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Why Federer Changes His Strategy Against Nadal

  • Posted: Mar 05, 2019

Why Federer Changes His Strategy Against Nadal

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers investigates where players deliver their second-serve returns

How much do top-tier players adjust their strategies against left-handed opponents?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 focuses on return direction back to the opponent’s Serve +1 forehand or backhand, which naturally change sides of the court against a left-handed or right-handed server.

The results are compelling and highlight which side of the equation each player is on when it comes to answering the following question: Is it more important to hit the ball where you want to hit it, or more important to hit it where your opponent does not want it?

You May Also Like: Why You Can’t Let The Big Three Put Their First-Serve Returns In Play

The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000s and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2018, and is specific to the following two criteria:

  • Returning a second serve.

  • The second serve is directed wide in the Ad court.

These two criteria were chosen as the returner has more control of his return direction versus a second serve, and if the serve is wide in the Ad court, both cross and down the line are viable options.

Return Direction vs. Right-Handed Server
As expected, every player in the Top 10 primarily directed the wide second serve return back crosscourt to the right-hander’s Serve +1 backhand.

Juan Martin del Potro stuck to this strategy the most, directing 91 per cent of his Ad court wide returns crosscourt. Both John Isner and Kei Nishikori mixed the most, with 64 per cent crosscourt and 36 per cent down the line to the Serve +1 forehand.

Current Top 10: Returning Direction vs. Right-Handed Server

Position

Player

Return cross to Ad Court (to the righty backhand)

Return line to the Deuce Court (to the righty forehand)

1

J.M. Del Potro

91%

9%

2

M. Cilic

87%

13%

3

A. Zverev

84%

16%

4

N. Djokovic

84%

16%

5

R. Nadal

84%

16%

6

K. Anderson

80%

20%

7

R. Federer

78%

22%

8

D. Thiem

72%

28%

9

K. Nishikori

64%

36%

10

J. Isner

64%

36%

AVERAGE

79%

21%

Return Direction vs. Left-Handed Server
This is where gamestyle, opponent awareness, specific strategies and prowess with the backhand return all come into play.

Four of the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings changed the primary return direction down the line to stick with the common strategy of making the server have to hit a Serve +1 backhand. Roger Federer hit the most down the line (71%), followed by Rafael Nadal (59%), Isner (56%) and Novak Djokovic (55%). Kevin Anderson was equal with a 50-50 ratio.

Current Top 10: Returning Direction vs Left-Handed Server

Position

Player

Return cross to Ad Ct (to the lefty forehand)

Return line to the Deuce Ct (to the lefty backhand)

1

R. Federer

29%

71%

2

R. Nadal

42%

59%

3

J. Isner

44%

56%

4

N. Djokovic

45%

55%

5

K. Anderson

50%

50%

6

D. Thiem

60%

40%

7

K. Nishikori

61%

39%

7

A. Zverev

71%

29%

9

J.M. Del Potro

86%

14%

10

M. Cilic

89%

11%

AVERAGE

58%

42%

Interestingly, players such as Marin Cilic, Del Potro and Alexander Zverev led the way with backing their aggressive returns crosscourt, where they like to hit it, not concerned that it was going to the left-hander’s Serve +1 forehand.

Overall, the Top 10 averaged directing 79 per cent of returns crosscourt against right-handers, but only 58 per cent against left-handers. That definitely highlights an adjustment versus left-handed servers.

Sometimes, the return crosscourt is so dominant that it doesn’t really matter what’s waiting for it. Other times, it’s all about the age-old strategy of trying to make your opponent hit as many backhands as possible.

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Queen's: Nick Kyrgios wants to emulate Andy Murray at Fever-Tree Championships

  • Posted: Mar 05, 2019

Australian Nick Kyrgios says he wants to emulate his good friend Andy Murray by winning the Queen’s title as he targets grass-court success this year.

Kyrgios, 23, won his first ATP title in 14 months last week, beating three top-10 players – including Rafael Nadal – on way to victory at the Mexican Open.

The world number 33 has confirmed he will return to Queen’s in June.

“The courts are perfect, they suit my game and if I go well it will set me up perfectly for Wimbledon,” he said.

  • Kyrgios ‘went jet-skiing’ before Acapulco final

The Fever-Tree Championships take place between 17-23 June, with BBC Sport providing live coverage from the west London club across television, radio and online.

British number one Kyle Edmund, 24, is also set to play at the ATP 500 event, along with 20-year-old Greek star Stefanos Tsitsipas – who has climbed into the world’s top 10 for the first time – and Croatia’s defending champion Marin Cilic.

Former world number one Andy Murray has a career-long commitment to the tournament, but his participation is in doubt after he had surgery on his hip last month.

Wimbledon starts at the All England Club a fortnight later on 1 July.

‘I know what I can do if I’m feeling good, and I want to show that on the grass at Queen’s and Wimbledon this year,” Kyrgios added.

“The Fever-Tree Championships is a great event, one of my good mates Andy Murray won the title five times there, so that shows how important it is.”

Murray, 31, won the title in 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2016.

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Indian Wells: Katie Boulter wins in BNP Paribas Open qualifying

  • Posted: Mar 05, 2019

British number two Katie Boulter is one win away from the Indian Wells main draw after beating American Allie Kiick in qualifying.

Boulter, 22, won 7-5 5-7 6-2 in two hours and 19 minutes.

The world number 85, who is seeded sixth, will face Switzerland’s Viktorija Golubic in the second qualifying round on Tuesday.

British number three Heather Watson, 26, lost 6-2 6-7 (3-7) 6-4 to Italy’s Sara Errani.

World number 113 Watson, whose only two wins this year came in Hobart qualifying in January, saved three match points in the second set and led 4-2 in the last.

But she lost four games in a row as 2012 French Open finalist Errani sealed victory in two hours and 34 minutes.

British number one Johanna Konta – ranked 45th in the world – has direct entry into the draw and will face France’s world number 54 Pauline Parmentier in the first round on Wednesday.

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Watch The Stars Practise At Indian Wells

  • Posted: Mar 05, 2019

Watch The Stars Practise At Indian Wells

Watch streams of the practise courts at the first ATP Masters 1000 event of the season

Are you excited for the BNP Paribas Open? You can watch your favourite stars practise ahead of the tournament. Watch below:

Practice Court 1

Practice Court 2

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Which Face Do Fans Think Is Missing From This Picture?

  • Posted: Mar 04, 2019

Which Face Do Fans Think Is Missing From This Picture?

#NextGenATP Greek Tsitsipas is sixth most popular pick thus far

Stefanos Tsitsipas closed out his 2018 with his biggest win yet, triumphing at the Next Gen ATP Finals. Now, after beginning 2019 by reaching the Australian Open semi-finals, lifting the trophy at the Open 13 Provence and this week cracking the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings for the first time, fans believe that the Greek may be on his way to this year’s Nitto ATP Finals.

Fans have been provided with an opportunity to pick the eight players they believe will qualify for this year’s season finale. So far, Tsitsipas is the sixth hottest pick of the entire slate of ATP Tour stars.

Pick the eight players you think will qualify for the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals and you could win the ultimate trip for two to London to attend this year’s season finale.

From the votes that have come in, 51.2 per cent of fans believe that Tsitsipas will qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals. While it is early in the year, the 20-year-old is second in the ATP Race To London, trailing only World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, who 98.9 per cent of fans believe will make his 12th appearance at the season finale.

The Fans’ Top 8 Picks For London

 Player  % Of Fans Selecting Them
 1. Novak Djokovic  98.9%
 2. Rafael Nadal  95.4%
 3. Roger Federer  91.0%
 4. Alexander Zverev  89.2%
 5. Kei Nishikori  56.0%
 6. Stefanos Tsitsipas   51.2%
 7. Marin Cilic  47.8%
 8. Juan Martin del Potro  45.6%

Tsitsipas might have fallen short against World No. 4 Roger Federer in the final of the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, but they may clash again in London. So far, 45.6 per cent of fans have selected Federer and Tsitsipas as two of their eight choices to reach The O2. They have split their first two FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings this season, with Tsitsipas upsetting the 37-year-old Swiss in the fourth round of the Australian Open.

If Tsitsipas maintains his pace and earns his spot at the Nitto ATP Finals, he will become the first player to compete at the Next Gen ATP Finals and then make the Nitto ATP Finals the next year. Karen Khachanov and Borna Coric were close to accomplishing the feat in 2018, finishing 11th and 12th in the ATP Race To London, respectively.

World No. 3 Alexander Zverev earned his biggest title in London last year on just his second appearance. The fans overwhelmingly believe the German will have a chance to retain his trophy, with 89.2 per cent of voters selecting Zverev to qualify. World No. 2 Nadal is a nearly unanimous pick to compete at the Nitto ATP Finals for the ninth time, with 95.4 per cent of voters selecting the Spaniard.

The Most Popular 2019 London Combination As Voted By Fans Thus Far: Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin del Potro, Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, Kei Nishikori, Dominic Thiem, Zverev. 

<a href='https://www.atptour.com/en/players/stefanos-tsitsipas/te51/overview'>Stefanos Tsitsipas</a> at the 2019 ATP Tour photoshoot.

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Reliving Federer's Five Indian Wells Titles

  • Posted: Mar 04, 2019

Reliving Federer’s Five Indian Wells Titles

ATPTour.com looks back at Federer’s handful of BNP Paribas Open titles

Roger Federer heads to Indian Wells once more on the doorsteps of history. The five-time BNP Paribas Open champion can break a tie with Novak Djokovic for the most titles won at the ATP Masters 1000 event.

Federer reached the final last year and had three match points, but Juan Martin del Potro saved them all and won his first Masters 1000 trophy. ATPTour.com looks back at Federer’s five Indian Wells triumphs.

1. 2004: No. 1 Federer d. No. 10 Tim Henman 6-3, 6-3
Federer had won 28 of his past 30 matches, dating back to the 2003 Rolex Paris Masters, heading into the final against Tim Henman. Federer won titles in Houston, Melbourne (his second Grand Slam title) and Dubai.

The only two matches the Swiss had dropped during that stretch before his trip out west were indoors against Henman. Under controlled conditions, the Brit upset Federer in straight sets both times, in Paris and Rotterdam, and he had six reasons to believe it’d happen again in the California desert. Henman led their FedEx ATP Head2Head series 6-1.

But the No. 1 player in the ATP Rankings didn’t face a break point and won his second Masters 1000 title. He’d go on to win two more and the Nitto ATP Finals that season.

2. 2005 Final: No. 1 Federer d. No. 2 Lleyton Hewitt 6-2, 6-4, 6-4
A repeat at the Australian Open eluded Federer in 2005, when he fell to eventual champion Marat Safin in the semi-finals. But the Swiss still hoisted three titles en route to Indian Wells, wearing Sunday smiles in Doha, Rotterdam and Dubai.

All three times Federer beat one of his current coaches, Ivan Ljubicic, during the event, and he made it four out of five tournaments to start the year by eliminating the Croatian in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open.

Hewitt, the 2002-03 Indian Wells champion, was riding a tsunami of confidence. The Aussie won the Sydney International, reached the Australian Open final and beat then-No. 3 Andy Roddick in three tie-break sets to make the Indian Wells title match.

From 1999-2003, Hewitt had won seven of his first nine FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings against Federer. But in 2004, the Swiss began his domination against Hewitt, and it continued in the best-of-five final. Federer didn’t drop a set all tournament, and he’d win 16 of his 18 final matches against the Aussie.

Federer was beginning another magical season. He’d finish with 11 titles, including four Masters 1000s.

Watch Hot Shot: Hewitt Wins Unreal Point Against Federer In Indian Wells

3. 2006 Final: No. 1 Federer d. No. 14 James Blake 7-5, 6-3, 6-0
A BNP Paribas Open three-peat eluded Roscoe Tanner, Boris Becker, Pete Sampras, Michael Chang and Hewitt, but Federer, fresh off his second consecutive year-end No. 1 finish in the ATP Rankings, breezed into history.

He dropped only one set – against Olivier Rochus in the third round – bringing his total number of sets lost from 2004-06 in Indian Wells to a whopping two. Blake was on his way to reaching a career-high ATP Ranking of No. 4 and had beaten Nadal in the semi-finals. But the American, after taking an early lead in the first, couldn’t pester Federer. Neither could anyone else on the ATP Tour 13 years ago.

Federer’s 2006:

  • Sunshine Double for second consecutive season

  • Three Grand Slams – Australian Open, Wimbledon, US Open

  • Four ATP Masters 1000s – Indian Wells, Miami, Canada, Madrid

  • 12 tour-level titles, including his third Nitto ATP Finals crown

  • 92-5 record

Watch Highlights: Federer Beats Blake For Three-Peat In Indian Wells

4. 2012 Final: No. 3 Federer d. No. 11 John Isner 7-6(7), 6-3
Federer hadn’t been back to the BNP Paribas Open final since 2006, but he did not lack titles. The Swiss again swept Rotterdam (d. Del Potro) and Dubai (d. Murray), and although Nadal halted him from playing for his fifth Australian Open title, revenge would soon be Federer’s.

He knocked out Milos Raonic, Juan Martin del Potro and Nadal to reach his fourth Indian Wells final. John Isner saved him from having to beat two of the Big Four in one tournament by upsetting Novak Djokovic, the World No. 1 and defending champion, whom beat Federer in the 2011 semi-finals.

The American had beaten Federer one month earlier on clay in Switzerland during a Davis Cup tie, but he couldn’t touch him in Indian Wells. The Swiss dropped only two first-serve points and saved all three break points faced. Federer tied Nadal’s then-record of 19 Masters 1000 titles, and he’d go onto win six titles overall in 2012, his most since 2007.

Watch Highlights: Federer Beats Isner For Fourth Indian Wells Title

5. 2017 Final: No. 10 Federer d. No. 3 Stan Wawrinka 6-4, 7-5
Two years ago, Federer was living his fairytale comeback season. He missed the second half of the 2016 season to rest his left knee, and all he did in Melbourne, during his first tournament in six months, was win seven matches in a row and capture his first Grand Slam in almost five years, beating Nadal in the final.

Indian Wells was another test, and the draw gods could have been accused of first-degree conspiracy against the Swiss. Federer, the ninth seed, had been drawn in the “Group of Death”. In the same quarter sat Federer, Nadal, Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev, Del Potro and Djokovic.

Read & Watch: Federer Wins Fifth Indian Wells Title

But the Swiss navigated the early rounds successfully, beating Stephane Robert and Steve Johnson to face Nadal in the fourth round. The Spaniard led their FedEx ATP Head2Head series 23-12, but Federer used the same aggressive plan – hitting through the backhand – that helped him beat Nadal in Australia, and he slid into the quarter-finals in straight sets.

The four-time champion received a walkover in the last eight and sailed past American Jack Sock before meeting countryman and friend Stan Wawrinka in the final.

Wawrinka beat Federer during their only prior Masters 1000 final at the 2014 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, but Stan has never been ‘The Man’ against Federer on hard courts, and Federer (35) became the oldest Masters 1000 champion since Andre Agassi at the 2004 Western & Southern Open.

Watch Highlights: Federer Beats Wawrinka For Fifth Title

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How Big Of An Indian Wells Tennis Fan Are You?

  • Posted: Mar 04, 2019

How Big Of An Indian Wells Tennis Fan Are You?

Test your knowledge of the BNP Paribas Open among the best tennis fans in the world

Click here to stay informed all year with tennis news from the ATP Tour.

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