With first-round matches beginning on Thursday at the BNP Paribas Open, ATPTour.com looks at five unseeded players who could make plenty of noise in the draw.

Stan Wawrinka
After a relatively slow start to his comeback last year, Wawrinka is quickly rising back up the ATP Rankings in 2019. The Swiss star defeated Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori en route to a runner-up finish at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament (l. to Monfils), in addition to quarter-final showings at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open and Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC.

Wawrinka’s challenging draw could see him potentially face fourth seed Roger Federer in the third round, a rematch of the 2017 Indian Wells final. Although he is 3-21 in his FedEx ATP Head2Head with Federer, all of those wins have come in Masters 1000 events or Grand Slams.

Tomas Berdych
Berdych’s current form defies his current ATP Ranking of No. 81. He returned to action this season after missing seven months with a back injury, but didn’t need any time to shake off the match rust. The 33-year-old is 12-5 in 2019 after highlights including a runner-up finish in Doha (l. to Bautista Agut) and fourth-round showing at the Australian Open.

Berdych finds himself in a relatively favourable section of the draw that sees him avoiding any of the top four seeds until at least the quarter-finals. Should he and eighth seed John Isner progress to the fourth round, the Czech player leads their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry 7-2. The Czech player has reached at least the quarter-finals in Indian Wells on three occasions (2010, 2013, 2015) and is playing well enough to do it again

Frances Tiafoe
The #NextGenATP American created one of the biggest storylines this year by reaching the quarter-finals at the Australian Open, but he has gone 1-3 in ATP Tour events since then. However, Tiafoe always plays well on home soil and thrives on battling the world’s top players in big stadiums.

If the American can get through his section that includes No. 22 seed Kyle Edmund of Great Britain and No. 16 seed Fabio Fognini of Italy, he could face Federer in the fourth round. Although Tiafoe is winless against Federer in their three previous FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings, he pushed the Swiss star to five sets at the 2017 US Open and would relish the challenge.

Ivo Karlovic
At age 40, Karlovic is living proof that age truly is just a number. The Croatian pondered retirement at the end of last season, but is back in business after starting the year with a runner-up showing at the Tata Open Maharashtra (l. To Anderson).

Should he get through Aussie Matthew Ebden in the opening round, an intriguing all-Croatian second-round clash awaits with No. 11 seed Borna Coric.

Reilly Opelka
The 21-year-old American has jumped 40 spots in the ATP Rankings this year on the back of his first ATP Tour title at the New York Open (d. Schnur) and first Grand Slam main draw win at the Australian Open against Isner. At 6’11”, his big serve and booming forehand will be a daunting prospect for anyone he faces in the draw.

Opelka opens against Leonardo Mayer of Argentina and could have a entertaining second-round clash against No. 18 seed Gael Monfils.

With the Top 32 seeds all receiving byes, several unseeded players in first-round action have the potential to set up intriguing second-round clashes at the BNP Paribas Open.

(3) Alexander Zverev vs. Mischa Zverev 
Provided that Mischa moves past Martin Klizan of Slovakia in the first round, another Zverev battle will take place in the desert. Alexander won their only previous FedEx ATP Head2Head meeting last year at the Citi Open, but the contrast in playing styles and personalities would make this another entertaining encounter.

Alexander is in fine form having reached his first final of 2019 this past week at the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC) (l. To Kyrgios), but Mischa is still looking for his first win of the season (0-2).

(9) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (WC) Felix Auger-Aliassime
An all-#NextGenATP matchup will take place if Auger-Aliassime can defeat Cameron Norrie of Great Britain in the opening round. The Brit reached his first ATP 500 semi-final this past week in Acapulco (l. to A. Zverev).

Auger-Aliassime earned his wild card off a stellar February in Brazil, reaching the final of the Rio Open presented by Claro and quarter-finals at the Brasil Open (l. to Djere in both events). Those two weeks have led to a career-high ATP Ranking of No. 58. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas became the first Greek player to crack the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings on the back of outstanding results this season that include winning the Open 13 Provence (d. Kukushkin), finishing runner-up at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships (l. to Federer) and advancing to his first Grand Slam semi-final at the Australian Open (l. to Nadal).

The BNP Paribas Open is already Tsitsipas’ seventh ATP Tour event of 2019 and he’s played 20 matches this season (15-5), so the only concern for the 20-year-old Greek is whether the backlog of matches will finally catch up with him.

(12) Karen Khachanov vs. Tomas Berdych
Berydch returned to the tour this season after sitting out seven months with a back injury, but he has picked up where he left off. The Czech player is 12-5 after finishing runner-up in Doha (l. to Bautista Agut) and reaching the semi-finals in Montpellier (l. to Herbert).

If Berdych can get through an all-veteran battle in the opening round against Feliciano Lopez of Spain, his clash against Khachanov has the potential for an upset. The Russian is 4-5 this year and has yet to defeat a player inside the Top 60 of the ATP Rankings, but his dominant end to last season by defeating Novak Djokovic to win the Rolex Paris Masters shows he’s capable of beating anyone when he’s on.

(22) Kyle Edmund vs. Frances Tiafoe 
The Brit started 2019 off slowly after suffering a knee injury at the end of last season, but is riding high after winning last week’s ATP Challenger Tour event in Indian Wells. Meanwhile, Tiafoe seeks to reclaim the form that took him to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open. Since his outstanding run Down Under, he has gone 1-3 in ATP Tour events.

The #NextGenATP American will first need to defeat Nicolas Jarry of Chile in order to set up the showdown with Edmund. Tiafoe and Edmund’s lone FedEx ATP Head2Head meeting saw the American prevail in a third-set tie-break last year at the Miami Open, and a battle between them in the desert should see another competitive scoreline.

(25) Denis Shapovalov vs. Taylor Fritz
Should Fritz come through an all-American opening-round clash against Steve Johnson, a battle between two of the most entertaining young stars in tennis will take place in the second round. Shapovalov has produced consistent results to start the year, with two ATP Tour quarter-finals and a third-round finish at the Australian Open, while Fritz recorded a Top 10 win over John Isner at the ASB Classic.

The #NextGenATP Canadian won their only previous FedEx ATP Head2Head meeting last year in Delray Beach, but both men are equally capable of picking up a victory if they meet again.

The BNP Paribas Open may take place in the California desert, but the draw is flooded with potential early-round blockbusters.

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic could play Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC winner Nick Kyrgios in the third round, while five-time champion Roger Federer could face compatriot and former World No. 3 Stan Wawrinka at the same stage of this ATP Masters 1000 event.

The potential third-round Djokovic-Kyrgios clash pits two of the most in-form players on the ATP Tour. Djokovic is firmly the No. 1 player in the ATP Rankings, competing for the first time since winning his seventh Australian Open crown in January. But last week, Kyrgios showed his ability to compete with anyone on the ATP Tour, defeating a slew of stars, including World No. 2 Rafael Nadal and reigning Nitto ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev, to triumph in Acapulco.

If Kyrgios gets by the winner between Philipp Kohlschreiber/Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the second round and Djokovic defeats a qualifier, the Aussie will also take confidence knowing he ousted Djokovic in Indian Wells two years ago. In fact, Kyrgios has won both of his FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings against Djokovic.

Watch Highlights Of Kyrgios’ First Meeting Against Djokovic:

The winner of that clash could potentially face in-form 18th seed Gael Monfils. The Frenchman has found his entertaining best of late, reentering the Top 20 this week for the first time since July 2017. Monfils won three three-setters en route to the Rotterdam title in February. Seventh seed Dominic Thiem is the second highest-ranked player in Djokovic’s quarter.

In the third quarter of the draw, Federer and Wawrinka could meet for the 25th time in their rivalry if they both advance to the third round. Fourth-seeded Federer may lead countryman Wawrinka 21-3, but all three of Wawrinka’s wins against the 100-time tour-level titlist have come at a Grand Slam or a Masters 1000 event.

The pair has met three times at Indian Wells (2011, 2013, 2017), with Federer dropping just one of seven sets. The Swiss beat Wawrinka to claim his fifth trophy here two years ago. Federer, who has a bye, will face Italian Andreas Seppi or German Peter Gojowczyk in the second round, while Wawrinka will clash with a qualifier for the right to play 29th seed Marton Fucsovics.

Watch Roger Beat Stan For the 2017 Indian Wells Title:

There is plenty of more talent in Federer’s quarter, with four Grand Slam semi-finalists in the section: sixth seed Kei Nishikori, No. 10 seed Marin Cilic, 22nd seed Kyle Edmund and No. 28 seed Lucas Pouille. #NextGenATP stars Denis Shapovalov and Frances Tiafoe also loom.

The first seeded opponent World No. 2 Nadal could face is 25th seed Diego Schwartzman, against whom he has never lost in six previous meetings. Nadal, who will battle American Jared Donaldson or a qualifier in his opener, could play in-form Russian Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round. Other seeded players in his quarter include 2018 Nitto ATP Finals qualifier John Isner and 12th seed Karen Khachanov.

One year ago, Zverev lost in his opening match at Indian Wells. But the third seed, who has never made the quarter-finals in the desert, will try to make a deep run in 2019. The German may face his older brother, Mischa Zverev — who opens against Martin Klizan — in the second round. The younger Zverev triumphed in their first FedEx ATP Head2Head match last year at the Citi Open.

Another third-round blockbuster could await, as Zverev may play 2017 Nitto ATP Finals champion Grigor Dimitrov, the 26th seed. Three years ago, Zverev needed two hours and 20 minutes to beat Dimitrov 7-5 in a final set at Indian Wells (Zverev leads their series 2-1).

Watch A Hot Shot From Dimitrov-Zverev At 2016 Indian Wells:

That’s not the only hurdle Zverev might have to leap over, though, as the entire section is loaded. Fifth seed and Pune winner Kevin Anderson is the next highest-ranked player in the quarter, which includes four additional 2019 ATP Tour champions: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Marseille), Roberto Bautista Agut (Doha), Alex de Minaur (Syndey) and Laslo Djere (Rio de Janeiro).

Tsitsipas, who triumphed at the Open 13 Provence, made the final of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and advanced to his first Grand Slam semi-final at the Australian Open, could face Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime in a popcorn all-#NextGenATP second-round battle. Auger-Aliassime is fresh off reaching his first ATP Tour final in Rio de Janeiro, and after starting the year outside of the Top 100 of the ATP Rankings, he’s up to a career-high No. 58.

Did You Know?
Defending champion Juan Martin del Potro is not defending his title to further rehab his right knee.

February is the busiest month on the ATP Tour, with 12 tournaments in eight countries across four continents. The month backed up its reputation with plenty of storylines for fans to follow. Below are five of the most-read ATPTour.com stories from February.

1. Blood, Sweat And Cramps: Kyrgios Defeats Wawrinka In Acapulco Thriller
Even the mercurial Aussie could not have seen this coming. Kyrgios had fallen to No. 72 in the ATP Rankings, his lowest spot since June 2014, and he hadn’t beaten a Top 5 opponent since January 2018 at the Brisbane International (d. then-No. 3 Dimitrov).

But in Acapulco, Kyrgios saved three match points and beat No. 2 Rafael Nadal and then backed up his match of the year with a tough three-set win against former World No. 3 Stan Wawrinka.

For Kyrgios, his match with Wawrinka started with blood – from his hands – featured some cramps – from his legs – but ended in victory.

2. Federer Surprises Lindsey Vonn With Retirement Congrats
Retirement can jolt the best of athletes, but a call from Roger Federer would surely help them all ease into the unknown. Alpine skiing great Lindsey Vonn finished her final run on 10 February, and a pre-recorded message from the Swiss was waiting for her.

“Hey, Lindsey, it’s me. Many, many congratulations on a wonderful career. I know you tried everything the last few months to get ready. I was thinking of you. I was watching you,” Federer said.

“I saw the fall, as well, in the super-G a few days ago. I was really feeling sorry. I was sitting there with my children and hoping for you. So I just wanted to say, well done. You can be so, so proud.

“And I hope you enjoy this moment even though it might be a little bit sad for you right now. Take care, bye, bye.”

Vonn shared her shock at receiving the message, and vowed to attend Wimbledon in July to see Federer go for his ninth title at the All-England Club.

3. Federer Maintains Historic Bid, Battles Past Verdasco In Dubai
The anticipation had been building, really, ever since the Swiss won tour-level title No. 99 at the Swiss Indoors Basel last October: When would Federer join American Jimmy Connors as the only two players to have won 100 tour-level titles?

So of course the tennis world followed how Federer was faring at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, where, on Saturday, he answered the question with a straight-sets win against Greece’s #NextGenATP star Stefanos Tsitsipas. Read Match Report

After his 50^th victory at the ATP 500, Federer expressed relief – a feeling he’d know well in Dubai by Saturday evening. “I was like, ‘Phew, 50, a lot of tennis here in Dubai,” Federer said. “I’m very happy. It’s a big number.”

4. Monfils Beats Wawrinka In Rotterdam For Eighth ATP Tour Crown
Few words will draw more excitement from tennis fans than “Gael Monfils Hot Shot”. And the Frenchman had plenty of “Are you kidding me?” shots in Rotterdam, but the ATP 500 also required top-level tennis from the 32-year-old, which he brought in full supply.

Monfils overcame a mid-match dip against Stan Wawrinka to improve to 8-21 in tour-level finals and hoist his first ATP Tour trophy since 2018 Doha. The Frenchman evened his FedEx ATP Head2Head with Wawrinka to 3-3 and denied the Swiss his second title at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament (2015).

5. Murray Injury Update: Judy Talks Andy’s Comeback Chances
We know Andy Murray has undergone another hip surgery, but will he be returning to the ATP Tour? His mum, Judy Murray, thinks so.

“I think he will [return], [but] I think he’s aware it might not possible,” she said to the Associated Press. “He’s a smart guy. He has a lot of interest in different things [and] he has a lot of options in life after tennis.”

Murray last played at the Australian Open, falling in five sets in the first round to eventual quarter-finalist Roberto Bautista Agut of Spain.

Roger Federer made history on Saturday evening, winning the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships to become the second man in the Open Era to reach 100 tour-level titles, joining Jimmy Connors (109).

In his own words, the 37-year-old Swiss looks back on some of his biggest milestone titles.

Title No. 1, 2001 Milan
Final: Defeated Julien Boutter 6-4, 6-7(7), 6-4

“I’d lost my previous two finals, in the Marseille final and Basel final, so I really wanted to win my first ATP title. That was a big week for me. I beat some great players along the way to get there,” the Swiss recalled.

Federer defeated Goran Ivanisevic and Yevgeny Kafelnikov in the quarter-finals and semi-finals, respectively, before defeating Julien Boutter to earn his maiden moment.

“That was great fun and then beating Boutter in the final, I felt like I had pressure because maybe I went into that final as a little bit of a favourite,” Federer said. “But it was fast indoors and Boutter was a big server, so you never knew what was going to happen.”

“I have a really small space in the career of Federer. I am the first one to lose in a final against him. But many guys did the same as me,” Boutter said, cracking a laugh.

“I think [it was] more of a relief than actual joy and happiness. I think that kicked in like 24 hours later,” Federer recalled. “I remember what I said, that at least I have one. I never thought I’d make so many wins.”

Title No. 25, 2005 Dubai
Final: Defeated Ivan Ljubicic 6-1, 6-7(6), 6-3

Ahead of the 2005 tournament, Federer and Andre Agassi went to the top of the Burj Al Arab to play sky-high tennis on a helipad. “It was the iconic shot that went around the world,” said Federer.

The two players would meet in the semi-finals, where Federer recalled another memorable shot against the American. “On break point, I hit one of the most ridiculous shots I’ve ever hit. I remember it was sort of a flick lob on break point. You can see by my reaction, I started laughing after the point… It’s still one of my favourite, best shots of all-time for me in my career.”

The Swiss, who survived his two opening matches by prevailing in a third-set tie-break, faced current coach Ivan Ljubicic in the final. Although it was only the second month of the season, the match was already their third clash for a title.

Ljubicic joked during the trophy ceremony: “I’m a little bit sick of this guy.”

“He always thinks I was very lucky,” said Federer with a laugh. “But he’s joking of course. Or maybe not, I’ll have to check.”

Watch Roger’s Hot Shot Against Agassi:

Title No. 50, 2007 Cincinnati
Final: Defeated James Blake 6-1, 6-4

Federer arrived at the Western & Southern Open fresh off a disappointing third-set tie-break loss in the Montreal final against Novak Djokovic. In the semi-finals, the Swiss battled past former World No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt in a final-set tie-break, giving him a chance to take home title No. 50 against home favourite James Blake.

“I remember the final against James Blake. It was a good one. I think I came out of the blocks very fast, served well, got the one break I needed and then served it home,” Federer said. “It was my 50th, so it was a big one.”

It was Federer’s second of seven triumphs in Cincinnati.

“Cincinnati [is] one of my favourite hunting grounds on the [ATP] Tour,” Federer said. “I’ve always played very well there.”

Title No. 75, 2012 Wimbledon
Final: Defeated Andy Murray 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 (Read More)

The Swiss star arrived at Wimbledon having not lifted a Grand Slam trophy since the 2010 Australian Open. But Federer defeated World No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals, and fended off Andy Murray’s efforts to end Great Britain’s 76-year wait for a home-grown Wimbledon champion.

“Massive tournament for me. Also brought me back to World No. 1,” Federer said. “The Wimbledon win was epic for me. It was great to see my girls there at the trophy ceremony. That was very emotional for me.

“It was a tough one, because it was also played outdoors and then indoors with the rain, under the roof. That was special. And I played a great semis against Novak. I finished very strong that year.”

Federer joined William Renshaw and Pete Sampras as the only seven-time winners at the All England Club, adding to his triumphs in 2003-2007 and 2009.

Follow Roger’s Media Tour After His 2012 Wimbledon Win:

Title No. 100, 2019 Dubai
Final: Defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-4 (Read & Watch)

In October 2018, Federer triumphed in Basel at his hometown tournament to lift trophy No. 99. From then on, the countdown to No. 100 began. 

At the 2019 Australian Open, Federer was stunned in the fourth round by #NextGenATP Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas. That was his third tournament since Basel. But the fourth event proved the charm and, fittingly enough, Federer beat Tsitsipas in the final to join Connors in the ‘100 Club’.

“Sitting here today, having won 100, it’s disbelief. Then last year, after reaching 96, 97, I started feeling maybe 100 was possible, and it was,” Federer said. “I’d like to thank the team, everyone who’s made it possible for myself. I’m privileged still to be playing this sport right now today.”

How much do top-tier players adjust their strategies against left-handed opponents?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 focuses on return direction back to the opponent’s Serve +1 forehand or backhand, which naturally change sides of the court against a left-handed or right-handed server.

The results are compelling and highlight which side of the equation each player is on when it comes to answering the following question: Is it more important to hit the ball where you want to hit it, or more important to hit it where your opponent does not want it?

The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000s and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2018, and is specific to the following two criteria:

• Returning a second serve.

• The second serve is directed wide in the Ad court.

These two criteria were chosen as the returner has more control of his return direction versus a second serve, and if the serve is wide in the Ad court, both cross and down the line are viable options.

Return Direction vs. Right-Handed Server
As expected, every player in the Top 10 primarily directed the wide second serve return back crosscourt to the right-hander’s Serve +1 backhand.

Juan Martin del Potro stuck to this strategy the most, directing 91 per cent of his Ad court wide returns crosscourt. Both John Isner and Kei Nishikori mixed the most, with 64 per cent crosscourt and 36 per cent down the line to the Serve +1 forehand.

Current Top 10: Returning Direction vs. Right-Handed Server

Return Direction vs. Left-Handed Server
This is where gamestyle, opponent awareness, specific strategies and prowess with the backhand return all come into play.

Four of the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings changed the primary return direction down the line to stick with the common strategy of making the server have to hit a Serve +1 backhand. Roger Federer hit the most down the line (71%), followed by Rafael Nadal (59%), Isner (56%) and Novak Djokovic (55%). Kevin Anderson was equal with a 50-50 ratio.

Current Top 10: Returning Direction vs Left-Handed Server

Interestingly, players such as Marin Cilic, Del Potro and Alexander Zverev led the way with backing their aggressive returns crosscourt, where they like to hit it, not concerned that it was going to the left-hander’s Serve +1 forehand.

Overall, the Top 10 averaged directing 79 per cent of returns crosscourt against right-handers, but only 58 per cent against left-handers. That definitely highlights an adjustment versus left-handed servers.

Sometimes, the return crosscourt is so dominant that it doesn’t really matter what’s waiting for it. Other times, it’s all about the age-old strategy of trying to make your opponent hit as many backhands as possible.