The release of the Rolex Paris Masters draw has added further intrigue to the battle for the final two singles berths at the Nitto ATP Finals, the eight-man season finale to be held 12-19 November at The O2 arena in London.

The final ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament of the year – and last tournament of the regular season – has thrown up two potential third-round matches that could go a long way to determining who makes it to London – and who does not.

View The Rolex Paris Master Draw

In the top half of the draw, the man who currently has a hold on the last qualifying spot, Pablo Carreno Busta, could have a third-round meeting with American Sam Querrey, who at No. 11, is just 80 points behind the Spaniard in the Emirates ATP Race To London.

In the bottom half of the draw, David Goffin, who is seventh in the Race, could meet fast-finishing Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who was a distant 22^nd in the Race before winning his fourth title of the year in Antwerp last week. Tsonga, who is 19-2 indoors this year, today upset World No. 5 Alexander Zverev to reach the Vienna semi-finals.

Juan Martin del Potro has the opportunity to complete one of the most unlikely qualifications in tournament history. The Argentine was a distant 47^th in the Race before the US Open, but would overtake Carreno Busta for the final qualifying position as early as Sunday should he advance to the Swiss Indoors Basel final and win the title for a third time. Next week in Paris, del Potro plays the winner of Gael Monfils and Paolo Lorenzi in in his opener, with a third-round clash with Zverev a possibility.

South Africa’s Kevin Anderson, 135 points behind Carreno Busta, opens against #NextGenATP Russian Andrey Rublev or veteran Frenchman Fernando Verdasco. The winner of that match could face fifth seed Dominic Thiem in the third round.

Top seed Rafael Nadal returns to the tour after missing this week in Basel with knee soreness. He will play the winner of Mischa Zverev and Hyeon Chung in the second round. Second seed Roger Federer, who also has a first-round bye, will open against Feliciano Lopez or Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Nadal has a healthy lead over Federer in the battle for the year-end World No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking, but the Swiss is not without a chance of claiming year-end honours for a sixth time should he win Paris and the season finale.

The Nitto ATP Finals also features the best eight doubles teams of the year. Just one doubles spot to London remains up for grabs in Paris.

Roger Federer proved in his 15th quarter-final at the Swiss Indoors Basel, his hometown tournament, that he still has plenty of magic left.

The top seed rode the momentum of a tremendous backhand half-volley winner from the baseline down break point in the third set to oust Frenchman Adrian Mannarino, 4-6, 6-1, 6-3, in one hour, 43 minutes. Federer will have the opportunity to advance to his 13th final in Basel, and next plays third seed and Nitto ATP Finals hopeful David Goffin. 

“Today was a battle. I had to somehow dig and fight and sometimes these wins are more rewarding than just leading from the get-go and dominating throughout and bringing it home,” said Federer. “These are better matches to win sometimes, actually. I just had a tough time really getting into it and he was rock solid, so he deserved that first set, but the reaction from me was really important.”

Federer, who is into his eighth ATP World Tour semi-final of the season, seeks to earn his eighth title in Basel.

And judging by his 4-0 FedEx ATP Head2Head series lead against Mannarino heading into Friday’s match, which included all 10 sets going in the Swiss’ favor, it was hard to imagine the Frenchman spoiling Federer’s hometown party. But after Federer did not face a break point in his first two wins, both by 6-1, 6-3 scorelines, the tricky left-hander tested the 36-year-old.

Mannarino broke to love at 4-4 in the opening set before winning his first-ever set against Federer without a problem. The seven-time Basel champion, intense as ever at an event for which he was once a ballboy, quickly won five games in a row to turn the momentum around.

Yet after failing to break Mannarino with two opportunities in the first game of the deciding set, it was Federer who was in trouble. He faced two break points at 2-3, and the Frenchman did well with his second opportunity, lacing a forehand return on the baseline, a shot that most players would scramble to simply put back into play.

But somehow, Federer flicked his one-handed backhand for a winner down the line and never looked back from there, winning the final four games of the match to advance to the semi-finals.

GENIUS ?#swissindoors @rogerfederer pic.twitter.com/0JuzslhJCU

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) October 27, 2017

Federer explained his thought process on that crucial break point save. “Before, I hope that I don’t have to hit a shot like this. During, I hope that it’s going to go in and he can’t reach it. And after, it’s thank God I made it…. And then obviously it’s so, so important at deuce to somehow win the game. It doesn’t matter how you do it… you can’t allow yourself to lose a game after saving two break points the way you did, and I held my nerves, held the game, and was able to [get] through it.” 

Federer holds a 5-0 FedEx ATP Head2Head record against Goffin, including a pair of victories in Basel. The Swiss cruised to a win in the 2014 final, conceding only four games, and defeated the Belgian again in a tighter quarter-final match the following year, prevailing 6-3, 3-6, 6-1.

Goffin advanced Friday night with a 7-6(6), 6-3 win over fifth-seeded American Jack Sock in 78 minutes. The Belgian saved two set points in the opening set before capitalising on his first opportunity, and recovered from an early break down in the second as he won four straight games to go up 4-2. He closed out the match with another break of serve.

Goffin is next in line to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals, and continued to add to his lead over his nearest competitors in the Emirates ATP Race To London. With his victory Friday, the 26-year-old moved 280 points ahead of Pablo Carreno Busta, who currently holds the final qualifying spot. Carreno Busta bowed out this week in the second round of the Erste Bank Open 500, while Sam Querrey and Kevin Anderson – at No. 11 and No. 12 in the Race standings – failed to gain ground when they dropped their Vienna openers.

The World No. 10 will be looking to reach his second straight ATP World Tour 500 final. He claimed his biggest career title earlier this month at the Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships 2017 with a victory over Mannarino in the final.

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Break point conversion can make or break a career.

Damir Dzumhur is making a habit of converting break points better than anyone in the world this year as he powers up the Emirates ATP World Tour Rankings to a career-high No. 31 this week. Dzumhur, 25, from Bosnia-Herzegovina, has converted 47.8 per cent (213/445) of his break points from 55 matches in 2017 to lead all players in this key statistical area.

As a comparison, World No. 1, Rafael Nadal is converting 40.9 per cent (285/696) of his break points this season, and second-ranked Roger Federer is at 41.2 per cent (167/405). 

2017: Dzumhur Break Point Conversion By Surface

• Grass = 62%. 13/21 from 4 matches.
• Clay = 51%. 27/53 from 9 matches.
• Hard = 47%. 173/371 from 45 matches.

The Bosnian has an impressive ATP Stats LEADERBOARD Return Rating of 162.5 from the past 52 weeks, making him the fifth best returner on tour during that period.

Past 52 Weeks: Dzumhur Infosys Return Ranking

• 1st – Break Points Converted (48.3%)
• 4th – 1st Serve Return Points Won (32.7%)
• 5th – Infosys Return Rating (162.5)
• 5th – Return Games Won (30.4%)
• 18th – 2nd Serve Return Points Won (51.1%) 

Dzumhur has been in great form in recent weeks, winning two ATP World Tour 250 events out of his past five tournaments. He won his first ATP World Tour title at the St Petersburg Open in September, and then took out the VTB Kremlin Cup in Moscow last week. He is now an impressive 35-23 on the year.

Dzumhur was red-hot returning in St Petersburg, winning 56 per cent (24/43) of break points through five matches. He won a respectable 33 per cent (17/51) in winning Moscow last week.

It is clear to see from the table below that you can closely track Dzumhur’s climb up the rankings with his increased performance converting break points.

Past 3 Years: Break Points Converted/Ranking 

• 2017 = 48% / Ranking No. 31
• 2016 = 45% / Ranking No. 77
• 2015 = 41% / Ranking No. 82

Dzumhur’s 5’9”, 154-pound frame may not be as tall and powerful as other players on tour, but it helps make him lightning fast around the court, and he has developed excellent counter-punching skills that are tailor-made for the return of serve. He is a “model” returner of pace, exhibiting amazing balance while absorbing and redirecting the power of the serve.

He is coming of age at 25 and his career is building towards a Top 20 breakthrough sometime in the near future. He also boasts a 2017 final in Winston-Salem, along with semi-final appearances in Shenzhen and Los Cabos. He entered the Top 50 just a month ago, and his development curve shows no signs of slowing down.

Convention says that a tournament’s seeded players should make their way through the draw. Not in Vienna.

Lucas Pouille leads three unseeded players into the semi-finals of the Erste Bank Open 500 after ousting compatriot Richard Gasquet, 7-6(5), 6-1, in one hour, 31 minutes.

It was Pouille’s third victory in a row against his fellow Frenchman, extending his lead in the pair’s FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry to 3-1. The 23-year-old is into his sixth ATP World Tour semi-final of the season (3-2) as he seeks his third title of the year (Budapest, Stuttgart). Pouille also defeated Gasquet in Marseille this February, 7-5, 6-3, to advance to the final.

While the elder Frenchman, Gasquet, used his guile and consistency in the first set, it was Pouille whose aggression paid dividends in the key moments. Pouille used his overwhelming forehand to gain a 5-1 lead in the tie-break and never looked back from there, going on to break on three occasions in the second set.

Gasquet defeated second seed Dominic Thiem, the No. 6 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, in the second round.

Pouille will next play Great Britain’s Kyle Edmund, who advanced to his third semi-final of the year (BB&T Atlanta Open and Winston-Salem Open) by beating Jan-Lennard Struff of Germany, 6-2, 7-5, in 75 minutes. The pair is tied 1-1 in their Fed Ex ATP Head2Head series.

Philipp Kohlschreiber, who defeated Diego Schwartzman, 7-5, 7-6(6), will play in his fourth semi-final of the season. The German went down a late break in the first set, as Schwartzman served for the opener at 5-3. But Kohlschreiber bounced back to win four straight games to claim the first set. He then converted on his third match point in the second-set tie-break to move on in pursuit of his second title of the year (Kitzbühel).

The veteran will face the only seed in the Vienna semi-finals, confronting the winner of top seed Alexander Zverev and eighth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. If Kohlschreiber plays his compatriot, Zverev, he will enter the match with a 2-1 lead in their FedEx ATP Head2Head rivalry, although both victories came in 2015 while Zverev captured his sole triumph this year in Halle.

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