huesler 6-3, 7-6(0).

The “Second-Serve Club” has just 18 eligible players so far in 2019, and Rafael Nadal is once again the runaway patriarch.

To be included, players need to have a winning percentage for the season on both Second-Serve Points Won and Second-Serve Return Points Won. It’s no easy task and highlights a specific area of our sport where players can forge an advantage against their opponents.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers breakdown of second-serve performance, when both serving and returning, uncovers just how impressive World No. 2 Rafael Nadal is in this specific area.

He leads the Tour in 2019 in both statistical categories by a significant margin.

Rafael Nadal: 2019 Season
No. 1: Second-Serve Return Points Won – 56.46%
No. 1: Second-Serve Points Won – 61.3%

When you add both of those percentages together, Nadal’s combined total equals 117.76. That’s head and shoulders above Novak Djokovic, who sits at 111.84. Hot on Djokovic’s tail is World No. 3 Roger Federer, with a combined total of 111.07.

Any time you see Nadal, Djokovic and Federer head a statistical category, it’s time to pay attention. These three players have dominated our sport for a generation, and are showing no signs of slowing down as they currently also occupy the top three spots in the ATP Rankings.

Fresh off the heels of a semi-final run at Wimbledon, Roberto Bautista Agut sits in the fourth spot with a 109.48 combined total. The Spaniard excelled when points started with second serves, winning 58 per cent (102/177) of his second-serve points and 59 per cent (146/249) of second-serve return points at SW19 this year.

Performance around second serves, whether serving or returning, takes into account more of the shots that immediately follow it, as second serves elicit far fewer return errors than first serves. For example, at Wimbledon, almost double the amount of first serves were unreturned over second serves.

2019 Wimbledon
Unreturned First Serves = 39% (6983/18020)
Unreturned Second Serves = 20% (1897/9502)

So when you see outstanding metrics around second serves or second-serve returns, you know the player is very strong defensively in Serve +1 and Return +1 situations. The server is typically on defence with his first shot after a second serve, while the returner is typically on offence with his return from a second serve.

It’s in these moments where Nadal shines the brightest.

2019 Season: Players With A Winning Record On Second- Serve Points Won & Second-Serve Return Points Won

Alexander Zverev broke down the game of in-form Chilean Nicolas Jarry on a sun-kissed Tuesday in an eagerly-anticipated first-round encounter at the Hamburg European Open. The second-seeded German, who made his big breakthrough at the ATP 500 tournament as a 17-year-old in 2014 when he reached the semi-finals, knocked out Jarry 6-4, 6-2 in 72 minutes.

“I had decided to go into the match much more aggressive than in the last encounters we played,” said Zverev. “If you let him into the match he is unbelievably good and can play very aggressively. When he has to move and run a bit, he might become a little worse, but all-in-all it was a very positive first round for me.”

Zverev broke twice in the first set, but could not convert three set points and was broken by last week’s Swedish Open titlist at 5-2. He then won 20 of 25 points from 1-2 in the second set en route to his 26th match win of the year. He will now prepare to face Italian Marco Cecchinato or Federico Delbonis of Argentina.

On 25 May, Zverev saved two championship points to beat Jarry at the Banque Eric Sturdza Geneva Open for the 11th ATP Tour title of his career. The 22-year-old is currently in ninth position in the 2019 ATP Race To London for a spot at the eight-match Nitto ATP Finals, where he is the defending champion. The season finale takes place at The O2 from 10-17 November. Buy Tickets

Zverev’s countryman Jan-Lennard Struff, the seventh seed, struck 10 aces and lost five of his first-service points to sweep past Brazilian qualifier Thiago Monteiro 6-1, 6-3 in 70 minutes. He will next play Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta, who defeated wild card Yannick Hanfmann of Germany 7-6(5), 6-4 in one hour and 42 minutes.

Dominic Thiem recorded the 250th match win of his career on Tuesday at the Hamburg European Open by beating 2016 runner-up Pablo Cuevas of Uruguay 6-3, 7-6(3) in one hour and 41 minutes. The top-seeded Austrian, who came within one point of taking a 4-0 lead in the first set, has now beaten Cuevas on three occasions this year — including at the Argentina Open and at Roland Garros. He next faces Hungary’s Marton Fucsovics in the second round.

Thiem is now 24-10 on the season, having bounced back from a Wimbledon first round exit (l. to Querrey). The 25-year-old lifted his first ATP Masters 1000 trophy at the BNP Paribas Open (d. Federer) in March and at the 500-level Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell (d. Medvedev) in April. Last month, he finished as runner-up to Rafael Nadal for the second consecutive year in the Roland Garros final.

“I wish that the grass court season would have been longer,” said Thiem. “I also love this surface, but it was only one match unfortunately. So, I hope that I can do it better next year. I’m back on clay for two weeks and the two last weeks of the year, so I’ll try to enjoy them as much as possible.”

Fourth seed Nikoloz Basilashvili began his quest to retain the Hamburg crown with a 6-4, 6-3 victory over Bolivian qualifier Hugo Dellien in 67 minutes. He will now prepare to challenge Cordoba Open champion Juan Ignacio Londero, last week’s Swedish Open finalist, who won 82 per cent of his first service points to beat Spanish lucky loser Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3, 6-2 in 66 minutes.

Richard Gasquet, the 2005 runner-up, set up a clash against fellow Frenchman Jeremy Chardy after beating Sumit Nagal, an Indian qualifier, 6-2, 7-6(3) in 90 minutes.

If any retired player knows that it’s like to compete against the Big Three of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, it’s Andy Roddick. And as he nears the seven-year anniversary of his retirement at the 2012 US Open, the former World No. 1 marvels at how some of his greatest rivals are still going strong.

“I think there’s such an appetite with the news cycle that’s out there and the availability of content, I think the natural shift is to what’s next. Everyone always wants to know what’s next. A story sits for two hours and then something happens the next day and it’s gone. Tennis is no different,” Roddick said before playing Robby Ginepri in an exhibition at the BB&T Atlanta Open on Monday evening. “I hope people sit back and enjoy, take a moment with these guys and the way they’re playing and what they’re doing to the record books. I hope people appreciate every last shot that these guys hit.”

At Wimbledon, World No. 1 Novak Djokovic defeated eight-time champion Roger Federer in a thrilling five-set final that went to a fifth-set tie-break at 12-12. Djokovic saved two championship points in the classic, becoming the first titlist at The Championships to save match points in the final since Robert Falkenburg in 1948.

“I was yelling at the TV, I was in the drama, I felt like a total fan. It’s hard to think that 10 years ago I was kind of having that same afternoon, but I just sit back and try to appreciate it,” Roddick said. “I’m watching and trying to figure out what they’re doing, what their strategies are, the adjustments that are being made and all the while I wish it was just talked about more in real time as far as what adjustments are being made, what’s different in the fifth set than what was going on in the second set, so it was interesting. I thought it was great.”

Roddick, who won five of his nine FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings with Djokovic, pointed out that the Serbian’s accomplishments have perhaps flown under the radar given Federer and Nadal’s success, when they should be recognised as well. Djokovic claimed his 16th Grand Slam title earlier this month.

“For Novak to go through Roger and Rafa [in] some of their prime years to get to where he is in the game [is impressive]. It’s been the Roger-Rafa show for a long time and now, oh, by the way, Novak’s sitting at 16 Grand Slams. So I don’t want people to undersell what he’s done,” Roddick said. “You start reeling off some of the names like McEnroe, Connors and Andre, they had seven, eight and eight Slams. Novak has 16. Then they go okay, and then the weight of those names and what he’s accomplished settles in.

“I hope people, one, appreciate what Novak has done and two, I think there’s certainly an appetite for what Roger and Rafa have accomplished.”

Although Ginepri defeated Roddick 1-6, 6-2, 10-7 at Atlantic Station, Roddick has plenty of special memories in this city. Both the first and last of the American’s 32 tour-level titles came in Atlanta. His first triumph here was when he was only 18, and his last came just about a month before announcing his retirement at Flushing Meadows.

“As far as pivotal moments early on, these seemed like the biggest events that had ever happened. So a lot of the history was right here in Atlanta,” Roddick said. “In 2012 when I was playing here, I didn’t know it was going to be my last run through the American summer. In the moment, it was very significant because I was trying to regain form after a tough start to the year. So it was significant in the present, but then in retrospect, having it be the last time I won, which I didn’t know at the time was being a possibility based on whether I was going to retire or not [was special]. So it’s always been a very special place.”

#NextGenATP Aussie Alexei Popyrin won nearly 70 per cent of his service points and beat American Denis Kudla 6-3, 6-4 on Monday at the BB&T Atlanta Open.

Popyrin, behind nine aces, improved to 7-11 on the season and will next meet fourth seed Pierre-Hugues Herbert of France. Popyrin, No. 95 in the ATP Rankings, broke into the Top 100 and reached a career-high of No. 91 on 15 July.

Brit Cameron Norrie fought past seventh seed Jordan Thompson of Australia 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-3 and will next meet the winner between South Korean qualifier Soonwoo Kwon and Indian Prajnesh Gunneswaran. American Bradley Klahn will face third seed Alex de Minaur after his 7-6(3), 7-5 win against Romanian Marius Copil.

Did You Know?
Popyrin, 19, is the third-youngest player in the Top 100 of the ATP Rankings. Fellow #NextGenATP 19-year-old Miomir Kecmanovic, the second-youngest competitor in the Top 100, is also in the Atlanta draw. He opens his tournament against American Jack Sock on Tuesday.