Almost exactly two years ago, ATPTour.com spoke to Andy Murray about tennis’ future stars. Who would be the next new World No. 1 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings?

“Of the current ones, Medvedev would be the guy I would expect to get there first. I think maybe he will need to be a little bit more consistent on the clay to get there, but I think he’s got a good chance,” Murray said at the time. “From the young, young ones, I think [Carlos] Alcaraz is really, really good. I think he’s got a good chance at it.”

The Scot’s words proved prophetic. Just a few weeks later, Medvedev won his first major at the US Open and in February 2022 became the first World No. 1 since the start of the Big Four’s reign. Medvedev was No. 2 at the time of Murray’s declaration, so that was not far-fetched.

However, Alcaraz had not yet cracked the world’s Top 50 and had less than a month earlier claimed his maiden ATP Tour title in Umag. Murray last week told ATPTour.com that he had good reason to believe in the Spaniard. The Scot had spoken to his coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Murray admittedly did not know Alcaraz “really well” and had not seen much of him on the practice court or in the gym. He recalled: “I asked Ferrero, ‘Does he love tennis? Does he work hard?”

Watch Fan Questions With Murray:

During the conversation between the two former World No. 1s, Ferrero explained to Murray that Alcaraz is “really good with that stuff. Like he’s brilliant, he’s really into it”.

“That was sort of enough for me having seen his game and then hearing from his coach and someone who knows what hard work is like that he was going to go on potentially to have a great career,” Murray said.

The 46-time tour-level champion has faced Alcaraz in two Lexus ATP Head2Head meetings, both of which came in 2021. They split those clashes.

The world has seen the technical skill that the Spaniard brings to the court, from his ferocious forehand to delicate drop shot and movement around the court. But Murray feels that something else in the 20-year-old’s game sticks out the most.

“The thing that I love about watching him is just the freedom that he plays with and part of that is youth I think. I just hope he doesn’t lose that,” Murray said. “That’s the one thing I would love to just see him continue to play that sort of style of tennis that he plays with. The drop shots or serve-volleys. Sometimes it looks a little bit Kamikaze, but he just is totally instinctive. And I love that.”

Murray was in the Centre Court crowd to watch this year’s Wimbledon final between Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The Spaniard won a memorable five-setter to claim his first trophy at The Championships.

“I thought that the last few sets were really good. It was very hard conditions that day. I don’t know on the TV how easy it was to see but it was really windy, but it wasn’t like consistent wind. It was blustery and lots of gusts,” Murray said. “The first couple of sets, tennis-wise, I didn’t think were amazing. But I thought the last few sets considering how hard it was, there was some brilliant, brilliant stuff in there and I really enjoyed the final.”

It was the first time Murray had sat and watched a full match from the stands “for a long time”.

“I learned a lot from it and could have gone either way. Novak had his chance at the beginning of the fifth set,” Murray said. “But Alcaraz did incredibly well to win that particularly after the first set because it was really quick. Novak looked great, really comfortable. He did really well to win it.

“There was one point right at the end of the second set where Novak missed a couple of backhands in a row. I think it was on the set point and then the point straight afterwards, which maybe changed things a little bit. It would have been hard to come back from to sets down. But yeah, it was a good match.”

Gabriel Diallo will never forget his first ATP Tour win.

The 21-year-old Canadian stunned Washington champion Daniel Evans 7-6(4), 7-5 on home soil Tuesday to reach the second round of the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers.

The No. 141 player in the Pepperstone ATP Ranking entered the match with an 0-4 tour-level record. But he showed nerves of steel under pressure to close out the in-form Briton after two hours.

“Words cannot really describe how I feel right now. I hope that everyone in this planet can feel what I’m feeling right now, this level of happiness,” Diallo said in his on-court interview. “But obviously it doesn’t come without hard work behind the scenes. People don’t know us as tennis players, we travel, we lose first round, we go to crazy places losing first round, it’s so tough.

“But it shows that hard work eventually pays off and hopefully this can be the start of something.”

Evans trailed by a break on three separate occasions in the second set. After digging out of trouble when serving to stay in the match at 3-5 in the second set, Evans turned towards his team and let out a roar, pumping himself up to try to find energy resources to turn things around, while also making his opponent aware of the gravitas of the moment.

Diallo stumbled serving out the match, hitting a double fault long to relinquish his break. But the Canadian did not panic, taking advantage of unforced forehand errors from Evans in the next game before serving out the match at the second opportunity.

It marked Diallo’s second win of the year against Evans, whom he eliminated at an ATP Challenger Tour event in Surbiton on grass. What is Diallo’s secret against Evans?

“I have no idea. Luck, a lot of luck. And obviously playing [at] home in my home country, with my fans and my family, it helps a lot,” said Diallo, who will next play Australian Alex de Minaur. “But I got I got lucky twice and we’ll see the next time.”

In other action Tuesday evening, Max Purcell spoiled Felix Auger-Aliassime’s 23rd birthday by defeating the home favourite 6-4, 6-4.

The Australian dropped just three points behind his first serve and did not face a break point to upset the 10th seed, who committed 29 unforced errors to Purcell’s 13 throughout the one-hour, 35-minute contest.

“These top guys haven’t played me much, so they don’t really know too many of my patterns yet,” Purcell said in his on-court interview. “I’m sure Felix will figure it out at some point and smoke me. But I think it’s a little bit of that unknown and I guess I have nothing to lose out here as well. In saying that, I still trust that my level is good enough to play with these big guys.”

Purcell displayed great variety, often implementing slice, to earn his maiden win at ATP Masters 1000 level and second victory against the Canadian, whom he also beat at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Purcell’s win on Tuesday against the World No. 12 marks the highest-ranked win of his career. The 25-year-old will next meet three-time major champion Andy Murray.

Auger-Aliassime fell to 0-3 on his birthday (2018, 2019). The Canadian, who was a quarter-finalist in Montreal last year, is on a five-match skid.

Alex de Minaur’s remarkable mid-match surge proved the difference on Tuesday at the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers as the Australian upset 11th seed Cameron Norrie 7-5, 6-4 at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Toronto.

De Minaur won seven of eight games from 3-5 down in the first set to notch a one-hour, 43-minute triumph in his third Lexus ATP Head2Head meeting with Norrie. In the first of those games, Norrie let slip a set point at 40/30 and then dropped serve with a double fault after repeatedly struggling with his ball toss in the strong Toronto wind.

“It was definitely not easy conditions out here. It was blowing a gale, it didn’t make for pretty tennis,” said De Minaur. “So I think we both struggled a bit out here today, but I’m happy I was able to get the win over an incredible opponent.”

De Minaur is now 18-8 on hard courts for the season, a tally that includes his run to a maiden ATP 500 crown in Acapulco. The 24-year-old last week reached the championship match in Los Cabos, and he will take on Washington winner Daniel Evans or home wild card Gabriel Diallo next as he looks to continue his strong recent form.

“I’m just finding my game,” said De Minaur, who also reached a final on grass this year at The Queen’s Club in June. “I’ve always thought I’ve had this level, and now I’ve just put a couple of good matches together and that gives you confidence. So you build on that, and hopefully we can keep it going.”

Ugo Humbert also progressed on Tuesday in the same section of the draw. The Frenchman overhauled Nicolas Jarry 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in two hours, 34 minutes to reach the second round at the Canadian Masters 1000 event for the second time.

Having reached semi-finals in Newport and Atlanta and the quarter-finals in Washington across the past three weeks, Humbert arrived in Toronto full of confidence. He will hope to carry that into his second-round match as he looks to upset eighth seed Taylor Fritz.

There are four ways a point starts in tennis. Carlos Alcaraz is the best-performing player in more than a decade in one of them. Which one do you think it is?

The four ways a point starts are:

1. Your first serve.
2. Your second serve.
3. Opponent’s first serve.
4. Opponent’s second serve.

Alcaraz is currently No. 1 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings and has amassed a formidable 47-4 record this season, including six titles, coming into the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers in Toronto.

So, where is he currently the peak performer so far in 2023? An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis uncovers precisely where the 20-year-old Spaniard sits alone at the top of the mountain.

2023: Alcaraz Category Ratings (Before Toronto)

• 1st – First Serve Return Points Won (36.87%)
• 2nd – Second Serve Return Points Won (54.33%)
• 3rd – Second Serve Points Won (55.95%)
• 21st – First Serve Points Won (72.75%)

Alcaraz is winning an eye-opening 36.87 per cent (924/2506) of first-serve return points from 51 matches this season. He is the only player on the ATP Tour to break through the 35 per cent threshold in 2023. The four players who have won north of 34 per cent are:

Carlos Alcaraz – 36.87%
Novak Djokovic – 34.47%
Francisco Cerundolo – 34.36%
Daniil Medvedev – 34.22%

Alcaraz’s first-serve return win percentage so far in 2023 is the highest since 2012, when Rafael Nadal won 37.84 per cent. Spanish players have dominated this specific stat since official match statistics were first recorded in 1991. Spanish players to finish year-end No. 1 in this category include Nadal (2005, 2008, 2014, 2016-19), David Ferrer (2015), Fernando Vicente (1999), Alex Corretja (1997), Carlos Costa (1996) and Javier Sanchez (1993).

A secret to Alcaraz’s success in winning points against first serves may very well be his adaptability to find the sweet spot of where to stand based on the surface he is playing. The following data comes from the Infosys ATP Stats Second Screen. 

Alcaraz: Average Contact Point Behind Baseline vs. First Serves

Queens – Grass Court
Final vs. De Minaur = 1.84 m
SF vs. Korda = 1.48 m 
QF vs. Dimitrov = 1.29 m
R16 vs. Lehecka = 1.16 m
R32 vs. Rinderknech = 1.69 m
Average = 1.49 m

Indian Wells – Hard Court
Final vs. Medvedev = 1.52 m
SF vs. J. Sinner = 1.49 m
QF vs. F. Auger-Aliassime = 1.54 m
R16 vs. J. Draper = 1.73 m
R32 vs.T. Griekspoor = 1.84 m
R64 vs. T. Kokkinakis = 2.18 m
Average = 1.71 m

Madrid – Clay Court
Final vs. Struff = 5.0 m
Semi vs. Coric = 5.77 m
QF vs. Khachanov = 4.26 m
R16 vs. Zverev = 4.74 m 
R32 vs. Dimitrov = 4.01 m
R64 vs. Ruusuvuori = 5.26 m
Average = 4.84 m

Alcaraz made contact just 1.49 metres on average behind the baseline against first serves to take the title at Queens. He adjusted further back to win on hard courts at Indian Wells, averaging 1.71 metres behind the baseline. He then moved more than double that distance further back to take the title in Madrid, making contact an average of 4.84 metres behind the baseline.

Alcaraz’s clean, simple, and ruthlessly efficient technique is ideally suited to return powerful first serves. His court savvy also helps him find the bliss point of where to stand.

“I just felt alive again.”

Matteo Berrettini said that last month at Wimbledon. After several months of injury struggles that prevented the Italian from thrilling fans with his powerful game, the 27-year-old finally felt like himself. A former finalist at the grass-court major, a run to the fourth round was a victory.

“Just feeling alive, it means that it’s you. You’re doing it for [yourself] and you’re not thinking about anything else,” Berrettini told ATPTour.com. “This is what you love to do.

“That’s what I lost a little bit [with the] many injuries that I had. I lost the joy for the sport. I lost everything… That’s for me what makes me feel alive.”

At his best, the Rome native is a force on the tennis court. His serve and forehand are among the biggest in the sport. But as he struggled physically, those traits meant little.

One of the most difficult blows came at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, where Berrettini withdrew before facing Holger Rune in the third round due to an oblique injury.

“Monte-Carlo was really tough for many reasons, because I started to feel good again. I enjoyed the [second-round] match and it was my birthday, and I got injured. I couldn’t believe it,” Berrettini said. “I had to miss the clay season again, [the] Rome tournament that for me is really special. So that one was really bad.”

Berrettini made his return early in the grass-court season in Stuttgart. But the Italian was far from top form against close friend and countryman Lorenzo Sonego. Berrettini won just three games in the match and in a jarring scene, he covered his eyes and suppressed tears as he walked off court gingerly.

“I felt not ready, I felt really kind of sad on court and at Queen’s [Club] I felt my ab again. So I was like, this is a never-ending story. I saw everything dark,” Berrettini said. “I thought there was going to be no chance that I was going to be able to play again, missing Wimbledon again after last year COVID. [I had] so many thoughts, negative thoughts.”

In that difficult moment, Berrettini relied on his family, girlfriend and team. They helped him find a different state of mind.

“They kind of put me in a position where I had to fight again. And in that moment, you don’t really want to fight anymore. You just want to let it go and go somewhere else,” Berrettini said. “But I fought through and that was, I think, the turning point.”

Bouncing back from such a low made Berrettini’s effort at Wimbledon that much more rewarding. After earning revenge against Sonego, the Italian ousted Alex de Minaur and Alexander Zverev in straight sets before pushing eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz to four sets.

“I think with Carlos, he’s really good and deserved to win the tournament. But I felt like I could have done better and I just didn’t have enough tennis, enough training and he was just better than me on that occasion,” Berrettini said. “Leaving the court thinking about what I could have done better was like a dream a few weeks before. I was like, I wish I could think about what I can improve on court [with] my forehand, backhand, whatever, and not just focus on, ‘Okay, I have to be healthy.’

“That was also a moment of joy even though I lost.”

Although Berrettini is a fierce competitor who wants to win, he was able to put things into context in the days after his loss to Alcaraz. The seven-time ATP Tour titlist was not worrying about his body, but his game.

That is why Berrettini is so happy this week at the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers in Toronto, where he defeated Gregoire Barrere on Monday in straight sets to reach the second round.

“It feels good, brings back good memories. I didn’t play many tournaments in a row in a long time. I’m getting used to it again,” Berrettini said. “The other day, I was thinking about the fact that I kind of lost the travel part, being away from home for a long time, and I’m getting used to it again.

“That’s what I do, that’s what I like. I like to do what makes me feel happy.”

One of the most stunning moments of Wimbledon came in a third-round match between Holger Rune and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Serving at 8/8 in a final-set tie-break, Davidovich Fokina was tight. Out of nowhere, the Spaniard used an underarm serve, which backfired. Rune quickly won the point before closing out the match for a place in the fourth round.

Davidovich Fokina, Rune, the fans at the All England Club and viewers from around the world were shocked by the Spaniard’s decision to resort to an underarm serve in one of the most important moments of his career. It was a selection that could have made a painful loss even more difficult.

But Davidovich Fokina revealed on Monday at the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers that while he was disappointed, he shrugged it off by the time he reached the locker room. The Spaniard bantered with his opponent that they had split two crazy matches after defeating Rune in a final-set tie-break earlier in the year in Madrid.

“I was dead, because it was a tough match. But I was okay. Life continues,” Davidovich Fokina told ATPTour.com. “I was a little bit sad obviously, because I wanted to play the next round. I was feeling very good and playing very good. But in the end, I’m here in Toronto and growing my game.”

That attitude is the culmination of a mindset shift Davidovich Fokina has made in the past couple of months. Instead of spending his free time on social media — “I saw that I was wasting a lot of time,” he said — the 24-year-old has turned his attention to reading.

“I started this summer. My coach and my team, everything that they [have] told me, I read that [in the] books. But when you don’t read it by yourself, you don’t realise that you have to do [it] that way,” Davidovich Fokina said. “I’ve already read three books in a couple of months and I was always saying that I couldn’t read one book or one page. Now I did three books!”

All three are personal transformation books: Atomic Habits, The Subtle Art Of Not Giving A F*** and The Life-Changing Power of Gratitude.

One of Davidovich Fokina’s biggest takeaways was the importance of enjoying himself while competing. One of the most entertaining players on the ATP Tour, the No. 37 player in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings has often been up and down on court. He is making a concerted effort to smile more during matches.

“I have to smile more and more because when I smile, it’s like my game is going through my body. If I’m happy, my game is going. If I’m angry, I cannot win one point,” Davidovich Fokina said. “I’m trying to be happy, not only on court. Off court, I have to do the same, because when you go on court, you have to be more focused and more on tennis things. But of course, you have to be happy, be humble with all the other [people] [and] to be smiling.

“At the end, we are humans and we are not higher [than] the other ones. We have to be like this.”

Instead of allowing a devastating defeat at Wimbledon to hurt the rest of his season, Davidovich Fokina has flipped his mindset and emerged more positive.

“It’s more than winning and losing. It’s a game. You will lose and you will win. You will win a five-hour battle or you will lose that five-hour battle,” Davidovich Fokina said. “You have to know that it’s going to be like this all your life. When you agree, and you know that it’s going to be like this and you accept it, it’s going to be easier for you.”

After dropping the first set in a 26-point tie-break that ended with a bizarre incident involving Tiafoe touching the net outside the singles post, the 32-year-old rallied to take the second set in a tie-break before racing to a 3-0 lead in the third en route to closing out a 6-7(12), 7-6(4), 6-3 win.

“Two years away, five years from playing in Toronto, a whole four years since I got to play in front of my parents, who were there for the majority of my matches as junior and a majority of my matches as a pro. All of these things came together for a great night for me and I’m incredible grateful for it,” Raonic said.

Raonic, who as the first Canadian to crack the Top 10 of Pepperstone ATP Rankings has inspired the current generation of countrymen including Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov, dropped 37 aces in his first appearance on home soil since 2019 and in his first hard-court match in more than two years.

More to follow…