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Insider Notebook: Upset Analysis

Insider Notebook: Upset Analysis

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

A deeper look at the Dubai upsets: After three days of play at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Champions, no seeds remain in the tournament. This is the first time the seeds went winless at a WTA event and just the fourth time no seeds advanced to the quarterfinals (2014 Bastad, 2012 Bogota, 2009 Hobart).

Needless to say, this week’s results in Dubai are a statistical anomaly, especially for a Premier tournament. The withdrawals of World No.1 Serena Williams, Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber, and Australian Open semifinalist Agnieszka Radwanska — the top three women on the Road to Singapore leaderboard — reshuffled the top seeds in Dubai and injected some level of unpredictability in a tournament where conditions are already tricky. The balls tend to fly and the courts have been recently resurfaced. Control is at a premium.

But a closer look at the top seeds’ opening round match-ups does provide some context for this unprecedented exodus. For No.5 seed Belinda Bencic and No.7 seed Roberta Vinci, who played the St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy final on Sunday, both women arrived less than 24 hours before their opening round matches. Bencic lost to Jelena Jankovic, no slouch of a player herself, while Vinci looked understandably sluggish in a 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 loss to qualifier Yaroslava Shvedova.

As for the remaining six seeds:

Simona Halep

Ana Ivanovic d. No.1 Simona Halep 7-6(2), 6-2: It’s been a sputtering start to the season for Halep, who dropped to 3-3 this season. Halep took a late wildcard into Dubai after deciding to postpone nasal surgery. Her mantra from the start of the season has been simple and repetitive: Matches, matches, matches. Halep has yet to play herself into form and the rustiness, particularly on the big points, shows.

“I’m disappointed that I lost but it’s okay,” Halep said. “I feel good. Physically I’m okay. I have no pain anywhere. It’s good, and the most important thing is that I’m healthy.”

As for Ivanovic, she’s rebounded well from a disappointing 2015 season. After going 0-2 to start the year her level has improved week after week. She was dominated Madison Keys for most of their third round match at the Australian Open, but get nervous in the end, losing 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. She made the semifinals last week in St. Petersburg, only to lose to the slicing-and-dicing wiles of Vinci.

But Ivanovic carried that form into Dubai this week. She blasted No.35 Daria Gavrilova off the court in the first round, losing just one game. And her win over Halep on Wednesday was her first top 5 win since the 2014 WTA Finals, when she beat…Simona Halep.

Garbine Muguruza

Elina Svitolina d. No.2 Garbiñe Muguruza 7-6(3), 6-3: Svitolina has been playing at a good level. It just hasn’t been obvious after a surprising second round loss to Naomi Osaka at the Australian Open. Could her decision to hire Justine Henin as a coaching consultant inject a sense of urgency in the Ukrainian’s game? Her improvement over the years has been steady but the Henin hiring may just signal a new level of hunger and ambition.

Much like Halep, Muguruza’s 2016 start has struggled to gain traction. A foot injury left her undercooked in Melbourne, where she lost in the third round to Barbora Strycova. Against Svitolina she hit 68 unforced errors in two sets.

“I’m not really finding my game, so I think I have to rest a little bit and concentrate again and work hard and eventually come back to the tournament to play again,” Muguruza said after the loss. “I think I’m not really ready to compete. I need to work a little bit more. My shots, my fitness. So we’ll see.”

She told reporters she’s still dealing with her foot injury and her participation in next week’s Qatar Total Open is up in the air. “If I’m not 100%, I don’t think it’s necessary,” she said. “So we’ll see these couple of days.”

– Caroline Garcia d. No.3 Carla Suárez Navarro 4-6. 6-4, 6-3: The young Frenchwoman has an uncanny ability to use a strong Fed Cup weekend as a springboard to confident play on tour. She was the hero in France’s win over Italy two weeks ago, scoring singles wins over Sara Errani and Camila Giorgi.

– Madison Brengle d. No.4 Petra Kvitova 0-6, 7-6(1), 6-3: At I highlighted in my last Notebook, Kvitova is at a crossroads right now. She drops to 1-5 this season, with that sole win coming against No. 143 Luksika Kumkhum in the first round of the Australian Open, and announced a surprising split with long-time coach David Kotyza. The high-flying conditions in Dubai have not been easy for the Czech. Setting aside a title run in 2013, she has not made it past the second round and lost in the opening round at four of five appearances.

Coco Vandeweghe

CoCo Vandeweghe d. No.6 Karolina Pliskova 7-6(5), 6-1: The two split their two prior meetings, so it’s not like this result was out of the blue for Vandeweghe. But it’s been difficult to get a read on Pliskova’s form in 2016. She had a fantastic Fed Cup run two weeks ago, scoring a three-set win over Halep. In Sydney she earned two good wins over Ivanovic and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. But she has yet to win more than two matches at a tour event.

– Julia Goerges d. No.8 Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-0, 6-1: The erratic nature of her game persists — we’re talking about Goerges here — but the German has been very good this season. Kuznetsova had little chance against her in the first round, with Goerges blasting 28 winners and 15 unforced errors.

Projected Rankings: The big news on Monday: Roberta Vinci will finally make her Top 10 debut. Despite losing in the first round she’ll move up three spots after Suarez Navarro, Lucie Safarova, and Venus Williams drop.

Next week’s projected rankings:

1. Serena
2. Kerber
3. Radwanska (+1)
4. Halep (-1)
5. Muguruza
6. Sharapova
7. Bencic (+2, career-high)
8. Kvitova
9. Pennetta (-2)
10. Vinci (+3, Top 10 debut)
11. Suarez Navarro
12. Safarova (-2)
13. Venus (-1)
14. Azarenka (or Ivanovic wins the title)
15. Bacsinszky (or Azarenka if Ivanovic wins the title)

All photos courtesy of Getty Images.

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Cirstea Clears Into Rio Quarterfinal

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil – 2009 French Open quarterfinalist Sorana Cirstea looked primed to crack the Top 20 in 2013 following a run to the final of the Rogers Cup, but a shoulder injury stunted her progress for the last 18 months – causing her to fall out of the Top 240 late last fall. Now fit and healthy, the Romanian roared into the quarterfinals of the Rio Open with a 7-5, 7-6(3) upset win over No.5 seed Polona Hercog.

“It has been a year and half that I was struggling with the shoulder,” Cirstea said after the match. “It was a frustrating time. But I’m very happy it’s over. I changed my team, a Romanian one from back home. I’m trying to settle everything down. I was able to practice very hard in the off-season; I was healthy and that’s the most important thing for me.

“This injury was also a lesson; I’m enjoying my time on the court more, being pain-free and being able to play on a high level.”

Cirstea began the year by reaching back-to-back finals on the ITF Challenger level, but her two wins in Rio are her first in a WTA main draw since last summer in Bucharest; by beating Hercog, the wildcard reaches her first WTA quarterfinal since 2014 (Tianjin).

“Playing the final in Guaruja and winning Bertioga three weeks and two weeks ago was a plus for me. I think everyone knows last year I was injured in my shoulder, so at this moment I’m trying to play a lot of matches.

“I was very happy to play ten matches before coming here and I already have two this week, so I’m quite pleased with the way things are going.”

Armed with a new philosphy and more positive perspective, Cirstea could next play No.3 seed Danka Kovinic, who first has to face Sílvia Soler Espinosa in her second round match.

“First of all, I’m trying to stay healthy. That’s the biggest thing; I’m still doing my shoulder rehab, so that will be my main key for this year. I also want to play a lot of matches, get that confidence from winning some.

“I’m seeing things from a different perspective; I’m enjoying traveling more and playing and I’m just trying to focus on the practice and getting better every day, and not on the results because if I practice well, the results will come.

“The objective is to get back to the Top 100. That’s the plan, and I like to go step by step.”

Earlier in the day, former French Open champion Francesca Schiavone survived a tough three setter against Mariana Duque-Marino, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5, while resurgent American Shelby Rogers took out Veronica Cepede Royg, 7-5, 6-4. Cindy Burger won the battle of qualifiers by taking out Elitsa Kostova, 6-3, 6-0.

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Svitolina Topples No.2 Seed Muguruza

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

DUBAI, UAE – Another Dubai seed was sent packing in a day rife with upsets as Elina Svitolina notched one of the biggest wins of her career against No.2 Garbiñe Muguruza at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.

Muguruza, who had won the pair’s previous two encounters, came out of the gates looking dominant, imposing her powerful game against her No.21-ranked opponent. But as the first set progressed, Muguruza’s trusted groundstrokes began to misfire and Svitolina found her way into the match.

The Ukrainian emerged victorious after a tough opening set, but it wasn’t without a battle. Svitolina had several chances to close out the set – at 5-4 and again at 6-5 – but was broken each time, sending it into a tiebreak. After over an hour and 15 minutes – during which Muguruza hit 40 unforced errors and 17 winners to Svitolina’s 18 to six – Svitolina closed it out 7-6(3).

“It was really tough and as you can see for both of us it was really a battle,” Svitolina told Annabel Croft after the match. “I’m happy I could win that [first] set – because it was up and down, really a rollercoaster.” 

The final set was all Svitolina, who tamped down all of Muguruza’s attempts at a late comeback to clinch the match 7-6(3), 6-3.

“It was tough, and even more fighting against the conditions, too, I think,” Svitolina said. “I think I returned really well today and that was the key – I was seeing the ball really well and moving well, so this was the main thing I was focused on.”

Not only is the win Svitolina’s second career victory over a Top 5 player, it’s also an early sign that her new coaching partnership is paying off. Last week she announced that former No.1 Justine Henin had joined her coaching team.

Awaiting Svitolina in the quarterfinals is American CoCo Vandeweghe, who overcame Kristina Mladenovic 7-5, 3-6, 6-4.

More to come…

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Ivanovic Dethrones Halep In Dubai

  • Posted: Jan 01, 1970

DUBAI, UAE – Ana Ivanovic produced another terrific performance at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships to knock out top seed and defending champion Simona Halep.

Watch live action from Dubai & Rio de Janeiro this week on WTA Live powered by TennisTV!

In the previous round Ivanovic dropped a solitary game, and she was every bit as impressive against Halep, booking her place in the quarterfinals with a 7-6(2), 6-2 win.

“Honestly, I’m delighted,” Ivanovic said. “It was a great battle in the first set, and she’s such a great player and I really had to raise my game, which I think I did. It was not easy but I’m really thrilled to be through.”

Heavy rain meant the players did not get on court until after 8pm. When they did finally emerge, another interruption was soon forthcoming, as the ball kids hastily tried to towel down the still-damp baseline.

On the resumption, Halep started brightest, opening up a 5-3 lead. However, with the set at her mercy she tightened, netting a couple of routine groundstrokes to surrender her advantage.

With her tail now up, Ivanovic produced some sparkling tennis to take the tie-break before racing through the second set.

“I was a little but anxious because it was stop and go. I think we both wanted to continue playing but it was a little bit slippery. I needed to stay calm and I’m glad I managed to do that,” Ivanovic added when quizzed about the second interruption.

Barbora Strycova, a 2-6, 6-3, 6-1 winner over Julia Goerges earlier in the day, awaits in the quarterfinals, and Ivanovic expects another testing outing.

“She beat Julia, who is playing great, so it’s going to be a tough match,” Ivanovic added. “We’ve played a few times before, but I’m not really thinking about that at the moment.”

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