How much better is Rafael Nadal, who seeks his fourth title at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells this week, on clay courts over hard courts?

With the hard-court Miami Open presented by Itau and the clay-court Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters looming large in the next month, it’s a topic that naturally gets a lot of attention at this time of year.

The Spaniard has never won in Miami, but he has taken the title in Monte-Carlo a record 11 times, including the last three in a row. The results are night and day.

On the surface, Nadal is historically about 20 per cent better on clay, winning 92 per cent (415-36) of his clay-court matches and 77 per cent (442-130) of his hard-court matches throughout his career, which represents a 19.5 per cent increase.

But when you break matches down to points – the building blocks of our sport – you can make a solid case that the Spaniard is just 2.7 per cent better.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal’s winning percentage when returning serve on clay and hard uncovers that he does perform better on clay, but only marginally better than hard.

The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000s from 2011 to 2018 and the Nitto ATP Finals. The win percentages are calculated from returns put back in play, therefore aces and return errors are not included.

FIRST SERVE RETURNS

It’s jaw-dropping to uncover that Nadal is able to forge a winning percentage (50.6 per cent) on clay when he is able to get the first serve back in play. What’s interesting is that he is not that far away on hard court either, with a gap of just 2.1 percentage points, or 4.3 per cent.

SECOND SERVE RETURNS

The gap in win percentage is actually closer between hard and clay against second serves, with Nadal winning 2.5 per cent more on clay (2.1 percentage points).

With first serves and second serves combined, Nadal has won 53.7 per cent of return points on clay and 52.3 per cent on hard, representing a 1.4 percentage point gap, or a 2.7 per cent increase on clay.

Nadal is the ATP career leader on clay with both first serve and second serve return points won. On hard, he is ranked 23rd best against first serves, and 14th best against second serves.

We play a sport of incredibly small margins. A point here or there in Miami for Nadal over the years could have definitely led to more silverware to sit beside his impressive Monte-Carlo haul.

Philipp Kohlschreiber played a World No. 1 in only his second tour-level match. Seventeen years later, and on his 12th attempt, he finally got a win over the top player on the ATP Tour – defeating five-time champion Novak Djokovic in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open.

In his on-court interview, when asked how it felt to see his hard work still paying off at this stage of his career, the 35-year-old German joked to laughter and applause, “What do you mean, this stage? I’m just starting my career!”

In reality, Kohlschreiber has been making his mark on the ATP Tour since his debut in 2002. Among his accomplishments: reaching a career-high No. 16, winning eight singles and seven doubles titles, and becoming only the third German in the Open Era to record more than 400 match wins.

Here are five things to know about Kohlschreiber ahead of his fourth-round match against Gael Monfils on Wednesday in Indian Wells.

1. He’s done his best at home
Of Kohlschreiber’s eight singles titles, five have come in his native Germany – Munich (2007, 2012, 2016), 2011 Halle and 2014 Dusseldorf –  and two have come in his current residence of Kitzbuhel, Austria (2015, 2017). Four of his seven doubles titles have also come in Germany or Kitzbuhel.

“They are all special, but the first 5 Things To Know About Philipp Kohlschreiber in Munich in 2004 stands out, playing in front of the home crowd and in front of family and friends, was especially something special of course,” he said.

Since making his tour-level debut in 2002 in his hometown of Munich, Kohlschreiber has compiled a 123-65 match record in Germany (.654), including a victory over then-No. 2 Rafael Nadal in the 2012 Halle quarter-finals. In Kitzbuhel, he has a 18-9 match record (.667) – and on his most recent tournament appearance in 2018, he played a match on his wedding day.

2. He almost got that first win over a World No. 1 two years ago
Kohlschreiber first confronted a World No. 1 in only his second tour-level event, in May 2002 in Hamburg, and lost to Lleyton Hewitt 7-5, 6-4. He had an 0-11 record against World No. 1 opponents entering Tuesday’s match against Djokovic, but came oh-so-close to snapping that winless record two years ago.

With his 400th tour-level win on the line, Kohlschreiber held seven match points against No. 1 Andy Murray in the 2017 Dubai quarter-finals. Murray denied the German, prevailing 20/18 in the 31-minute second-set tie-break on his eighth set point, and eventually triumphed 6-7(4), 7-6(18), 6-1. “I’ll probably never play another tie-break like that again,” Murray said afterwards. “I have been playing on the tour for 11, 12 years now, and nothing’s been close to that.”

Read & Watch: Murray Downs Kohlschreiber In Dubai Thriller

3. Indian Wells has been good to him in recent years
Last year at the BNP Paribas Open, Kohlschreiber reached the quarter-finals before falling to eventual champion Juan Martin del Potro. He upset second seed Marin Cilic in the Round of 32, snapping a 12-match losing streak against Top 10 players.

A year before that in Indian Wells, Kohlschreiber celebrated his 400th match win. “It feels great, it means that I’m pretty old and have been on the tour for a long time,” he said at the time. “I hope I get the chance to go for 500.”

With victories this week over Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Nick Kyrgios and Djokovic, Kohlschreiber now has 456 match wins.

4. He’s in good company
Kohlschreiber is only one of three Germans to have won 400 or more matches in the Open Era. The other two? Boris Becker (713) and Tommy Haas (569), the current BNP Paribas Open Tournament Director.

“It really shows that Philipp been a part of the game for a long time and so consistent,” said countryman Mischa Zverev. “He’s been close to the Top 10 for many years and has beaten many top players. He can play well on any surface and I think he should get more recognition because he’s done a lot for the sport as a whole.”

5. He’s okay with flying under the radar
Kohlschreiber considers himself fortunate to be part of a generation that includes the likes of Roger Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, and can appreciate that he’s not in the spotlight at all times like his peers.

“I’m a very quiet guy,” he said. “Of course you wish to have maybe a Top 10 ranking once in your career, but if I’m not able to achieve that, I’m very happy how my life is going on.

“I’m still able to walk on the street or go to, I don’t know, McDonald’s and there is just a few guys saying, ‘Oh, that’s maybe Kohlschreiber.’ I’m able to do that. I don’t know if Roger or Rafa can do that. On this side, I’m very happy that I can really enjoy my life peacefully.”

But should more fame come with more success, Kohlschreiber would be fine with that, too. “Maybe I can turn around my career here. I don’t know. I’m still in the tournament feeling great, playing good tennis. Let’s see. You know, if you win the whole thing here, it might change,” he said with a smile.

A bet’s a bet, even if you’re one of the best #NextGenATP players on the ATP Tour and you’ve reached the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open.

After Denis Shapovalov beat Steve Johnson on Sunday, he agreed with Stadium 3 emcee Blair Henley that, if he won again on Stadium 3, he’d rap after the match. Shapovalov has posted videos online of himself rapping and says the hobby helps him relax and take his mind off tennis. 

On Tuesday, he beat Marin Cilic to reach the fourth round, and Henley compelled him to make good on their agreement.

“Are you regretting that decision,” she asked him.

“Definitely not ready, but I’ll give it a go,” Shapovalov said to a cheering crowd.

The stadium team cued up the music, and Shapovalov, who had prepared lyrics in advance, tried to go off memory. “I’m in Cali with my fans gettin’ hella lit… happy with the win today,” he said, before laughing and losing his train of thought.

A couple false starts later and some nerves – “Way too much pressure!” he shouted – had the 19-year-old searching for his phone, which helped him officially launch his rap career at an ATP Masters 1000 event.

“I’m here in Cali with the fans gettin’ hella lit. Happy with the win today, now I gotta float a spit. Lovin’ the support, I leave it all on the court. Fightin’ like a wolf, I’ll be back for more so take care and good night. Know that it’s the good life… Thursday we back, ight!?”

The crowd roared with approval. Friend and rival Aussie Nick Kyrgios, however, was not as impressed.

As much as you are an absolute gun, and gonna be crazy good for many many years, this was tough to watch my guy https://t.co/UCKGWWyLNm

— Nicholas Kyrgios (@NickKyrgios) March 12, 2019

But Shapovalov, who is into his first Indian Wells fourth round, doesn’t seem to mind what anyone thinks about his hobby.

“That was fun. That was cool… It’s just a fun little part of me,” Shapovalov said in his post-match press conference.

“I don’t mind ever rapping, but it’s just, it wasn’t easy after the match to find my thoughts, find the lyrics. I remember we were talking after my second-round match, and we just said, prepare something in case I win today.

“So I wrote down a couple of things, took me two, three minutes. Didn’t actually look at it until after the match today. So I was like, ‘Oh, my God, what are the lyrics again? What are the words?’”

He almost seemed more at ease during his 6-4, 6-2 rout of No. 11 Marin Cilic. Shapovalov, the 24^th seed, saved both break points and will face Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz on Wednesday for a place in the quarter-finals at the season’s first Masters 1000.

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