You have got to win small to win big.

Pablo Carreno Busta is enjoying a breakout season, boasting a career-best Emirates ATP Ranking of No. 17 this week, following his strong run to the Roland Garros quarter-finals. For good measure, he is also ranked No. 18 in doubles, which is only one spot off his career best that he achieved in January after reaching the Australian Open doubles semi-finals.

His climb up the Emirates ATP Rankings very much mirrors his playing style – patient and steady. Carreno Busta has been ranked in the Top 100 in singles for 201 consecutive weeks since 5 August 2013. This is his sixth week in the coveted Top 20.

But just how dominant has he been this season compared to the past couple? What are the metrics that have underpinned his rise?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Carreno Busta’s 2015, 2016 and 2017 seasons identifies small gains over long periods of time.

Carreno Busta: Points Won 2015-2017 Seasons

In 2015, Carreno Busta actually lost more points than he won, finishing the season just outside the Top 50 at No. 67. This is actually typical for players in the 50-100 range. They look successful, but overall they experience a point deficit for the season.

The 25-year-old Spaniard leapt to No. 30 at the end of 2016 by winning just 216 more points than he lost. That represented just 2.2 per cent of his total points (9,774) for the season. From 2015 to 2017, including during the past two weeks at Roland Garros, Carreno Busta has played 22,119 points. He has won just 395 more points than he has lost, representing 1.7 per cent of his total points.

Improvement this year has been powered by making a lot more first serves.

Carreno Busta’s Serving Improvement

Carreno Busta is impressively ranked 11th in the ATP Stats Return LEADERBOARDS, powered by Infosys Nia Data, and 31st on the Serve Leaderboard. One area the Spaniard can improve on when serving is making more first serves on break points.

He is ranked fourth best in 2017 in first serves made at 68 per cent, which was the exact same number he put up at Roland Garros during his quarter-final run. But when facing break point this year, that 68 per cent average has dropped to just 62 per cent (155/252).

As wildly successful as Carreno Busta is, with a Top 20 ranking and more than four million dollars in career prize money, he has barely won more matches than he has lost (102-98), and he has won just 50 per cent of the total points in his career. His ranking speaks to dominance on tour, but the metrics suggest a far more level playing field.

Carreno Busta is definitely on a collision course with a Top 10 ranking. A point here and there will be all that it takes to achieve it. #NextGenATP German Alexander Zverev is currently No. 10, winning 52 per cent of his points in 2017 – the same as Carreno Busta.

The near future looks bright for the Spaniard as well. He has zero points to defend from last year’s grass-court season, so he may get to single digits sooner rather than later.

See Who’s Pushing Carreno Busta In The Emirates ATP Race To London

Four #NextGenATP players found their feet early on the grass at the Ricoh Open as they surged into the second round on Tuesday in ‘s-Hertogenbosch.

Qualifier Daniil Medvedev edged sixth seed and home favourite Robin Haase 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3 in two hours and 18 minutes, saving 12 of the 13 break points he faced.

The 21-year-old Russian, who reached his first ATP World Tour final in Chennai at the start of the year (l. to Bautista Agut), claimed just the second tour-level grass-court win of his career.

Medvedev, who uses a Tecnifibre racquet, set a clash with fellow Next Gen ATP Finals hopeful Thanasi Kokkinakis. The Australian, who is working his way back from a lengthy injury layoff, was a 6-4, 7-5 winner over Mikhail Youzhny. The 21-year-old Kokkinakis struck 16 aces as he claimed the first win of his comeback, following first-round exits in Lyon (l. to Istomin) and Roland Garros (l. to Nishikori).

“It was very tough [to close it out],” said Kokkinakis. “I didn’t get off to a great start, but then came back and played pretty well. I was up 6-2, 4-2 and serving really well, but I knew it was going to be tough to keep serving that well the whole match. He really started playing a lot better at the back end of the second set. I got a bit tighter for sure. I hadn’t served out a match in a long time. It was good to get those nerves out the way.

“It feels great to be competing again, there’s only so long you can practise for. It’s so frustrating being on the practice court for ages. Physically I’m not 100 per cent, still got some things I need to sort out with my body. I’m trying to manage it while I’m playing. That’s the tough part. I’m trying to get the matches in and that workload into my body.”

Like Medvedev, Ernesto Escobedo earned the second grass-court win of his career as he defeated lucky loser Jason Jung 6-4, 6-2 in 64 minutes. The 20-year-old American, a semi-finalist in Houston in April (l. to Bellucci), goes on to face Aljaz Bedene.

Watch: Escobedo At Home Uncovered

Wild card Stefan Kozlov completed a perfect start for #NextGenATP players as he battled past Dustin Brown 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 in 89 minutes. The 19-year-old American claimed his first tour-level win of the season as he set a second-round clash with third seed Ivo Karlovic, a winner of three grass-court titles.

World No. 81 Alexandr Dolgopolov upset fifth seed Steve Darcis as he reached the second round with a 6-2, 7-6(3) win in 88 minutes, hitting 10 aces. Making his debut at this ATP World Tour 250 tournament, the Ukrainian next faces Vasek Pospisil.

“I think I played well,” said Dolgopolov. “I had all the chances in the first set and broke him twice. It was quite comfortable in the second set. I think he played better and I was returning a little worse. Happy to finish in two sets.

“I’ve been playing better [on grass] in the past few years. I’ve made the third round at Wimbledon a couple of times, lost five-setters to [Grigor] Dimitrov and [David] Ferrer. My first few years on tour it was tough, I didn’t like it, I was falling all the time and couldn’t understand the footwork. Even though my game suits the grass, I wasn’t happy with the surface, but now I’m enjoying it much more.”

Second seed Alexander Zverev will open his campaign against Adrian Mannarino after the Frenchman dismissed Australia’s Jordan Thompson 6-4, 6-1. Serbian Janko Tipsarevic, who uses a Tecnifibre racquet, also advanced, beating Japan’s Yuichi Sugita 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-0.

DOUBLES

Third seeds and 2015 Wimbledon champions Jean-Julien Rojer and Horia Tecau prevailed past Frenchmen Jonathan Eysseric and Nicolas Mahut 6-3, 7-6(6). Aussies John Peers and Thompson dismissed #NextGenATP players Zverev and Kokkinakis 6-3, 6-3.

Fourth seeds Fabrice Martin of France and Daniel Nestor of Canada survived a tight battle with Dutchmen Wesley Koolhof and Matwe Middelkoop, moving into the quarter-finals 6-1, 6-7(10), 11-9.

By virtue of his stellar performances this season, and particularly over the past two months, Rafael Nadal has thrust himself to the forefront of the sport once again and in strong contention for his fourth year-end No. 1 finish in the Emirates ATP Rankings (2008, 2010, 2013).

In winning 24 of his 25 matches on the European clay-court swing, the Spanish superstar has lifted three ‘Big Titles’ – his 10th Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, his fifth Mutua Madrid Open and his 10th Roland Garros crown. The Open Era leader for most clay-court titles won (53), also picked up his 10th Barcelona OpenBanc Sabadell trophy in April.

With 45 ‘Big Titles’ – 15 Grand Slams and 30 ATP World Tour Masters 1000s – it has inched Nadal closer to long-time rivals Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. The Spanish superstar wins one big title for every 3.5 events played, an average marginally bettered by Djokovic, whose 47 elite titles have been captured for every 3.4 events played.

Nadal currently leads the Emirates ATP Race To London, a calendar-year points race that started in the first week of January, with 6,915 Race points. As the first player to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals, he is 2,870 points ahead of No. 2-placed Roger Federer, winner of 50 ‘Big Titles’, who has 4,045 Race points. From 17 April to 12 June, Nadal has added 4,680 Race points from five events to his total.

When asked about an assault on No. 1, following his historic title run in Paris, the 31-year-old Nadal said, “I am playing well and I am in a good position… If I am able to keep playing well, [then] why not?”

Current and Former Champions’ Big Titles Won (Records Since 1990)

 * Becker’s four other Grand Slam titles came before 1990.
** Edberg’s three other Grand Slam titles came before 1990.

All eyes now turn to Federer to see how the Swiss will respond in the No. 1 battle as the ATP World Tour moves to grass in the next five weeks. The 35-year-old is making his eagerly anticipated return to action at this week’s Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart. Nadal is scheduled to compete at next week’s Aegon Championships.

Since 2004, the year-end No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings has either been first or second in the year-to-date standings after Roland Garros.

Nadal has been among the top two in the year-to-date standings after Roland Garros in 11 of the past 14 years. This is the first time since 2010 that Nadal and Federer occupy the top two spots in the Emirates ATP Race To London at this stage in the season.

Rafael Nadal will look to add the Nitto ATP Finals trophy to his impressive collection when he returns to The O2 this November. The Spaniard becomes the first player to clinch a berth at the prestigious season-ending tournament, to be staged 12-19 November in London, after winning his record 10th Roland Garros title on Sunday in Paris.

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“I’ve had a great season so far and I am happy to have already qualified for London,” said Nadal. “I could not play last year because of injury so I look forward to returning in November.”

Since first qualifying in 2005, Nadal has earned a place in the elite eight-man field for 13 straight seasons. He achieved his best results in 2010 and ‘13, when he finished runner-up to Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic respectively.

This season, Nadal has compiled an ATP-best 43-6 match record with four titles. In addition to becoming the first player in the Open Era to claim 10 titles at a single Grand Slam tournament, he joined Novak Djokovic at the top of the all-time ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title leaders list, taking his haul to 30 with his triumphs at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and Mutua Madrid Open. He also won the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell title and reached three other finals, at the Australian Open, Miami Open presented by Itau (l. to Federer at both) and Abierto Mexicano Telcel in Acapulco.

Six-time champion Federer – winner of the Australian Open, BNP Paribas Open and Miami Open titles – is next in line to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals and returns to action this week on grass at the MercedesCup in Stuttgart. Dominic Thiem stands third in the Emirates ATP Race to London, and is followed in the standings by Stan Wawrinka, Alexander Zverev, Djokovic and defending champion Andy Murray.

The Nitto ATP Finals welcomes more than 250,000 fans to The O2 arena each year, as well as generating a global TV viewership of more than 100 million, as the ATP’s best eight singles players and doubles teams compete over eight days at the biggest indoor tennis tournament in the world.

A rejuvenated Roger Federer is committing to a full schedule in the second half of the season, saying that he’s had enough of practice and is hoping to quickly recapture his stunning early-season form. Fresh off a two-month break to rest his 35-year-old body, Federer returns to the ATP World Tour this week at the grass-court MercedesCup in Stuttgart.

“There are no more breaks now,” Federer told ATPWorldTour.com Monday. “I’ve had enough breaks. I’m a practice world champion now and that’s not who I want to be. I want to be a champ on the match courts. So I’m going to be playing a regular schedule for the second part of the season… And this is the beginning here at the MercedesCup in Stuttgart.

After an unpredictable first half of the season that now sees Rafael Nadal and Federer in first and second place in the Emirates ATP Race To London, the Swiss said that he remains surprised at how the season has unfolded. When Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic played a pulsating final in Doha in the first week of the season, most tennis fans thought that last year’s No. 1 and No. 2 finishers would wage a two-man battle for the year-end No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking again in 2017.

So far this season it has been a two-way battle for year-end No. 1… between Federer and Nadal, The Spaniard has now firmed as a strong favourite following a dominant clay-court swing that included titles No. 10 in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and Roland Garros, as well as a fifth crown in Madrid. But Federer will hope to close that gap during the next five weeks on his favourite surface, grass. He’s playing the next two weeks in Stuttgart and Halle before taking a week off before chasing an eighth title at Wimbledon.

“I was terribly surprised to win the Australian Open and to back it up and win the sunshine double in Indian Wells and Miami was a complete surprise to me,” Federer said. “I think Rafa winning the French Open is less of a surprise because he’d done it nine times before… I was hoping he was going to dominate the clay-court season like the olden days.

“But I’m still surprised we were able to do it. It maybe had something to do with Murray having a bit of a letdown after his great finish to last year and Novak not playing his absolute best. We were able to take advantage of the fact that we were in great shape and came refreshed into the season after our injuries at the end of last year.”

Federer readily admits that Nadal is a hot favourite to finish No. 1 for the fourth time, but says that the second half of 2017 promises to be much more competitive than the first half.

“Obviously Rafa is in great position to finish World No. 1. For him it’s going to be all about staying injury free. For me it’s about getting back to winning ways, where I left off in Miami.

“I’m sure a lot of guys are going to start playing their best in the second half of the season, like Murray, Djokovic, Nishikori, Raonic, Zverev, Kyrgios, Stan. We’ll all be playing our best tennis. It’s going to be an epic finish to the end of the season. Quite exciting actually for the ATP Tour.”

Federer’s opening match in Stuttgart will be against the winner of Frenchman Pierre-Hugues Herbert and German veteran Tommy Haas.

Tommy Haas is ready for one last run in Stuttgart. The 39-year-old German, who has said he will retire after this season, is making his seventh and final appearance at the MercedesCup in Stuttgart this week.

Haas, who reached the final in 1999 when the tournament was played on clay, will be making his second appearance at the grass-court edition of the event. He fell in the second round in 2015, the first year the tournament had transitioned to grass.

“I am very excited that my body is co-operating and I have the chance to play here one more time in Stuttgart,” Haas said on Monday.

The right-hander is 4-8 so far this season but he has thrived on grass courts. Two of his 15 ATP World Tour titles have come on the surface – the 2009 and 2013 Gerry Weber Open crowns in Halle.

“I’m also looking forward to Halle next week,” Haas said. “There are a lot of positive emotions after lots of gruelling hours to get ready again.”

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Haas and top seed Roger Federer visited the Stuttgart city centre on Monday morning, hitting some balls at the Schlossplatz, the largest square. It is also the home to the Neues Schloss, built between 1746 and 1807.

Federer is making his second appearance at the MercedesCup after falling in the semi-finals last year to Austrian Dominic Thiem.

“It was a great experience last year, a lovely tournament with great people,” said Federer. “So I am happy to begin the grass swing here again, playing with Tommy and doing activities in the city together. I can’t wait to play my first match on Wednesday possibly against Tommy. I’m happy to be back in tournament mode again after a 10-week spell of not playing tournaments.”

Federer, a winner of 15 grass-court titles, could meet Haas or Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the MercedesCup second round. The 35-year-old Swiss right-hander is competing at an ATP World Tour tournament for the first time since capturing the 93rd title of his career at the Miami Open presented by Itau (d. Nadal) on 2 April.