The paradox of tennis is that our minds quickly dismiss the short points, but they are by far the most influential to the final outcome.

Juan Martin Del Potro defeated Roger Federer 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-6(2) to win the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Sunday by forging his winning advantage in the abundant short rallies in the match. He won the short, lost the long, and emerged the victor, saving three match points along the way.

Fans all over the world that tuned in to watch this instant classic will no doubt enjoy discussing the extended, bruising baseline exchanges from these two heavy hitters. But the reality of this battle, lasting two hours and 42 minutes, was that only seven per cent (16 points) of rallies reached double digits – and Del Potro actually lost that battle.

Rally Length – Points Won

0-4 Shots (65% total points)
Del Potro = 80 won
Federer = 67 won

5-9 Shots (28% total points)
Del Potro = 34 won
Federer = 28 won

10+ Shots (7% total points)
Del Potro = 6 won
Federer = 10 won

Just 10 per cent of Del Potro’s total points through six matches reached double digits in rally length. Our eyes certainly don’t pick up that 90 per cent of all his points had either Del Potro or his opponent hitting a maximum of just five consecutive shots in the court.

Del Potro – Six Match Total
0-4 Shots = 539 points (59%)
5-9 Shots = 282 points (31%)
10+ Shots = 89 points (10%)

In the final against Federer, Del Potro crafted a 13-point advantage in the 0-4 rally length, and a six-point advantage in the mid-length rallies of 5-9 shots. The Argentinian actually lost the long rallies six to 10, but with so few of them played, it didn’t hurt to lose that category.

Overall for the tournament, Del Potro’s winning margin (points won minus points lost) was the most abundant in the ‘first strike’ rally length of 0-4 shots.

Del Potro – Six Match Total
0-4 Shots = 292 won / 247 lost. Margin = +45 points
5-9 Shots = 152 won / 130 lost. Margin = +22 points
10+ Shots = 51 won / 38 lost. Margin = +13 points

The Final Stanza: Federer Serving Third Set 5-4, 40/15
The match looked to be all but over with Federer serving at 5-4, 40/15 in the final set. It seemed imminent that there would be just one more point to be played, but instead, there would be another 26, and it would be Del Potro that would win 65 per cent (17/26) of them.

From 5-4, 40/15 in the third set, Federer only made 31 per cent (5/16) of his first serves and would hit two double faults in the tie-break. He also went for two backhand drop shots serving at 5-4. which uncharacteristically felt like a reach for the finish line.

From 5-4, 40/15, Federer’s forehand also went awry. He committed six forehand errors, including one return, while contributing just one forehand return winner. While Federer struggled mightily to find the court with the match on the line, Del Potro was finding another level. The Argentinian hit three forehand winners and three backhand winners (including one return), while committing just six total groundstroke and return errors to Federer’s nine.

Winning doesn’t happen evenly all over the court as much we think. Win the battle of the abundant short points, and the much smaller pool of longer points can quite often be a loss and not be detrimental to the final outcome.

A LOOK BACK
Challenger Banque Nationale de Drummondville (Drummondville, Canada): Denis Kudla is back in the winners’ circle after nearly three years, claiming the trophy at the ATP Challenger Tour event in Drummondville on Sunday. Kudla marched to the title with a 6-0, 7-5 victory over France’s Benjamin Bonzi, prevailing after just 64 minutes. The American converted five of six break opportunities to take his sixth Challenger crown and first since 2015.

It has been a strong start to 2018 for Kudla, who kicked off his campaign with a second round run as a qualifier at the Australian Open. He would also reach the semi-finals at the $125,000 event in Dallas. With his title in Drummondville, he vaults 24 spots in the ATP Rankings to a Top 150 return at No. 144.

Moreover, Kudla’s victory gives the United States its fourth title on the ATP Challenger Tour this year. He joins Noah Rubin (Noumea), Taylor Fritz (Newport Beach) and Dennis Novikov (Morelos).

First #ATPChallenger title in three years. @deniskudla celebrated a return to the winners’ circle on Sunday in Drummondville.

?️ @JournalExpress pic.twitter.com/AnB5lmFafI

— ATP Challenger Tour (@ATPChallenger) March 19, 2018

Irving Tennis Classic (Irving, Texas, U.S.A.): One year after finishing runner-up in Irving, Mikhail Kukushkin went one step further at the prestigious $150,000 event. The Kazakh defeated Matteo Berrettini 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 in Sunday’s final, capping a dominant week that saw the World No. 83 defeat Americans Jared Donaldson, Bjorn Fratangelo and Steve Johnson en route to the title match.

The title is Kukushkin’s 14th on the ATP Challenger Tour, but his first in North America. The 30-year-old was defeated by Aljaz Bedene in last year’s Irving final.

“I’m really excited,” said Kukushkin. “This is my second year in a row in the final and this time I won. I definitely like this place. I love being here in Dallas at the Four Seasons. I love playing here, with the amazing facilities and I’m very happy with the way I played and the fact that I won.”

Meanwhile, former Top 10 doubles players Philipp Petzschner and Alexander Peya teamed up to win their seventh title together. The German-Austrian duo stunned reigning Nitto ATP Finals champs Henri Kontinen and John Peers in straight sets in the first round.

“The whole week has been a pleasure for me,” said Petzschner. “This is my second home in Dallas. I love this tournament. Thanks to everyone who helped out and hopefully I can come back for a couple more years.”

Pingshan Open (Shenzhen, China): Seventh seed Ilya Ivashka notched his second ATP Challenger Tour title, prevailing on the hard courts of Shenzhen on Sunday. The Belarusian ousted home hope Zhang Ze 6-4, 6-2, capping a dominant week of tennis that saw him breeze to the title without dropping a set.

Ivashka, who crashed onto the ATP World Tour scene with a semi-final run at the Open 13 in Marseille last month, is up to No. 122 in the ATP Rankings – the highest-ranked player from Belarus. The rise of the European nation was one of the biggest storylines on the ATP Challenger Tour in 2017, with three players combining to post a 6-0 record in finals.

“I am very happy and excited to win the title here in Shenzhen,” said Ivashka. “I love this tournament and I want to thank all the people who helped me during the week.”

It’s a second #ATPChallenger ? for Ilya Ivashka, prevailing in Shenzhen 64 62 over Zhang Ze.

? career-high No. 122 pic.twitter.com/9Vkd2RAdLa

— ATP Challenger Tour (@ATPChallenger) March 18, 2018

A LOOK AHEAD
A pair of tournaments are welcomed to the ATP Challenger Tour, with Lille, France and Qujing, China celebrating inaugural editions. Nicolas Mahut is the top seed in Lille, while Malek Jaziri leads the field in Qujing. Ivashka, seeded third, looks to go back-to-back on Chinese soil.

(1) Juan Martin del Potro is a Top 2 Contender
Over the past 14 months, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have created a monopoly atop the ATP Rankings. But, with his maiden ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crown on Sunday, the Tower of Tandil has thrust himself into the Top 2 conversation. With a shiny new No. 6 next to his name, Del Potro is in prime position to make a charge during the upcoming clay-court season.

At the age of 29 and with his injuries behind him, the Argentine looks to be back to the form that carried him to a career-high of No. 4 in 2010. His mammoth forehand was large and in charge throughout the tournament and he showed great maturity and poise with his back against the wall. Trailing by a set against Leonardo Mayer in the fourth round and Philipp Kohlschreiber in the quarter-finals, Del Potro was at his resilient best. And when he stared down the barrel of three championship points against   Federer in Sunday’s final, he refused to go down without a fight.

His reward? The missing prize in his trophy case: a first Masters 1000 crown. 

“It’s so big,” Del Potro said of winning his first Masters 1000 title. “I cannot believe I won this tournament, beating Roger in a great final and level of tennis. We played great tennis today. I’m No. 6 in the world, I think? Which is so good to me. And I’m excited to keep working… I just want to keep winning titles like this if I can.”  

(2) Roger Federer Continues To Put The ATP World Tour On Notice
Sure, Roger Federer fell just short of claiming his 28th ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event and a record sixth BNP Paribas Open trophy. In fact, the Swiss had three match points — on his serve, no less — in the third set to triumph once again in the Coachella Valley. But while he leaves Indian Wells as runner-up, how close he was illustrates a statement he has made throughout 2018 — the 36-year-old does not plan on going anywhere. 

The World No. 1 guaranteed that he would maintain his spot atop the ATP Rankings on Monday by advancing to the semi-finals. And then, when it appeared he was on his way out of the tournament, he recovered from a set and 2-4 down in the semi-finals against rising star Borna Coric, and then a break on two separate occasions in the third set, to make an eighth Indian Wells final. It’s not like the Swiss was ousted early. It’s quite the opposite, actually. Federer set a new personal record for best start to a year by triumphing in his first 17 matches before losing to Del Potro on Sunday. 

“It was maybe a point here or there, maybe a shot, maybe a forehand, maybe a chip. So that’s how it goes. It’s unfortunate,” Federer said. 

All it would have taken was one shot to go differently for this to be a very different conversation, so don’t worry about Federer. That is for the rest of the ATP World Tour to do.

(3) Innovation Is Driving Indian Wells To New Heights
Year after year, the BNP Paribas Open continues to set the benchmark for tennis excellence on the ATP World Tour. The prestigious tournament in Indian Wells is consistently at the forefront of sporting innovation and is highly regarded by players and fans as one of the best events on the calendar.

During the week, the tournament in the California desert was honoured once again, receiving its trophy as the top Masters 1000 event in the 2017 ATP World Tour Awards presented by Moët & Chandon. It marked the fourth consecutive year in which it has celebrated the achievement. 

Prior to the 2017 tournament, the Indian Wells Tennis Garden underwent extensive renovations designed to enhance the overall fan experience, including substantial upgrades to Stadium 1 – ranging from a massive expansion of the Stadium Plaza to renovating all the suites and hospitality spaces to adding 21 new restaurants and concessions. Leading up to this year’s edition, the tournament underwent a full-scale beautification project, including the addition of 62 palm trees, as part of a sweeping ‘green’ initiative.

(4) The Youth Revolution Is Alive At The Masters 1000 Level
Last year, Hyeon Chung and Borna Coric made their mark on the ATP World Tour with appearances at the Next Gen ATP Finals. Chung and Coric starred in Milan and they carried the momentum into 2018, putting their talents on full display at this week’s BNP Paribas Open. 

Chung reached his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 quarter-final, falling to Federer, and Coric advanced to his first Masters 1000 semi-final, also falling to the World No. 1. Both players earned statement wins en route, with the Korean toppling Tomas Berdych in straight sets and the Croatian clipping seventh seed Kevin Anderson in a deciding tie-break.

Chung and Coric weren’t the only members of the ATP’s youth revolution to make strides at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. For the second straight year, Taylor Fritz was the last #NextGenATP standing, earning a pair of comeback wins to reach the Round of 16. And the ascents of Alex de Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime continued, with both teens securing their first Masters 1000 match wins.

“Last year, I never would have thought I’d be here talking to you guys in the second round of a Masters 1000,” said Auger-Aliassime. “I was still playing juniors. This transition went pretty fast for me, so it’s quite unbelievable to be here so early. But as a kid, those are the moments you dream of and those are the stages you want to play on.” 

(5) Jack Sock Is A Doubles Dynamo
Well, we already knew that. But the 2018 BNP Paribas Open only reaffirmed the belief that the American is one of the best two-way players on the ATP World Tour. The World No. 10 in singles added a 10th tour-level doubles crown, teaming up with countryman John Isner to prevail in the desert.

It was Sock’s third ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title and second in Indian Wells, having also triumphed with Vasek Pospisil in 2015. A magician at the net with rapid reflexes, few players’ court instincts can match those of the Nebraska native. 

Moreover, Sock and Isner did not drop a set through four matches, becoming just the third team to do so in the past 30 years in Indian Wells. 

“I have been fortunate enough to be in my third final here,” Sock said. “I’ve been able to win two of them, which has been super special. Like John said, obviously it’s an incredible 10 days here. Probably almost every player’s favourite event of the year. Family and friends and loved ones are out here and you’re renting a house. And it’s relaxing, and you’re still getting to play super high-level tennis. And then the crowds, on top of it, are just amazing.”

Players competing at this week’s ATP Challenger Tour event in Shenzhen stepped away from the court for a pair of off-site activities, sampling the local Chinese culture.

Sweden’s Andreas Siljestrom and Austria’s Tristan-Samuel Weissborn went hiking in nearby Dashanbei Park, where they put their artistic skills to the test. The duo took a break from their trek to paint in front of the famous Taihe Tower. The tower was built in the Ming dynasty, with the name “Taihe” referring to a high level of harmony, such as the harmony within oneself.

Later in the week, Marcel Granollers interacted with students at the local Gemdale International School. The Spaniard led a Q&A session, discussing his journey in professional tennis and providing advice for those interested in following in his footsteps. The game is an integral part of the school, with many students aspiring to turn pro.

The Pingshan Open has a long tradition of encouraging players to experience the culture in the local community. Last year, players visited a Tsing Dynasty villa named Wanshi Habitat and tested their talents in a calligraphy classroom, learning to write Chinese characters.

On the court, Ilya Ivashka celebrated his second Challenger crown, defeating home hope Ze Zhang. The Belarusian prevailed 6-4, 6-2 in Sunday’s final, marking his ascent to a career-high No. 122 in the ATP Rankings. Ivashka recently scored the biggest result on the ATP World Tour in his young career, as the 24-year-old reached the semi-finals at the Open 13 in Marseille.

Titles have never defined who Roger Federer is, although, if they did, they’d have a lot to say for him. The Swiss right-hander was three times a swing away from winning his 28^th ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crown and his 98^th tour-level title on Sunday against Juan Martin del Potro during the BNP Paribas Open final in Indian Wells. But Del Potro erased all three championship points and captured his maiden Masters 1000 title 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-6(2).

Federer, however, long ago learned to achieve contentment in life, despite some on-court disappointments here and there. The 36-year-old Swiss said he achieved such peace years ago, shortly after he began to make his mark on the ATP World Tour and at Grand Slam tournaments.

“I have been content for a long, long time on the Tour. I guess ever since I became world No. 1 back in 2004 and won Wimbledon in 2003, my life was complete as a tennis player. Those were my dreams as a little kid,” he said.

Federer said that’s why he still enjoys most things about the tour life. “That’s why retirement can wait, and I’m just really enjoying the ride. I’m really having a good time on the Tour,” Federer said.

It’s easy to forget that Federer has had tough moments during his career, times that have taught him how to stay positive regardless of the outcome on the court. After falling to Del Potro in the season’s first Masters 1000 final, Federer spoke at length about his attitude.

“I think staying positive through the tough moments is really key. Because you’re always going to go through ups and downs in your career, or as a person for that matter. Not every day is sun shining. It’s sometimes a bit of a struggle and important that you take the right decisions, you surround yourself with the right people, you’re happy with what you have,” Federer said.

“Of course you can always try to want more and have more and everything, but you might never be happy when you search for things like this.”

Federer’s outlook has helped him move on from losses. His 17-match win streak to start the 2018 season – the longest of his career to begin a year – was snapped against Del Potro. But the World No. 1 knows he won’t have a lot of time to dwell on the match. The season’s second Masters 1000 tournament, the Miami Open presented by Itau, starts on Wednesday. Federer is the defending champion there, too.

“I feel frustrated, you know, that I let an opportunity like this go by. Serving 40/15, any game I probably win – I don’t know what the stat is – 90-something per cent,” Federer said of his lead at 5-4 in the third set.

“So it should sting, like you said, for a bit. The question is how long? It won’t be long, but it’s disappointing talking about a great match like this, losing, even though I was right there.

“Obviously there is not too much time to dwell over it. Like I said, I’m happy for Juan Martin. It’s a tough one. And I still had a good week here. I still see the positives at the end of the day.

“It was a great match, honestly. Good fun. Good intensity. We enjoy that. And also it was tough and fair on the court. It was Juan Martin and myself. At the end you saw we are appreciative of the finals that we played against each other, which I think is really important for both of us.”