Returning Serve: The Long & Short Of It

Mar222018

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers highlights return depth on Deuce and Ad courts

Directing first serves out wide in the Ad court will bring significantly more shorter returns than hitting them wide in the Deuce court.

The primary reason is that right-handed returners must hit a backhand return in the Ad court, and we now know that depth is a real issue with this specific shot from out wide. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of more than 17,000 wide returns against first serves in both the Deuce and Ad courts hit by current players in the Top 20 of the ATP Rankings uncovers this hidden strategic anomaly.

The data set of 17,705 wide first serve returns comes from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2018. Return depth is divided up into three categories.

1. Short = In the service box.
2. Middle = Behind the service line (but closer to the service line than baseline).
3. Deep = Closer to the baseline than the service line.

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Return depth to the middle area was the most constant between the Deuce and Ad courts, only varying 1.9 percentage points (49.7% to 47.8%).

The larger percentage swings were primarily from short returns in the service box and deep returns back near the baseline. There was a significant 5.4 percentage difference in short returns, and a 3.6 percentage point swing in deep returns hit between the Deuce and Ad courts.

Wide Return Location Deuce Ct & Ad Ct: Return Depth = Short / Middle / Long

Wide Return Location	Short	Middle	Deep
Ad Court	29.3%	47.8%	22.8%
Deuce Court	23.9%	49.7%	26.4%

Quite clearly, making first serves out wide in the Ad court (to a right hander’s backhand return) will bring a lot more short, attackable balls back in the service box for the server to feast on.

Deuce Court Wide Returns
Former World No. 1s Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are at either ends of the spectrum regarding return depth from the Deuce court. Out of the current Top 20, Nadal hit the most amount of short returns in the service box (his backhand return) at 31.8 per cent, while Djokovic hits the least, at only 17.9 per cent.

Deuce Court: Return Depth from Wide Serves

Ranking	Player	Short	Middle	Deep	Total
7	Dominic Thiem	21.3%	45.1%	33.7%	315
13	Tomas Berdych	22.5%	47.2%	30.4%	632
4	Grigor Dimitrov	20.2%	50.3%	29.5%	461
6	Juan Martin Del Potro	24.4%	46.2%	29.4%	320
12	Novak Djokovic	17.9%	53.3%	28.8%	1404
16	Diego Schwartzman	27.4%	43.9%	28.7%	157
15	Roberto Bautista Agut	21.2%	50.7%	28.1%	288
1	Roger Federer	19.6%	52.8%	27.6%	815
17	John Isner	24.3%	48.1%	27.6%	536
19	Pablo Carreno Busta	18.6%	54.0%	27.4%	113
8	Kevin Anderson	20.9%	52.2%	26.9%	364
20	Nick Kyrgios	18.7%	54.5%	26.8%	198
11	Jack Sock	23.9%	49.7%	26.4%	318
10	Lucas Pouille	26.5%	47.7%	25.8%	132
9	David Goffin	21.3%	53.9%	24.8%	408
3	Marin Cilic	23.5%	52.8%	23.7%	443
18	Fabio Fognini	23.7%	53.2%	23.1%	363
5	Alexander Zverev	30.5%	47.3%	22.3%	256
2	Rafael Nadal	31.8%	46.2%	22.1%	1395
14	Sam Querrey	30.0%	49.3%	20.7%	213
–	AVERAGE	23.8%	50.3%	25.9%	7723

Dominic Thiem hit the highest amount of deep returns, at 33.7 per cent, while Sam Querrey struggled the most to get Deuce court forehand returns deep, averaging only 20.7 per cent.

Ad Court Wide Returns
Djokovic was also the peak performer in keeping his first serve returns out of the service box in the Ad court, only hitting 21.6 per cent of his returns there. The Serb also hit the most amount in the deep section (28.9%), followed by Kevin Anderson (26.9%), Grigor Dimitrov (26.4%) and Dominic Thiem (26.1%).

Ad Court: Return Depth from Wide Serves

Ranking	Player	Short	Middle	Deep	Total
12	Novak Djokovic	21.6%	49.5%	28.9%	1163
8	Kevin Anderson	26.9%	46.2%	26.9%	320
4	Grigor Dimitrov	25.6%	48.0%	26.4%	473
7	Dominic Thiem	27.9%	46.0%	26.1%	398
9	David Goffin	23.2%	51.1%	25.7%	323
18	Fabio Fognini	26.9%	47.4%	25.6%	386
13	Tomas Berdych	26.4%	48.6%	25.0%	591
17	John Isner	26.0%	49.2%	24.8%	508
1	Roger Federer	26.4%	50.2%	23.4%	1163
3	Marin Cilic	31.1%	46.0%	22.9%	402
14	Sam Querrey	37.6%	39.9%	22.5%	258
6	Juan Martin Del Potro	30.2%	47.9%	21.9%	388
16	Diego Schwartzman	28.7%	50.0%	21.3%	136
2	Rafael Nadal	34.7%	44.4%	20.9%	759
11	Jack Sock	33.5%	46.1%	20.4%	358
10	Lucas Pouille	28.7%	51.2%	20.0%	160
5	Alexander Zverev	30.8%	49.8%	19.4%	227
15	Roberto Bautista Agut	32.0%	48.8%	19.2%	291
19	Pablo Carreno Busta	33.1%	49.2%	17.8%	118
20	Nick Kyrgios	34.9%	47.4%	17.8%	152
–	AVERAGE	29.3%	47.8%	22.8%	8574

What’s the action plan from this insightful new data? Make sure you have got a solid wide first serve in the Ad court to take advantage of short backhand returns, and if you are on the receiving side of the equation, add a little more height to your Ad court return to give it the extra wings it needs to make it deep back near the baseline.

Williams knocked out of Miami Open

Posted: Mar 22, 2018

Serena Williams was knocked out of the Miami Open in the first round by Naomi Osaka as the 23-time Grand Slam winner continues her return after pregnancy.

Williams, unseeded after taking 13 months off to have her first child, was beaten 6-3 6-2 by the Japanese, 20.

The American lost serve twice in each set and was unable to break back.

Her defeat comes after the Miami Open director said seeding rules for players coming back after maternity leave were a “punishment” and “should be changed”.

Osaka is herself also unseeded but last week claimed her maiden title at Indian Wells to move up to 22 in the world.

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Her powerful serve and relentless returning proved too much for Williams, who was broken at 3-3 and 5-3 in the first set and again at 3-1 in the second.

Osaka clinched victory when Williams sprayed a wide open forehand long, and will now face world number four Elina Svitolina of Ukraine in the second round.

“I was extremely nervous coming on to the court. I don’t know if anybody knows this but Serena is my favourite player,” Osaka said.

“So just playing against her is kind of like a dream for me. I’m very grateful I was able to play her and it is even better that I was able to win.”

Williams, 36, made her return to the WTA Tour at Indian Wells earlier this month, losing to sister Venus in the third round.

She has no official ranking, which means she cannot be seeded for WTA events.

However, she can gain entry to eight tournaments in 12 months – including two Grand Slams – with her protected world number one ranking.

Azarenka & Muguruza go through

Two-time grand slam winner Victoria Azarenka marked her fourth event since giving birth with a 6-3 6-0 win over American Cici Bellis.

The Belarusian pulled out of the US Open and the Fed Cup final earlier last year because of a custody dispute over her young son.

Azarenka, who made her first appearance of the year at Indian Wells last week, took just over an hour to brush past the 18-year-old.

Meanwhile, Bethanie Mattek-Sands lost in her first WTA Tour match since dislocating her right kneecap and rupturing a tendon at Wimbledon last year.

The 32-year-old doubles specialist had been awarded a wild card but slipped to a 6-2 7-5 defeat at the hands of France’s Alize Cornet.

And third seed Garbine Muguruza of Spain progressed after her opponent, 16-year-old American Amanda Anisimova, withdrew due to injury.

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Shapovalov Leads #NextGenATP Charge In Miami Thursday

Posted: Mar 22, 2018

Shapovalov Leads #NextGenATP Charge In Miami Thursday

Mar222018

Seven promising #NextGenATP players bid for second-round berths on Thursday

Denis Shapovalov vs. Viktor Troicki
Seven months after announcing his presence with back-to-back wins over Juan Martin Del Potro and Rafael Nadal en route to the Coupe Rogers semi-finals, Denis Shapovalov will make his Miami Open presented by Itau debut on Thursday. The #NextGenATP Canadian reached his second ATP World Tour semi-final at the Delray Beach Open (l. to eventual champion Tiafoe) in February. Three of his losses this season have come against Top 15 opponents. The 18-year-old, at No. 46 in the ATP Rankings, fell in the second round in Indian Wells (l. to Cuevas) leading in. Troicki, No. 68 in the ATP Rankings, leads the duo’s FedEx ATP Head2Head series 1-0 after a three-set triumph in Shanghai last. The Serbian won his sixth straight victory in a five-set match at the Australian Open to start his year (d. Bolt, l. to Kyrgios in 2R). Bosnian 24th seed Damir Dzumhur awaits the winner in round two.

View FedEx ATP Head2Head for the following matches from the 2018 Miami Open presented by Itaú & vote for who you think will win!
Shapovalov vs Troicki | Medvedev vs Tsitsipas | de Minaur vs Nishioka

Frances Tiafoe vs. Nicolas Kicker
Coming off a maiden ATP World Tour title last month, #NextGenATP American Frances Tiafoe will appear in his second Miami main draw. The World No. 63 takes on 25-year-old Argentine Nicolas Kicker for the first time in his opening match. The 20-year-old Tiafoe downed Shapovalov, Next Gen ATP Finals champion Hyeon Chung and his childhood idol Juan Martin Del Potro en route to the Delray Beach Open title before a first-round exit against compatriot Ernest Escobedo in Indian Wells. Kicker defeated No. 26 seed Dzumhur on his way to the third round in Indian Wells before he narrowly went down to No. 7 seed Kevin Anderson. Kicker stands at No. 87 in the ATP Rankings. The winner will take on No. 21 seed Kyle Edmund.

Alex De Minaur vs. Yoshihito Nishioka
The 18-year-old Aussie, Alex De Minaur, made a blistering start to 2018 on home turf with a semi-final run in Brisbane (l. to Harrison) before his first ATP World Tour final in Sydney (l. to Medvedev). For the second time in as many ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events, De Minaur won through qualifying to take his place in the main draw. In his Indian Wells leading in, he had his first Masters 1000 win (d. Struff) before falling to eventual champion Del Potro. His 22-year-old opponent Yoshihito Nishioka tore his ACL at the 2017 Miami Open. The Japanese player’s best result this year is a five-set first-round upset of No. 27 seed Phlipp Kohlschreiber at the Australian Open. No. 10 seed Tomas Berdych will take on the winner in the second round.

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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev
#NextGenATP 19-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas took a set off No. 5 seed Dominic Thiem in their second-round clash in Indian Wells debut leading in. The No. 70 in the ATP Rankings will square off against 2017 Next Gen ATP Finals qualifier Daniil Medvedev for the first time in the pair’s Miami debut on Thursday. The 19-year-old Greek reached the quarter-finals in Doha to open his season (l. to Thiem). Earlier this month, he beat No. 6 seed Philipp Kohlschreiber en route to the quarter-finals in Dubai. Medvedev, the World No. 52, started the season in a flurry when he claimed seven straight matches to win his first ATP World Tour title in Sydney (d. De Minaur) as a 21-year-old qualifier. The winner will face No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev.

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Calvin Hemery
Continuing his steady climb back from injury, #NextGenATP Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis takes on fellow qualifier Calvin Hemery of France. The 21-year-old Kokkinakis reached his first ATP World Tour final in Los Cabos last season (l. to Querrey) as a 454th-ranked wild card at the time. Now with his ATP Ranking back up to No. 175 he will meet Hemery for the first time. The 23-year-old Frenchman reached an ATP Challenger Tour semi-final (l. to Vatutin) in Quimper, France in January. The reward for the winner is a date with top seed and defending champion Roger Federer.

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Denis Istomin vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
ATPWorldTour.com rated Denis Istomin’s second-round win over defending champion Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open as the biggest upset of 2017. The 31-year-old Uzbekistani, No. 85 in the ATP Rankings, has endured a tougher start to 2018 with injuries ending his Brisbane International quarter-final against Ryan Harrison and forcing his withdrawal before his scheduled match against Peter Gojowczyk in Indian Wells leading in. #NextGenATP wild card Miomir Kecmanovic will face Istomin for the first time on Thursday. The 18-year-old Serbian beat Tiafoe in the ATP Challenger Tour event in Newport in January, and counts wins over #NextGenATP American Michael Mmoh, Aussie Jordan Thompson and Spaniard Marcel Granollers in his three respective Challenger tournaments leading in. No. 16 seed Pablo Carreno Busta awaits in the second round.

Nicola Kuhn vs. Darian King
In just his second ATP World Tour main draw event, #NextGenATP Spaniard Nicola Kuhn will take on Darian King of Barbados for the first time. The 18-year-old Kuhn, the son of a German father and a Russian mother, reached the boys’ singles final at Roland Garros last year (l. to Popyrin). King won through qualifying and reached the final of the Indian Wells Challenger (l. to Klizan) prior to the BNP Paribas Open. The winner will meet No. 15 seed Fabio Fognini in round two.

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Del Potro Bids To Join Rare Company In Miami

Mar212018

Argentine could become eighth man to complete the Sunshine Double

Still reeling from his breakthrough ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells, Juan Martin del Potro is keeping his celebrations in check ahead of the Miami Open presented by Itau. The Argentine is riding an 11-match winning streak, having also claimed the trophy in Acapulco.

He arrives in Miami seeded fifth, with his lone semi-final appearance coming back in 2009 (l. to Murray). A title run would catapult the 29-year-old into an elite group – currently occupied by just seven men – to have claimed the Sunshine Double (winning Indian Wells and Miami back to back).

Speaking ahead of his 10^th Miami campaign, Del Potro’s triumph over Roger Federer in Sunday’s Indian Wells final was still sinking in. Motivation was high as he prepared to open his campaign in Key Biscayne.

“It was an epic match,” Del Potro said of the Indian Wells final. “The level of tennis was very high. The people love to see this kind of tennis. And also the passion which both players showed in the finals was great to see.

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“To me, beating Roger in another final, having a positive record against him in finals, is some good. And also to get my first title playing a Masters 1000 in Indian Wells… a place I like to play, that makes me feel special, and I’m excited to keep enjoying these days here in Miami with all my people. I’m excited to keep playing good tennis here.”

Back up to No. 6 in the ATP Rankings, Del Potro will open his campaign against Robin Haase after a first-round bye with former World No. 4 Kei Nishikori drawn to meet him in the third round. Like Nishikori, another player on the comeback trail, six-time Miami champion Novak Djokovic, stands as Del Potro’s likely fourth-round opponent.

After four wrist surgeries and back playing at his highest level in years, the Argentine is well and truly in the mix when talk of big titles arises. It is a status the typically modest Del Potro would prefer to downplay. Amid all the talk of the Sunshine Double, his priority remains staying healthy enough to compete at the highest level.

“I’m not thinking too much. I’m just enjoying the moment that I am living,” Del Potro said. “I know what I have been through to get to this time and this place and this ranking. I am still calm… It will be my fourth tournament in a row. I’m tired, and mentally and physically it’s not easy to deal with all of these emotions.

“But then I will have a break, I will see what tournament we play on clay, because my body feels that surface, and I want to stay healthy during the whole season. That’s my biggest goal.”