Do players change first serve strategy when serving at 15/0 versus 0/15?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings from the 2022 season uncovers a wide variety of first serve strategies when ahead or behind on the scoreboard after only one point is played in the game. Players clearly factor in where they prefer to serve and where the opponent may be anticipating. Having a clever mix out wide, at the body, and down the T is all about staying a step ahead in the guessing game of first serve location.

But nobody flipped the switch more than Daniil Medvedev.

The 27-year-old former No. 1 is the hottest player on tour after winning Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai leading into Indian Wells this week. He is on a 14-match win streak and has won 19 of 21 matches to start the season. His different first serve strategy at 15/0 versus 0/15 provides an insight into how he goes about his business of holding serve.

Serving 15/0

According to the Infosys ATP Stats Serve Tracker, Medvedev led the current Top 10 going down the T with his first serve at 15/0. He hit 56 per cent there, which was just slightly higher than Holger Rune at 55 per cent. The players who went the least down the T at 15/0 were Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz, who only went there 36 per cent of the time.

Andrey Rublev was the most prolific going out wide at 15/0, with 54 per cent of first serves hitting that location. The other two players at or above 50 per cent out wide were Taylor Fritz (52%) and Novak Djokovic (50%).

What’s fascinating is that five of the Top 10 hit their first serve down the T more, while the other five targeted out wide more.

Current Top 10: First Serve Location at 15/0 (2022 Season)

Serving 0/15

Medvedev switched lanes at 0/15 and became the player that served wide the most – the exact opposite of what he did at 15/0, being the most prolific with T serves. Medvedev hit 64 per cent of first serves out wide at 0/15 while only hitting 41 per cent at 15/0. When Medvedev needed the point at 0/15, initially pulling the returner wide off the court with his first serve was his primary strategy.

Nadal was the only other player to serve more than 50 per cent out wide at 0/15, at 54 per cent. You can certainly understand that logic with Nadal being left-handed. While the split was even at 15/0 with five players going more wide and five players going T, eight of the 10 players preferred to go down the T at 0/15. The most prolific down the T was Stefanos Tsitsipas at 64 per cent. Players at 50 percent or above down the T were Felix Auger-Aliassime (55%), Andrey Rublev (55%), Djokovic (53%) and Fritz (50%).

Current Top 10: First Serve Location at 0/15 (2022 Season)

Summary

Overall, five players (Medvedev, Djokovic, Fritz, Rublev and Alcaraz) changed their primary first serve location between wide and T when serving at 15/0 versus 0/15. The five players that kept the same primary location were Rune (T), Ruud (T), Tsitsipas (T), Felix Auger-Aliassime (T), and Nadal (wide).

It’s fascinating to see the variety of serve locations at the two point scores based on preferred locations and the desire to hit it where the opponent does not think it is going to go. Medvedev will look to add to his 14-match win streak at Indian Wells starting this week. Winning the guessing game of serve location will once again be a part of his winning formula.

Four years ago, Dominic Thiem arrived at the BNP Paribas Open having endured a disastrous start to season. He left as a champion, defeating Roger Federer to capture his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells.

Another title run this fortnight might seem ambitious for the current world No. 102, but the former US Open champion certainly comes in hoping for a strong run in the desert to again snap him out of a funk.

“I came there playing wise in a really bad situation,” Thiem said on Wednesday. “[I was] not playing well and I was not expecting anything and then slowly somehow, I started to play better and better, winning matches. I got a little bit lucky. Gael Monfils had to retire in the quarters and then I happened to win the tournament. If people knew how I would have felt and played before Indian Wells they would be very surprised that I ended up winning.”

Thiem arrived in Indian Wells in 2019 struggling for form and fitness. The 29-year-old held a 3-4 record on the season, having suffered first-round exits in Doha and Rio de Janeiro and a second-round defeat at the Australian Open.

However, he quickly found his best level, not dropping a set in his first three matches before he received a walkover from Gael Monfils to reach the semi-finals.

“After Rio I decided to go early to Indian Wells, to prepare myself physically and with my tennis,” Thiem said. “It was a good decision because from being not fit at all and playing really bad in two weeks I was giving myself a great chance to play great tennis and fight all the match, because I was physically fit.”

With confidence restored, Thiem defeated Milos Raonic in a three-set battle to advance to his third Masters 1000 final, where he faced Federer.

“For me it was an unbelievable week and I was going into the final relaxed against Roger, who was the favourite and playing well back then,” said Thiem, who lost ATP Masters 1000 finals in Madrid in 2017 and 2018. “I wasn’t putting any pressure [on me] because before when I played the first Madrid final I was putting pressure on myself because I wanted to win this first [ATP Masters] 1000. It was different in Indian Wells. I was just enjoying those two weeks, enjoying my tennis and that is probably a reason why I ended up winning.”

A thrilling final saw Federer clinch the first set, before Thiem rallied to earn a 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory. It was a moment in his career he reflects fondly on.

“The first set there was exactly why Roger is so popular and why people love to watch Roger so much. He was toying with me,” Thiem said. “He was playing at his best level. He was doing whatever he wanted and when he is at this level, it is impossible to play him. I was just hoping he would have one weak game in the second set and he had it and I broke and then the match was kind of opening. I am also happy I witnessed this first set, it was an unbelievable experience to play against someone playing such good tennis.”

Thiem will play Adrian Mannarino in the first round on Thursday, aiming to earn just his second tour-level win of the season.

Andy Murray has shown his renowned fighting spirit throughout the early stages of this season. The 35-year-old has already won three matches after being one point away from defeat. Now he’s poised to display another big effort at the 2023 BNP Paribas Open.

Despite competing with a metal hip, Murray has continued his career at a high level including in Doha this past month, when the Scot reached the final (l. Medvedev) after saving five match points to defeat Jiri Lehecka in the final four. Now he’s looking to show his best tennis at the season’s first ATP Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells.

“I want to have deep runs in these events,” Murray said. “That hasn’t happened in a couple years. I do feel like I’m playing well enough to do that now. I feel like physically this is the best I’ve felt for a long time so if I do have to play three or four matches in a few days, I believe that I’m able to do that and still play at a high level.

“Even 18 months or two years ago, when that was happening, I didn’t feel like I was recovering as well. [My] body [might’ve] been a bit sore and a bit tired, but I’ve worked really hard to get back to this point and I trust that I’m ready to have a good run at some stage.”

This year will be Murray’s 15th trip to the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, where his best result is a runner-up finish in 2009 (l. Nadal). The World No. 55 may have slightly different expectations at this stage of his career, but he’s still soaking in every opportunity he gets.

“I’ve always enjoyed coming back here,” Murray said. “At this stage of my career, you want to make the most of every chance you get to play in these sorts of events. You never know when it will be the last time. Definitely try to take it all in.”

Murray will meet Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the opening round on Thursday. The Argentine reached his first tour-level final at last week’s 250 event in Santiago (l. Jarry). The winner of Murray and Etcheverry will face 15th seed Pablo Carreno Busta in the second round.

Despite Murray’s potential round of 32 clash against Daniel Evans or Jack Draper, the Glasgow native isn’t going to get caught looking ahead to a first-time meeting against his countrymen.

“There’s a lot of Brits in my section of the draw but I’d have to win two tough matches to get there,” Murray said. “Let’s see what happens.”

Seven months ago Gael Monfils retired during his third-round match in Montreal against Jack Draper because of a foot injury. The Frenchman “thought it was all good”. However, he had suffered a plantar fascia rupture, and has not competed since.

The 36-year-old has been all smiles in the California desert, where he is ready to make his comeback Wednesday evening at the BNP Paribas Open against Australian Jordan Thompson.

“I feel great,” Monfils told ATPTour.com. “It’s been a couple months now I’m away. At the same time, I have a couple weeks without my little princess. It’s the first time, it’s the first feeling like that. It’s a mixed feeling, but in a positive way.”

Monfils’ “little princess” is his daughter, Skaï, who was born in October. This is Monfils’ first tournament since he and his wife, WTA star Elina Svitolina, welcomed their daughter to the world.

“I was with her since day one and now to get back on the road, it’s a different experience for me. I’ve been great. I’ve been blessed,” Monfils said. “So far she’s healthy and myself too, [I have] gotten back in shape and healthy. I have only positive vibes coming here.”

^{Photo Credit: Peter Staples/ATP Tour}
While Monfils did not want to be injured, the time off worked out well in terms of when he was hurt. It allowed him to experience the most special moment of his life.

“Perfect timing. I say always I try to see the positive in the negative and that was almost the best timing. I could be with my wife at the end of her pregnancy and support her, because it’s never easy the last days and everything,” Monfils said. “And then of course at the beginning as a parent, taking care of the little one as a team. It was great timing for me and also very important. At the end, that’s what matters. That’s life, that’s real life. To be a team there for our baby was great for me.”

It is safe to say Skaï quickly changed the Monfils family’s world. The Frenchman enjoys every moment with her.

“The happiness, it’s crazy. The happiness, the love,” Monfils said. “I can be a little bit tired or unhappy with what I’m doing because I want to be perfect. But as soon as I see my daughter, everything vanishes. It’s a great feeling.”

Monfils has also been working hard to prepare for his return to action. Over the past two months he has improved his fitness and slowly increased the amount of time he has spent on court. He started at once or twice per week before increasing to a full week of tennis along with his physical training. Monfils’ coach did not feel he was ready for the recent European indoor swing, so he fully prepared for an Indian Wells comeback.

“It’s been a long time. I won’t lie, I missed being on the Tour playing, competing, challenging myself. Now I just have the feeling [of love with the fans]. Actually Indian Wells is great because you have fans very close on the practice court. You can feel the energy,” Monfils said. “That definitely was [exciting] for me the few days I came here. I felt great and I felt lucky and blessed that I could actually get back in shape to experience that again.”

The former Top 10 star has also hit at home with his wife, who is also working her way back.

“She’s right there. She’s obviously very motivated to come back. It was actually crazy because she just gave birth and obviously she was super happy, but she really wants to get back very quickly in good shape,” Monfils said. “She wanted to feel that she can play again. She was worried because she hadn’t played for a long time. She picked up the racquet quite good. It was great.

“Now she’s practising, she’s loving it. She’s starting to move a little bit more because at the beginning she couldn’t move so much. But now it’s better and I think she has some goals, so I think she will soon say what she wants to do and when she wants to come back.”

Monfils has goals of his own, one of which is to improve his Pepperstone ATP Ranking enough to qualify for the 2024 Paris Olympics. He also wants to find his top level to make Skaï proud.

It has been adjustment for Monfils to be away from home, with plenty of FaceTimes helping make up for his distance from family. But the Frenchman hopes his next FaceTime with Skaï will be a special one following his first victory as a father.

“It’s funny because it was the first time [away]. It’s been five days exactly. Now she started to recognise me a little bit,” Monfils said, cracking a laugh. “It’s quite special, so I hope I will have a win under my belt and have the first FaceTime with her.”

Two months after the inaugural United Cup, the mixed-gender team event won by the United States in January, the ATP Tour and Hologic WTA Tour again joined forces on the court Tuesday night in Indian Wells. On the eve of main-draw play at the BNP Paribas Open, stars from both circuits thrilled the desert crowd in the third annual Eisenhower Cup, a mixed doubles exhibition that doubles as a fundraiser for local charities.

The one-night tournament was won by Taylor Fritz and Aryna Sabalenka, who defeated the Polish pairing of Hubert Hurkacz and Iga Swiatek 10-8 in the final. Fritz, who hit an ace with a trick serve in the semi-finals, fired a service winner on championship point.

“It’s awesome just to have the chance to come out here and play in front of the crowd before [the tournament] even gets going,” said Fritz, the defending Indian Wells men’s singles champ. “The crowd here tonight is amazing. It’s one of the many reasons I love coming here. It’s one of my favourite events, it being such a home tournament for me.”

Fritz, who helped lead Team USA to United Cup glory in January, also won the Delray Beach singles title in February and broke into the Top 5 of the Pepperstone ATP Rankings for the first time last week. He will open his Indian Wells title defence against Ben Shelton or Fabio Fognini.

“We said before the night started that we really wanted to come out and win,” added the Netflix Break Point star. “We played really well against a lot of really good teams.”

NO WAY!!! 😱@Taylorfritz97 pulls out the reverse serve! #TieBreakTens pic.twitter.com/qoxDxmBUBK

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 8, 2023

Sabalenka, the reigning Australian Open singles champion, is no stranger to doubles success. The former doubles World No. 1 is a two-time Grand Slam winner in the discipline with partner Elise Mertens, having lifted the trophies at the 2019 US Open and 2021 Aussie Open. The pair also won the 2019 Indian Wells crown.

“I feel good,” said Sabalenka, who will face Alize Cornet or Evgeniya Rodina in her opening singles match. “I’m really happy to be here and really looking forward to the first match.”

Photo credit: Julian Finney/Getty Images

Also competing in Tuesday night’s exhibition event were: Paula Badosa and Cameron Norrie, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Leylah Fernandez, Ons Jabeur and Casper Ruud, Tommy Paul and Jessica Pegula, Maria Sakkari and Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Belinda Bencic and Stan Wawrinka.

In addition, Fritz and Paul are set to team up in the Indian Wells men’s doubles event, with Auger-Aliassime (with Denis Shapovalov), Ruud (with Dominic Thiem) and Wawrinka (with Frances Tiafoe) also competing.

The women’s doubles draw has not yet been released.

Taylor Fritz and Maria Sakkari, trailed by a black-clad Netflix camera crew, were greeted by warm applause when they ascended to the outdoor stage on the grounds of the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on Tuesday. The stars of Break Point Episode 3 arrived just hours after Netflix announced there would be a second season.

Those ubiquitous workers are all over the grounds at ‘Tennis Paradise’, capturing behind-the-scenes moments for episodes that will be seen next year.

“We’re really excited,” Paul Martin, executive producer of Box to Box Films, told the crowd earlier. “Excited to get to play in this space for another year. Hopefully, it continues for 10 more seasons.”

In this season’s Indian Wells episode — titled “California Dreaming” shot at the BNP Paribas Open a year ago — we learned that Sakkari may well be the most caffeinated player on the Hologic WTA Tour (six espressos in a single day!) and, according to Ajla Tomljanovic, super-intense on court but a “teddy bear” off it.

Sakkari, who advanced to the final here before falling to Iga Swiatek, said the series seems to be reaching the casual tennis fan.

“I don’t think we’re like movie stars right now,” Sakkari said, drawing laughter. “It’s just our personalities being exposed — in a good way. I’ve had people coming up to me and saying I watched you on Break Point, but not playing tennis, which I think was very good for the show. I was happy because that whole thing really helps tennis.”

Fritz, whose dramatic drive to the title in his local tournament — he beat Rafael Nadal in the final on a seriously compromised ankle — was the episode’s dominant thread, agreed.

“It’s good to see that because those are people who aren’t tennis fans,” Fritz said. “In the U.S. especially, that’s what we need. So whenever there’s someone saying, `Oh, I saw you on Break Point,’ I see that as someone maybe potentially who might watch tennis as a fan. What it’s been doing for the sport is great. Hopefully that continues.”

The first five episodes of the series were released in advance of the Australian Open, and episodes 6-10, covering the second half of the 2022 season, will drop in June. The early returns were encouraging. Break Point reached the Top 10 in 28 countries, engaging an audience of more than 15 million, with Australia and the United Kingdom at the top of the list.

While it didn’t reach the Top 10 in the United States, given its large population, it generated the largest number of new fans. The featured players experienced a significant bounce in their social media numbers.

“Tennis, being on tour, there’s a really great story to be told,” said Fritz, whose No. 5 Pepperstone ATP Ranking is the highest for an American man since Andy Roddick in 2009. “Because what we do is pretty crazy and a lot of people don’t really know the behind-the-scenes, the traveling, the competing and everything that goes on. I’m glad the reception’s been great.”

Martin, who oversees the series with co-producer James Gay-Rees, revealed how the series came into being. Describing himself as a fan but not necessarily an aficionado, Martin had spent a year talking with Andre Agassi about making a film.

“Just the picture that Andre painted in the tennis bubble, the extremes of highs and lows was just kind of mesmerising, really exciting,” Martin said. “When that project fell away, we always felt there was a way to dive into tennis the way that Andre had talked about we would love the opportunity.”

It came when the Drive to Survive series captured a huge worldwide audience, particularly in America. When Netflix asked Box to Box what other sports might lend themselves to “reality” television, tennis was one of the first answers.

The tale of the injured Fritz’s title run, playing against the wishes of his father and coach, was the kind of narrative that Martin hopes for.

“People have a version of tennis where they see two players walk out on court and they think that they’re 100 per cent fit, at the top of their game,” he said. “They don’t see the physical pain. They might have had an argument with their boyfriend or girlfriend before they walked out on court.

“They don’t see how much baggage these players sometimes take out to the court. That was one of the most extreme examples of it.”

Sakkari drew a nice hand when she told the crowd that Indian Wells is her favorite tournament of the year — and not just because she reached the final a year ago. The public response to her star turn on Netflix has humbled her.

“I never thought that coming from a very small country I would get to the ranking level where I was last year,” she said. “Seeing myself on TV is nothing that I’m used to. It was kind of weird in a way, but also nice to see the different players in the episode.

“It’s the reward for the work I’ve done all these years.”

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