It’s a high bar to suggest that Jannik Sinner has unfinished business at the end of a season in which he earned his first two Grand Slams among seven titles and became the first Italian man to claim ATP Year-end No. 1 honours presented by PIF.
Yet one burning ambition remains to make the season feel truly complete. Twelve months on from an uncharacteristically flat performance against Novak Djokovic in the Nitto ATP Finals title match, Sinner is looking to win the season finale for the first time in front of his adoring fans, who walked out of the Inalpi Arena deflated.
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Much work is to be done Sunday to make the dream a reality, however, as the 23-year-old faces a fifth Lexus ATP Head2Head meeting (all on hard) with Taylor Fritz, who snapped the eight-match winning streak of two-time Nitto ATP Finals champion Alexander Zverev in a gripping semi-final Saturday to move to a career-high No. 4 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings.
Fritz, the first American to reach the final since James Blake in 2006, claimed the first of the pair’s meetings at Indian Wells in 2021, but Sinner has won the past three, including a straight-sets win in group play earlier this week, and in September’s US Open final.
<img alt=”Nitto ATP Finals preview data” style=”width:100%;” src=”/-/media/images/news/2024/11/16/21/57/tdi-turin-final-graphic.jpg” />
Graphic courtesy TDI
Sinner may feel that he will have a slight edge in baseline exchanges – despite Fritz holding his own in extended crosscourt backhand battles with Zverev in the semis – but the American could negate that if he has a big night on serve.
Key will be the number of first serves he puts into play. The 27-year-old American leads the tournament with a first-serve winning percentage of 83.6. But his second-serve winning percentage of 42.2 is lowest among the Elite Eight. [Sinner heads the list at this year’s tournament with 66.7 per cent.]
With Sinner also topping the charts with a 64 per cent winning ratio returning second serves, Fritz has a decision to make: Take something off the first serve and get more into play, or back himself to have an exceptional night on first serve. The approach – and execution – could be the key to the match.
In his 6-4, 6-4 loss to Sinner on Tuesday, Fritz won just 38 per cent of second-serve points while Sinner won 59 per cent. The Californian will be keen to not give Sinner too many looks at his second delivery on Sunday.
Players with 25 or less games lost en route to Nitto ATP Finals championship match
| Games Lost |
Player (year) |
| 16 |
Novak Djokovic (2014) |
| 19 |
John McEnroe (1978) |
| 24 |
Novak Djokovic (2018) |
| 24* |
Ivan Lendl (1981) |
| 25 |
Roger Federer (2010) |
| 25 |
Jannik Sinner (2024) |
*Played just three matches
After advancing to the final and contemplating a possible rematch with Sinner, Fritz said that he felt better about his defeat in group play this week than he did after his US Open lost to the Italian.
“The US Open felt like I was kind of just trying to keep myself in with my serve, stay alive, win points by hitting big shots or playing off of his errors. Kind of just like not repeatable, consistent ways to win points,” Fritz said.
“The match we played here…. I felt much more comfortable from the baseline. I had my chances in that match. I had chances to break him in both sets. He had an equal amount of chances, and he took his. He played the big points better than I did in the group stage match.”
Sinner, who won the Australian Open and US Open this year, will be desperate to avoid again seeing a vanquished round-robin opponent gain his revenge in the final. Last year, in one of the best matches of the season, Sinner toppled Djokovic in a third-set tie-break in group play, only to fall to the Serbian 6-3, 6-3 in the final.
Asked to look ahead to the final, Sinner said, “It’s a very similar position as I was in last year. Just I’ve grown in 12 months now as a player. Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day in any case. I’m happy again to be in this position. It’s a very special occasion.”
Fresh off his semi-final defeat to he Italian, Casper Ruud was asked to compare Sinner to seven-time Nitto ATP Finals champion Djokovic, the Norwegian replied: “Jannik hits a faster ball than Novak. He doesn’t let you breathe. With Novak you can play rallies. Not going to say easier to play Novak because he’s the best in the history. At least with Novak you can play more rallies and not be terrified of Novak ripping, like, a bomb down the line or cross-court or these things,” Ruud said.
Sunday’s title match begins at 6 p.m. CET/12 noon ET.
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Doubles Final Preview
Just as Sinner will look to cap his banner year with the Turin title, so too will year-end doubles No. 1 team Marcelo Arevalo and Mate Pavic, who meet Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz for the seventh time this season.
Salvadoran Arevalo and Croatian Pavic fell in straight sets when the teams met in group play this week, and trail the Germans 2-4 in their Lexus ATP Head2Head series.
Arevalo and Pavic had won just three matches against all opposition since falling to the Germans in the US Open semi-finals, but are now in position to punctuate their year with a fifth title of the season and first since Cincinnati in August.
“It means a lot. I think this was the goal at the beginning of the tournament and also ending the season in the best way possible,” Arevalo said of the title quest.
Having saved a match point in Saturday’s semi-final against Aussie duo Jordan Thompson and Max Purcell, Krawietz and Puetz have the chance to become the first all-German duo to win the Nitto ATP Finals doubles crown.
“We knew when we came here we could beat everyone,” Krawietz said. “Being No. 8, we were happy to qualify here and then just tried to see what we could do and it has worked out very well.”
The doubles final begins at 3 p.m. CET/9 a.m. ET.
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