In his 10th Grand Slam fourth-round appearance, Roberto Bautista Agut finally reached his first major quarter-final on Sunday at the Australian Open.

The 30-year-old Spaniard defeated last year’s runner-up Marin Cilic 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, after three hours and 58 minutes, to record his second victory in six FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings against the Croatian. Unbeaten in 2019, Bautista Agut joins Alex de Minaur at the top of the list for most tour-level match wins this year (9). In the opening week of the 2019 season, Bautista Agut claimed his ninth ATP Tour title at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open, beating Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych in consecutive matches to lift the trophy.

Bautista Agut also needed five sets to beat Andy Murray and John Millman in the opening two rounds in Melbourne, before defeating 10th seed Karen Khachanov in straight sets. The 22nd seed will meet two-time defending champion Roger Federer or #NextGenATP Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas for a place in the semi-finals. Bautista Agut is yet to beat Federer in eight FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings and has never faced Tsitsipas at tour-level.

After dropping his serve at 4-4 in the opening set, Cilic increased his aggression to charge back. The Croatian hit with greater power and moved up the court to reach 5-5, before taking control of the tie-break. After failing to convert four set points from 6/2, Cilic trusted his forehand on back-to-back points to take the first set.

But Bautista Agut responded in the second set, proving the more consistent player in baseline rallies to earn the only break, at 4-3, and level the match. The Spaniard carried the momentum into the third set, varying the pace on his groundstrokes to extract baseline errors from his opponent. Bautista Agut won eight of nine second-serve return points to gain two service breaks and move one set from the quarter-finals.

Cilic responded well in the fourth set, dropping just seven points behind his serve to reach 5-4. The 2014 US Open champion then capitalised on a series of unforced errors before hitting his 14th winner of the set, on his forehand, to level the match.

But it was to be Bautista Agut’s day, as the Spaniard benefitted from two double faults in the ninth game of the decider before breaking serve with a forehand winner. The Doha champion then served out the match to 15 after rushing Cilic into a backhand error.

Cilic was aiming to equal Goran Ivanisevic’s records for most Australian Open (3) and Grand Slam (14) quarter-final appearances by a Croatian man.

During a preseason training session, Rafael Nadal’s physiotherapist, Rafael Maymo, whipped out his iPhone while Rafa executed a serve as coach Carlos Moya looked on. It wasn’t that Maymo was distracted or tending to a text message; instead, he was recording the 17-time Grand Slam champion’s serve. Immediately after, the player and his coaches huddled on the sidelines to watch the video. The purpose: To analyze, frame by frame, the mechanics of his swing. Video is just one tool the team is utilizing in the hopes of producing a more potent serve and improve his overall game.

“We record video, then review each frame with Rafa to get his thoughts on our progress,” Moya said ahead of his charge’s fourth-round match against Tomas Berdych at the Australian Open on Sunday. “The tweaks we’ve made so far might appear small, but we consider them as fundamental improvements. As a team, we’re constantly modifying the execution of his serve to get it to where we want it to be.”

Francisco Roig, also coach to the World No. 2, watched the videos shot during those practice workouts at the Rafa Nadal Academy by Movistar in Mallorca, Spain, via WhatsApp. Despite being over 100 miles away in Barcelona at the time, Roig was still able to provide input on how to revamp the swing to produce more velocity and put opponents on the back foot by studying those videos. 

On top of video analysis, statistical analysis has also been an integral part of Team Rafa’s quest to constantly improve. And no one is better at making sense of stats than coach Moya. After his retirement in 2010, the former World No. 1 made his coaching debut during the 2016 season, helping Milos Raonic climb to No. 3 in the ATP Rankings and guiding him to the Wimbledon final. When Moya and Raonic parted ways 11 months later, Moya agreed to join Nadal’s team, bringing with him a wealth of knowledge and ideas. The addition of Moya breathed new life into his countryman’s career. 

One of Moya’s goals from the outset was to avoid any dips in form as a season wore on by molding Nadal into a more aggressive player. He proposed a less grueling schedule with fewer tournaments and a nutritional regimen that would result in lower weight without burning muscle. To achieve the next level of transformation, though, Moya surrounded himself with data and devoured all the stats he could find following Nadal’s matches. 

“I’ve always liked using technology, but in my time as a player there was not much access to data,” said Moya. “In this area, tennis was a bit behind compared to other sports, but now it has caught up. Stats are by no means the most important thing to rely on, because there are a multitude of factors that make a player who he is and what he achieves, but it definitely helps to have some knowledge to go by in terms of data when looking at our strengths and weaknesses, and of those of our rivals.”

Among one of Moya’s challenges was to get Nadal to accept technology as one method of improving, and to understand the benefit of using stats during training. By nature, Nadal has always been a player who preferred to let his instincts command his approach on the court. Slowly, however, the Spaniard is grasping the concept of how science and numbers are another way to boost his level of play and how to react in certain situations. 

“If I tell him he can sharpen one aspect of his game by doing something differently and I have data to back it up, he’s more likely to support the change,” Moya said. “If I see something that needs work, obviously my job is to point it out to Rafa — we’re always looking to hone his game.

“The added bonus of using all this information we have nowadays is that we have this intel on our opponents. Speed of serve, percentages, directions; everyone develops patterns. Maybe not those at the highest level, but in tense moments, most fall back on what they know best. If you do your homework, that’s one way of having an advantage during pressure points and not falling into a trap and just going with your gut.”

Moya is fully aware that this abundance of knowledge works both ways.

“I know there are a lot of players out there who look at Rafa’s numbers as well,” Moya said. “It’s a game of chess, even before the match starts, and you have to try and surprise your foe without going overboard. It can get crazy; you have to stay up to date and use all the information at your disposal but you also better know how to manage it. You’re seeing more and more players rely on data for an edge.”

On Saturday, Nadal and Moya practised on Court 8 of Melbourne Park to prepare for the No. 2 seed and 2009 Australian Open champion’s upcoming match against Berdych. Meanwhile, three Tennis Lab sports scientists stood in one corner of the court and gathered information from the session. Tennis Lab, in conjunction with Tennis Australia and the University of Victoria, processed data collected by cameras and sensors connected to Hawk-Eye, including the speed and trajectory of balls. After the hour-long workout and while Nadal hit the showers, Moya approached the Tennis Lab scientists to assess Nadal’s performance.

“In this era of advancement, where science and technology go hand in hand, the more information you obtain, the more power to you,” one Tennis Lab scientist said. “Mechanical changes are being made to shots. Players want to know how to avoid injury while still getting the most out of themselves.

“Among many factors, one for players over 30 years old to optimize their games is through this sort of science.”

It is something Moya seems to completely understand.

The second week of play is set to begin at the Australian Open, with 16 players remaining in the year’s first Grand Slam. There is plenty of action left, though, and there could be plenty of repercussions in the ATP Rankings.

ATPTour.com looks at the most glaring changes that could happen in the ATP Rankings based on what occurs in Melbourne.

Zverev Guaranteed To Reach No. 3, No. 2 A Possibility
No matter what happens the rest of the tournament, Alexander Zverev is guaranteed to at least match his career-high of No. 3 in the ATP Rankings. Since the German reached the third round last year, he only had 90 points to defend, whereas World No. 3 Roger Federer, as defending champion, is defending 2,000 points.

Zverev has already earned 180 points (90 more than in 2018) by moving through to the fourth round. And since he only trailed Federer by 35 points in the 14 January ATP Rankings, and the Swiss cannot gain points — even if he wins the title — Zverev will move to at least No. 3.

If Zverev reaches the final, he can potentially ascend to a career-best No. 2, which would make him the first player outside of the ‘Big Four’ to occupy one of the Top 2 spots since Lleyton Hewitt on 18 July 2005. By advancing to the championship match, Zverev would force Rafael Nadal to make the semi-finals or better. Nadal can guarantee that he will remain No. 2 if he reaches the title match in Australia for the fifth time.

Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection

Watch Zverev’s Road To The 2018 Nitto ATP Finals Title:

Federer Could Fall Out Of Top 5, As Low As No. 8
Since Federer is defending 2,000 points, the pressure is on for the six-time champion to make another deep run in Melbourne. If Federer fails to reach the semi-finals, he will fall outside the Top 5 for the first time since 20 March 2017.

A quarter-final showing would give Federer 4,780 points. As mentioned, World No. 4 Zverev is guaranteed to pass Federer, already guaranteeing himself at least 6,475 points. World No. 5 Juan Martin del Potro, who did not compete at the Australian Open, is locked in at 5,060 points, and World No. 6 Kevin Anderson, who lost in the second round, will have 4,845 points when the new ATP Rankings are released on 28 January.

The lowest Federer can fall after the tournament at this point is No. 8. If 2018 finalist Marin Cilic wins the title, beating Kei Nishikori in the final, and Federer loses in or before the quarter-finals, both Cilic and Nishikori will pass the 37-year-old Swiss.

Federer’s Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection

Cilic Could Drop From The Top 10
There could be a lot of movement in the ATP Rankings depending on the winner between Cilic and Doha champion Roberto Bautista Agut in the fourth. If Cilic loses, he will be in danger of falling outside the Top 10.

If Cilic advances no further, he will have 3,140 points on 28 January, which would at maximum place him at World No. 10, his lowest standing since 31 October 2016. If the Croat does go down in the fourth round, Borna Coric would be able to crack the Top 10 for the first time with a trip to at least the semi-finals. In the same scenario, if #NextGenATP Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas makes the final, he would also pass Cilic.

The following players would also surpass Cilic’s 3,140 points — should he lose to Bautista Agut — if they were to win their maiden Grand Slam trophy: Milos Raonic, Daniil Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut and Lucas Pouille.

Cilic’s Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection

Tsitsipas Could Crack The Top 10
Reigning Next Gen ATP Finals champion Tsitsipas is into the second week of a Grand Slam for the second time, after also advancing this far at Wimbledon last year. If he should go on a dream run and claim the title in Melbourne, Tsitsipas would soar into the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings. A victory would send him to at least No. 8, while a Nishikori fourth-round loss would allow him to climb to No. 7.

How would the Greek make such an ascent? Based on Fabio Fognini (2,225 points) and Kyle Edmund’s (1,440) early losses, Tsitsipas is currently projected to reach a career-best No. 13 in the ATP Rankings. A title would give Tsitsipas — who was only defending 10 points from a 2018 first-round loss — 4,085 points on 28 January. That would put him past eliminated players Dominic Thiem (3,960), John Isner (3,155), Karen Khachanov (2,880), Fognini and Edmund, all of whom are currently ranked ahead of him.

Tsitsipas could potentially face Cilic in the quarter-finals (3,320), so he would pass the Croat as well. While Tsitsipas could potentially face Coric in the final, a championship-match appearance would give Coric 3,625 points, which would be less than Tsitsipas’ 4,085.

Keep in mind that during such a run, Tsitsipas would potentially have to face third seed Federer, sixth seed Cilic, second seed Nadal and World No. 1 Djokovic.

Tsitsipas’ Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection