The battleground for No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings is beginning to take shape. The picture will become clearer over the next two weeks as to whether Andy Murray is to remain in top spot.

Here are the key scenarios for the four players in contention for No. 1 on 17 July, the Monday after Wimbledon concludes…

• Andy Murray will remain No. 1 by reaching his fourth Wimbledon final;
• Rafael Nadal will return to No. 1 by reaching his sixth Wimbledon final;
• Stan Wawrinka will debut at No. 1 by winning his first Wimbledon title;
• Novak Djokovic will return to No. 1 by winning his fourth Wimbledon title, but only if both Murray and Nadal lose before the semi-finals.

Emirates ATP Rankings Points Totals On 17 July By Wimbledon Results

World No. 1 Murray, who lost his opening match at last week’s Aegon Championships, where he had been the defending champion, currently has a 2,105 points lead over No. 2-ranked Rafael Nadal (7,285) in the 52-week Emirates ATP Rankings. But the Scot has 2,000 points dropping off as defending champion at Wimbledon, which begins on 3 July.

So, with a two-week time horizon, Murray’s effective lead over the Spaniard is a mere 105 points.

Should Nadal perform well at SW19 and continue his strong run of form, which includes winning 24 of his past 25 matches, then there will be a battle royale for No. 1. The left-hander must reach at least the fourth round to have a chance of rising to No. 1. If seedings hold and Murray and Nadal meet in the semi-finals, the winner of that match will be No. 1 after Wimbledon.

Nadal, the 2008 and 2010 Wimbledon champion, does not have any points to defend through to mid-August. Last year, the Spaniard was forced out of tournaments that awarded Emirates ATP Rankings points, due to a left wrist injury, from 26 May to 17 August 2016.

Murray has spent the past 34 weeks at No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings since first attaining the top spot on 7 November 2016. Nadal has spent a total of 141 weeks – in three separate stints – at No. 1, but was last at the summit of men’s professional tennis on 6 July 2014.

View Latest Emirates ATP Rankings

World No. 3 Wawrinka must win the title to have a chance of usurping No. 1. The Swiss, who has brought on board Paul Annacone, the former coach of Pete Sampras and Roger Federer, for the 2017 grass-court swing, is defending just 45 points after a 2016 Wimbledon second-round exit. He is drawn in Murray’s quarter. Should Wawrinka win the title, it would mean that Murray could not advance beyond the quarters and Nadal could go no farther than the semis. Should Wawrinka meet Djokovic in the final, that match would decide No. 1.

Djokovic, who dropped out of the Top 2 on 12 June for the first time since 4 July 2011, on Saturday won the Aegon International in Eastbourne – his first ATP World Tour grass-court event prior to Wimbledon since 2010 London-Queen’s Club. 

While Djokovic will lose 90 points from his tally of 5,805 points for his 2016 Wimbledon third-round exit, like Wawrinka, the Serbian must win Wimbledon to stand a chance of returning to No. 1. For Djokovic to add to his 223 weeks at No. 1, he would have to win the title and have Murray and Nadal lose in the quarter-finals (or earlier).

While still in contention for year-end No. 1 honours, seven-time tournament champion Roger Federer cannot move into top spot after Wimbledon, despite capturing his ninth trophy at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle last week. 

Wimbledon’s grass is cut to eight millimetres, and by 17 July – when the post-Championships’ Emirates ATP Rankings are published, a similarly fine margin may be all that separates the contenders for No. 1.

What a difference a year makes. It has been nearly one year since Roger Federer ended his 2016 campaign following a semi-final defeat at Wimbledon to Milos Raonic. One year since the Swiss hung up his racquet in order to continue to rehab his knee following surgery.

As all eyes once again turn to the All England Club for the Wimbledon Championships, Federer is back and ready to retake his throne. Fresh and fit, the 35 year old says the right preparation is essential to success. How does the seven-time champion get ready for his 19th consecutive appearance at SW19?

“Today, for instance, I was just trying to have good energy in practice,” Federer told the assembled media on Saturday. “Short and sweet, just get it done. Tomorrow I’ll be off. Then sort of basically resting, just making sure I come in fresh into that first round with the right mindset.

“I don’t want to be at the mercy of my opponent. I want to take charge and play aggressive myself. So for that I need to be fast on my feet and quick in my mind. I just need enough rest so I can play enough inspired tennis. 

“In practice itself, I’m just trying to play forward, serve-and-volleying some. Making sure I don’t get stuck behind the baseline and just making shots. It’s more being really proactive in practice right now.”

Most Grand Slam Appearances (entering Wimbledon 2017)

Federer is bidding for his eighth Wimbledon crown, which would make him the all-time title leader at the All England Club. He is currently tied with Pete Sampras and William Renshaw with seven singles trophies. He would also join Rafael Nadal as the only players to win at least eight titles at a single Grand Slam tournament, with Nadal also achieving the feat at Roland Garros. The Spaniard holds the record with 10 titles after completing ‘La Decima’ last month.

Federer knows that he’ll have his work cut out to lift the trophy again this year. With Nadal in top form after dominating the clay-court season, Djokovic on the heels of a title in Eastbourne and Murray the defending champion, it won’t be a routine task.

“Depending how fit he is, if he’s anything close to 100 per cent physically, I consider [Andy] one of the big favorites to win the tournament,” Federer added. “It’s that simple. It’s the same for Novak and the same for Rafa.

“I think it’s very even when we put it all out on the line. Everybody has their own little story right now. I feel like Andy’s one of the best players in the first week at Wimbledon, so I don’t worry too much for him there. He can play himself into shape hopefully for week two.

“Novak is just coming back from winning Eastbourne now. Rafa is coming in red hot from the clay. So I see it positive for them rather than negative in some shape. But I see that they are going to be tough to beat here.”

Federer is riding a wave of momentum into his 70th Grand Slam main draw appearance, having streaked to the title at the Gerry Weber Open without dropping a set. He owns a staggering 24-2 win-loss mark in 2017, also including victories at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami, as well as his 18th major title at the Australian Open.

He will open with a tough test against the unpredictable Alexandr Dolgopolov. Federer has not dropped a set in three FedEx ATP Head2Head encounters, with their most recent meeting coming at the 2016 Australian Open. A potential second round date with #NextGenATP star Stefanos Tsitsipas awaits, with Raonic, Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov and John Isner also looming in his quarter of the draw.

On paper, the 2017 Wimbledon Championships, which start on Monday, could be Rafael Nadal’s best chance in years to win another title at the All England Club. The Spaniard has won 24 of his past 25 matches, including three titles – Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters, Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell and the Mutua Madrid Open – en route to his 10^th Roland Garros crown during the European clay-court swing.

He’s been healthy all season long, has posted a 43-6 record so far and appears to be in good health heading into his 12^th Wimbledon.

“You can imagine playing here in Wimbledon for me has always been very, very special. It was one of the biggest goals that I had when I started to have success in this sport, to play well in this tournament,” Nadal said in his pre-tournament press conference on Saturday. “Let’s see what’s going on this year. I know it is always difficult. I am excited to be playing again here, in a tournament that I really love, I really enjoy playing. But at the same time I tell you, it is a tournament that you can go out very early in the tournament.”

Indeed, Nadal has either been wide smile or quick exit at SW19. From 2006-2011, the Spaniard reached the final five consecutive times, hoisting the Gentlemen’s Singles Trophy twice – 2008 and 2010. But Nadal has also failed to reach the quarter-finals six times at Wimbledon. He missed the tournament last year because of a left wrist injury.

Nadal On The Grass At Wimbledon

Besides his wrist, Nadal’s knees have also hampered him on grass. “It’s true that what happened with my knees in 2012 was more difficult. At the same time it’s true that in 2014 I played a good event. I lost in the fourth round against Nick. But I had my chances, too. After that, last year I couldn’t play, 2015 was not my year, of course,” Nadal said. “But at the same time, if I am able to go through at the beginning, I think I am with confidence. I am playing well since the beginning of the season, so let’s see.”

Nadal was scheduled to start his grass-court season last week at the Aegon Championships at The Queen’s Club. But he decided to rest instead after his nonstop clay-court season. Last week, he practised on grass courts on his home island of Mallorca, which was hosting a WTA event.

“After the last three months and after what happened in Roland Garros, we decided that for my body it’s better to have a slower change to the grass. We were practising little bit more every day. I was lucky to have a tournament there in Mallorca. That was a big help,” Nadal said.

Read More: Djokovic Adds Coach To Team

He will have extra incentive to do well this year at Wimbledon. Regardless of how his peers fare, if Nadal reaches his sixth Wimbledon final, he will return to No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings for the first time since 23 June 2014.

The odds are good that at least one of the “Big Four” members will win the title. Nadal, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have swept the past 14 Wimbledon titles. Nadal faces World No. 137 John Millman of Australia in the first round.

The wait is finally over for 28-year-old Yuichi Sugita, who lifted his first ATP World Tour trophy on Saturday at the Antalya Open. He defeated Adrian Mannarino 6-1, 7-6(4), prevailing after one hour and 29 minutes.

“I’m really happy to be the first champion in Antalya,” Sugita said during the trophy presentation. “This is the most emotional moment of my career. I’ve won many Futures and Challenger titles, but never at a big tournament like this. It’s just amazing. I can’t believe it.”

Sugita is the fourth first-time winner on the ATP World Tour this year, joining Sydney winner Gilles Muller, Memphis champ Ryan Harrison and Marrakech titlist Borna Coric. He is also just the third Japanese player to ever win on the circuit, alongside Shuzo Matsuoka and Kei Nishikori.

First Time Winner Spotlight: Muller | Harrison | Coric

ATPWorldTour.com spoke to Sugita after his victory:

You are the third Japanese player to win an ATP World Tour title. What does this accomplishment mean to you?
Before the final, I heard that if I win the tournament, I will be the third Japanese player to win on the ATP World Tour. This was amazing. I made my first semi-final here, then the final and the title. I just played my best tennis and I’m really proud of the way I played today.

You are now in the Top 50 of the Emirates ATP Rankings. Do you have any new ranking goals for the rest of the year?
I’m going to try to be seeded for the Grand Slams (Top 32). I need to do a little bit more, but I feel I can do it now. I really want to try that. 

Is there a player that you looked up to and admired when you were growing up?
Roger Federer. I played him last week (at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle) and it was a great experience. Maybe that’s why I played so well this week.

Is grass your favourite surface?
Yes it is. My first time qualifying for a Grand Slam was at Wimbledon  (in 2014) and now I won my first title on grass. I played really well the whole week.

How did you play through the hot conditions this week?
In Japan, it’s very humid in the summer like it is here. I have an advantage for these conditions. I still had to play against very high level players, so I needed to be fit.

Amazing! ?

?? Yuichi Sugita wins his first ever title!#AntalyaOpen pic.twitter.com/nH7O6rPAiJ

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) July 1, 2017