No. 6 Fabio Fognini is the highest seed in action Tuesday
Fourth seed Jerzy Janowicz led four qualifiers through to the main draw at the Intrum Stockholm Open on Monday, defeating seventh seed Jurgen Zopp, 6-1, 6-7(3), 6-4. The Pole failed to convert on a match point while up 6-5 in the second set, and then three more up 5-3 in the decider. But after a one-hour, 46-minute tilt, he was able to get past the Estonian.
Janowicz will compete in his first tour-level main draw since advancing to the third round of Wimbledon in July. His last ATP World Tour victory came in Stuttgart this June. The 26 year old will play Frenchman Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the first round.
The top seed competing on Centre Court Tuesday as the main draw gets underway will be No. 6 Fabio Fognini. He will take on Malek Jaziri, while No. 8 Fernando Verdasco will face Montreal semi-finalist Robin Haase. The only other seed competing will be No. 7 Yuichi Sugita, who will look to move past recent Chengdu Open winner Denis Istomin on Court 1.
Ivo Karlovic saved three match points in a two-hour, 13-minute battle to eliminate Guido Pella, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(10) in the first round of the European Open in Antwerp, Belgium.
The 38 year old saved two break points in the second set at 3-3 to avoid going down a set and a break against the Argentine, before holding off Pella’s three match points in the third-set tie-break. Each opportunity was on Karlovic’s serve, and the Croatian capitalised on his third opportunity to advance to the second round.
In other action, Sergiy Stakhovsky temporarily halted Jared Donaldson’s efforts in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan with a 7-6(4), 6-4 victory over the American. The Ukrainian saved the only break point he faced, and broke the 21 year old at 4-4 in the second set to give himself the advantage he needed to close out the match.
Donaldson sits in fifth place in the Race with 890 points, with his closest competitor, No. 6 Borna Coric, losing in the first round in Moscow Monday. The Top 7 players in the Race automatically qualify for the first Next Gen ATP Finals, with an Italian wild card event deciding the eighth player.
Four seeded singles players will begin their tournaments on Tuesday, with No. 7 Benoit Paire opening the day’s play against Joao Sousa, sixth seed Pablo Cuevas taking on #NextGenATP Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas and No. 8 Alexandr Dolgopolov confronting Henri Laaksonen. Fifth seed David Ferrer will kick off the night session on Center Court against qualifier Stefano Travaglia.
Federer tips the serve v. return battle heavily in his favour
Roger Federer broke down Rafael Nadal’s much-vaunted return game during his 6-4, 6-3 victory in the Shanghai Rolex Masters final by hitting the corners of the service boxes at will, and by staying a step ahead in the guessing game of which corner he was aiming at next. Federer’s serve was completely dialed in, leaving Nadal to continuously play catch-up on the quick indoor court.
The pair has now played 38 times, with the Spaniard holding a 23-15 advantage. The following metrics show how dominant Federer was on serve and how Nadal was unable to make an impact on return.
Nadal Return Statistics v Federer
Lowest: 2nd Serve Return Points Won = 21% (3/14)
It was the lowest percentage of second serve points won by Nadal in their 38 matches. The next lowest was 25 per cent (5/20) won at Indian Wells earlier this year, when Federer dominated 6-2, 6-3. Overall, Nadal has won 50 per cent (679/1348) of second serve points head-to-head against Federer.
Lowest: Percentage Return Points Won = 18% (8/44)
The 18 per cent return points won represents a career low for Nadal against Federer. In all of their other matches, Nadal has averaged winning 38 per cent (1347/3570) of his combined first- and second-serve return points.
Equal Lowest: Total Return Points Won = 8
This ties the lowest total for first and second serve points won with their 2011 Nitto ATP Finals clash, which Federer won 6-3, 6-0. Those two matches represent the only two times out of 38 that Nadal has been in single figures for return points won.
Equal Third Lowest: Total First-Serve Return Points Won = 5
Nadal only won six points against Federer’s first serve in their 2017 Indian Wells encounter, and won one less Sunday in Shanghai, with just five points won.
2017 Shanghai Final – First Serve Location Deuce Court
It was all about the mix for the Swiss. Federer served 12 times out wide in the deuce court, and 14 times down the middle. This even mix constantly had Nadal guessing, and, more often than not, it was the wrong way.
Federer won 10 of 12 service points out wide in the deuce court, with four being backhand return errors from Nadal. Federer won a perfect 8/8 when he made his first serve down the middle T in the Deuce court, including four aces and a service winner.
In the ad court, Federer served 14 times out wide, making 10, and winning seven. He served nine times down the middle T, making eight, and winning five. Nadal had no idea where Federer was going, or when.
The Five-Match Win Streak
Federer has now beaten Nadal five straight times for the first time, with four victories coming this year, and one back in 2015. The following 10 metrics showcase just how dominant Federer’s serve has been during the five-match win streak.
When leading 15/0 on serve, Federer has held every time (42/42).
When Federer has been pushed to deuce, he has held 93 per cent (13/14) of the time.
Federer’s career first-serve percentage is 62 per cent. He is making 63 per cent (240/379) during the streak.
Federer has hit 52 aces and just seven double faults. Nadal has served just 14 aces, while also committing seven double faults.
Federer’s career first-serve points won is 77 per cent. He is winning 79 per cent (189/240) now against Nadal.
Federer has averaged saving 67 per cent of his break points in his career, but that has sky-rocketed to 80% (20/25) during the five-match win streak. Nadal is at 63 per cent.
Nadal has averaged winning 34 per cent of his first-serve return points for his career, but is only at 21 per cent (51/240) during the five matches.
Nadal has averaged winning 55 per cent of his second-serve return points for his career, but is only at 42 per cent (59/139) during the five matches.
Nadal has only won 19 per cent (4/21) of break points returning in the ad court.
Federer has only found himself down 0/30 seven times in the five matches, winning three of those games.
Nadal did make an adjustment in the Shanghai final by moving further back to return against Federer. That tactic worked for Nadal in the 2017 US Open final against Kevin Anderson, but didn’t make a difference against Federer yesterday.
More adjustments, more tweaks, and more video analysis of Federer’s streak will be needed by the Spaniard to figure out his recent returning conundrum.
ATP World Tour veteran Dudi Sela stalled #NextGenATP Croatian Borna Coric’s hopes of qualifying for the Next Gen ATP Finals by eliminating the 20 year old from the VTB Kremlin Cup on Monday, 6-3, 6-2.
The Israeli fell behind 0-2, but then won eight of the next nine games to take a commanding set and a break lead over the No. 6 player in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan. Sela would not look back, closing out his opponent in 63 minutes. While Coric can no longer control his destiny in the Race this week, he currently leads the final automatic qualifier, No. 7 Hyeon Chung, by 146 points.
Alexander Bublik maintained his dreams of qualifying for the inaugural Next Gen ATP Finals by defeating Russian Teymuraz Gabashvili, 6-3, 6-4 in 68 minutes.
The young Kazakh, who got into the main draw as a lucky loser despite falling in the final round of qualifying to Lukas Rosol, kept his hopes alive in the Race. He entered the tournament in 12th place with 459 points, 281 points behind No, 7 Chung, who is currently in the final qualifying spot. If Bublik goes onto win his first ATP World Tour title in Moscow, he will earn 250 points, which would put him right in the mix for Milan.
The tournament’s No. 5 seed, Andrey Rublev, begins his campaign on Tuesday. The Russian became the second player to qualify for the Next Gen ATP Finals on Tuesday, joining Alexander Zverev.
Andrey Rublev joined Alexander Zverev on Monday as the only two players who have qualified for the inaugural Next Gen ATP Finals, to be held 7-11 November in Milan.
“I’m really happy and I’m really excited to play in Milan,” said Rublev. “I did hard work this year and I’ve had some great results. So I’m really excited to play Milan.”
The 19-year-old Moscow native has enjoyed a breakout season this year on the ATP World Tour. He exploded onto the scene in July, when, as a lucky loser, he won five consecutive matches to win his maiden ATP World Tour title at the Plava Laguna Croatia Open Umag.
#NextGenATP Rublev continued to excel during his first full season on the ATP World Tour. Last month, the right-hander became the youngest US Open quarter-finalist since Andy Roddick in 2001. Rublev upset Grigor Dimitrov and David Goffin before falling to eventual champion Rafael Nadal.
Read More: What’s Beyond Rublev’s Meteoric Rise?
The 6’2″ Russian reached another quarter-final earlier this month at the China Open in Beijing. He beat tour veterans Jack Sock and Tomas Berdych before losing to fellow #NextGenATP Zverev. Rublev now sits at a career-high No. 35 in the Emirates ATP Rankings.
Only two weeks remain in the Emirates ATP Race To Milan, which ends on 30 October, and will determine seven of the eight players who compete at the Next Gen ATP Finals. The eighth spot will be given to the winner of an Italian 21-and-under tournament. Rublev’s countryman Karen Khachanov is in third place in the Race with 1,045 points. Canadian Denis Shapovalov sits in fourth with 926 points.