Who has the upper hand on hard courts in 2022?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of hard court tournaments leading into the US Open identifies Carlos Alcaraz as the peak performer, winning a tour-leading 54.12 per cent of points played on the surface. The data set includes players who have competed in a minimum of five hard-court matches so far this year.

The leading five players in the category are:

2022 Hard Courts Percentage Points Won
1. Carlos Alcaraz = 54.12% (1583/2925)
2. Daniil Medvedev = 54.04% (2685/4969)
3. Rafael Nadal = 53.85% (2042/3792)
4. Novak Djokovic = 53.40% (204/382)
5. Alexander Zverev = 53.36% (1301/2438)

Alcaraz is 14-4 on hard courts in 2022, including winning his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Miami. Alcaraz impressively defeated three Top 10 players (No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas, No. 8 Casper Ruud, No. 10 Hubert Hurkacz) to take the title while only dropping one set for the entire tournament (to Miomir Kecmanovic)

That Masters 1000 victory came on the heels of reaching the semi-finals of the ATP Masters 1000 in Indian Wells, where he extended Rafael Nadal to three sets in the semi-finals. When you aggregate Alcaraz’s data from both of these events, you clearly see that his aggressive game style is what creates his competitive advantage.

2022 Indian Wells & Miami Combined (11 matches)

Rally Winners
• Alcaraz = 265
• Opponents = 121

This jaw-dropping stat shows how the Spanish teenager can take the racquet out of his opponent’s hands and dictate the flow of play from the back of the court. Alcaraz hit more than double (265-121) the number of winners than his opponents. The five most lopsided totals were:

• Alcaraz 21/Bautista Agut 1
• Alcaraz 18/Monfils 5
• Alcaraz 41/Kecmanovic 18
• Alcaraz 26/Tsitsipas 12
• Alcaraz 36/Nadal 18

What also stops you in your tracks is that Alcaraz also committed fewer rally unforced errors than his opponents.

Rally Unforced Errors
• Alcaraz = 218
• Opponents = 234

Alcaraz was always looking to strike more forehands over backhands from the back of the court.

Rally Forehands/Backhands — Alcaraz
• Forehands 58% (1391)
• Backhands 42% (1009)

Alcaraz’s explosive hard-court prowess will next be on show at the US Open. The Spaniard has recently surged to a career-high of No. 4 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings and has a chance to take the No. 1 spot. If he does take over as No. 1, then he will be the youngest No. 1 in Pepperstone ATP Rankings history.

Andy Murray, Cameron Norrie and Daniel Evans have been standouts for Great Britain for years. They each have thrilled fans with different game styles and personalities.

One thing they all share is a belief that the future of #NextGenATP Briton Jack Draper is bright.

Draper, who is fifth in the Pepperstone ATP Race To Turin, has proven a favourite to earn a spot at this year’s Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals. Murray, Norrie and Evans are not surprised.

“He’s always had lots of potential,” Murray told ATPTour.com. “A lot of ability.”

This time last year. Draper’s Pepperstone ATP Ranking was not high enough to enter US Open qualifying. Now the 20-year-old lefty is on the verge of the Top 50 and a dark horse at Flushing Meadows.

Part of the reason why Draper has exploded onto the scene this year is because he has consistently been on the court. Past injuries, including one to his ankle, and the Covid-19 pandemic had prevented him from taking advantage of good performances. But in 2021, he has earned 11 of his 13 tour-level victories and is primed for more.

“For 20, he’s actually quite a young 20-year-old as well,” Murray said. “[There were] six months of the pandemic when he didn’t get to compete… Although he’s 20, he’s not competed loads in the past few years, but he’s a top player.”

It has been clear that Draper is not shy of the big stages. While Draper has lifted four ATP Challenger Tour titles this season, he has also earned wins in four of his seven matches against Top 20 opponents. According to Evans, that does not solely have to do with his game.

“I think he’s obviously very grounded, he’s had good people around him for quite a long time. I know his current coach, [James Trotman], is a very ‘never too high, never too low’ sort of guy and that obviously really helps in big moments,” Evans said. “He obviously has a massive game and it’s no real surprise that once he’s put it all together, he’s been very effective on the Tour.”

Norrie remembers practising with Draper once when the #NextGenATP star was 17. At the time Norre said, “he was a little bit all over the place”. But over the past few years he has watched the rising star evolve.

“I knew he had a big game and he was a big kid already, and I immediately got on well with him and could see how competitive he was. For me, what he’s done is not a surprise at all and I’m just glad he’s really professional now, he’s taking care of everything and he’s winning some big matches and playing his best tennis in those big matches,” Norrie said. “[I] have a lot of respect for the guy, I really love his game and I’ve practised a lot with him in London. He knows my game pretty well and we’re also pretty good friends… It’s really great seeing him do well, especially in big tournaments.”

^{Photo Credit: Paul Harding/Getty Images for LTA}
Draper’s biggest run yet came in Montreal, where he advanced to his first ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final. The lefty upset Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, won the first set against Gael Monfils before the Frenchman retired due to injury, and challenged eventual champion Pablo Carreno Busta in a tight two-setter.

“I think Montreal showed it didn’t bother him which tournament it was, if it was a big one or a smaller one,” Evans said. “He really just took to it.”

Murray added: “[He] got the opportunity against Tsitsipas and played a good match. I thought the match with Carreno Busta as well the level of tennis was very high.

“I think he enjoys those moments and it’s always a little bit easier in some ways when you’re younger because it’s fresh, a new experience and not as much pressure on you. But just looking at his game, when he plays well [you see] how he matches up against the best players. I think there are some really good, positive signs for the future.”

Players are often associated with certain traits. For example, Rafael Nadal is known for his incomparable fighting spirit, Juan Martin del Potro his thunderous forehand and so on. According to Murray. Draper has the whole package.

“He doesn’t have huge weaknesses in his game. For a lot of guys his size that are lefties that I’ve played against in the past, maybe [they] don’t return that well. But he is a good returner for a big guy,” Murray said. “The two most important fundamental shots in the game he does well. He serves well, returns well.

“For a big guy, he moves pretty well also and then from the back of the court, his backhand is a very solid shot. [He] rarely makes unforced errors on that side and then on the forehand, he plays with a lot of spin. When he’s got time he can finish points. He’s got a big forehand when he’s got time to load up on it and he’s a smart player as well and a good competitor. He’s got lots of things going for him.”

Draper’s journey is just beginning, with the next step his first-round match against Finland’s Emil Ruusuvuori. It is another opportunity for the Briton to continue his growth. As much as Draper has improved this season, Murray said there are always things to refine.

“At that stage, I don’t think there is just one thing [he has to focus on]. I think it’s the total package. You should be spending time working on the physical side, you should be spending time working on improving your game,” Murray said. “[You need to work on] the mental side and dealing with the distractions and maybe a little bit more pressure that will come in the next period as well and just learning how to deal with those things. It’s important.

“For me there isn’t one that’s more important than the other at that age. It’s just all about developing and progressing all parts of your game, becoming more professional, eating better, sleeping better, training better. All those things.”

Dominic Thiem calls the US Open one of his favourite tournaments and New York one of his favourite cities. This year, the Austrian is as excited as ever to arrive at Flushing Meadows.

After missing the 2021 edition due to a wrist injury, Thiem will return to the venue as US Open champion for the first time.

“It doesn’t get old and I think it will never get old [saying that]. It will always be special and it will always be there, which makes me very happy,” Thiem told ATPTour.com. “But at the same time, sports is a very fast business and everybody is hungry every day. I have zero advantage because of being a champion.”

Two years ago, Thiem was soaring higher than ever. In his fourth major final, the Austrian battled past Alexander Zverev 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(6) to lift the trophy in New York. He had also defeated Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the semi-finals and was the No. 3 player in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. Later that season, Thiem defeated Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal en route to the championship match of the Nitto ATP Finals.

^{Photo Credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images}
But the past 14 months have been difficult for the 17-time tour-level titlist. Last June, Thiem suffered a wrist injury while competing in Mallorca that kept him away from competition for nine months.

Fans are used to Thiem dominating opponents using his physical baseline game, which features relentless attacking with heavy groundstrokes leading the way. But in 2022, it has taken time for Thiem to return to his best. Although he has shown flashes of brilliance, the 28-year-old’s deepest run was to the semi-finals in Gstaad.

It is a moment that requires perseverance, a quality Thiem has shown plenty of in the past. His play at Flushing Meadows has proven it. All it takes is looking at his time in New York two years ago.

Thiem lost to Filip Krajinovic 2-6, 1-6 in his opening match at the Western & Southern Open, which that year was held at Flushing Meadows.

“The score was devastating, 2 and 1,” Thiem remembered. “It was difficult because normally you lose, you go to another place. You make the reset, but there everything stayed the same. I remember I took one or two days off. Obviously there was a bubble so I just stayed in the hotel, I watched some TV, trying to find some stuff to distract me.”

Thiem confidently shook off the disappointment of that defeat and reached the US Open final with the loss of just one set. He woke up on 13 September 2020 like it was any other day. After falling short in his first three Grand Slam finals, Thiem had another chance to earn major glory.

“I remember [that morning] quite well, actually. I just remember it was a normal morning. The warmup was very good with [coach] Nico Massu. I had a great feeling. It was not that different to the other three Grand Slam finals that I played,” Thiem said. “The bad things started when the match started. I was all of a sudden unbelievably nervous, unbelievably tight.”

A great opportunity to achieve a dream suddenly was slipping away. Zverev surged to a 6-2, 6-4 lead inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, where there were no fans because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The last thing Thiem was going to do against Zverev was stop giving it his all, no matter the deficit he faced.

“I tried to relax myself and say to myself, ‘If I don’t relax now, if I don’t release now, I’m going to lose anyway’,” Thiem recalled. “That’s kind of the last chance I have to release the hand brake, to play more aggressive, to play more fast.”

Thiem had to win three consecutive sets to claim the biggest victory of his career. He managed to secure a break in the third and hold onto it, taking the first step of his comeback. His coach, Nicolas Massu, remembers seeing the momentum of the match turn at that moment.

“I think that changed everything for him. Maybe when you are two sets to zero down, you look at the match and start to think that you are far,” Massu said. “When you make the break and are almost close to winning the third set and are two-sets-to-one down, you don’t see things so, so far away. If you win the third set, you have a chance.”

Thiem fully seized the momentum and stormed through the fourth set. But the roller coaster was nowhere close to coming to a stop, despite it being the final set. Zverev served for the championship at 5-3, before Thiem recovered and served for the trophy at 6-5. Neither man converted. Massu was out of his seat after almost every point.

“The [players] had the feeling that, ‘Maybe this is my moment to win a Grand Slam.’ That’s also why I think it was a tight match from both sides. Dominic was more tight at the beginning and Sascha was playing better at the beginning,” Massu recalled. “Then Dominic started to play better and Sascha started to get tight when he was close to winning. But at the end, the only difference in the match was two points. Sometimes these two points go to your side and sometimes they go to the other side.

“The good thing for us and for Dominic was that this time, it was for him.”

Despite letting slip a 6/4 lead in the final-set tie-break, Thiem won the battle of wills and fell to his back in disbelief after Zverev missed a final backhand wide.

It was an example of what is possible if you do not give up. That is why, despite the past 14 months being difficult, Thiem is excited to continue pushing to not just return to his best, but to strive for even better.

“The lesson I learned was that there is always light at the end of the tunnel, even when you don’t think there is, even when things are very, very tough, when there’s a lot of pain or when it seems like there is no way forward,” Thiem said. “I had this feeling quite a lot, especially in the beginning of the wrist injury. But somehow after a while, there is always a little step forward.

“To see those little positive things, it’s very important and it’s not only in tennis or sports, but all of life.”

Adrian Mannarino started his week by saving four match points in the first round of the Winston-Salem Open. After surviving three tie-breaks in his opening match, the Frenchman did not drop another set on his way to his second tour-level title.

With a 7-6(1), 6-4 victory against Laslo Djere in Saturday’s final, the 34-year-old became the oldest champion in the tournament’s history, as well as its first French champion.

“I’m just happy I won the tournament, no matter who won before or who’s going to win after,” Mannarino said post-match. “It’s just something that I’ve [accomplished] for now and I’m really happy with that.”

Mannarino saved two break points to avoid going down a double break in the opening set before converting on his first break chance to level at 4-4. He then sprinted into the lead by winning the final six points of the tie-break.

“I had some trouble today to see the ball,” the Frenchman said of his slow start. “The conditions last night, playing at night with the cold weather was so different than playing today with hot weather and clear blue skies.

“So it took me a little bit of time to get used to it but I was able to keep my nerve and just be focussed on what I had to do. I was able to break back at 4-3 and then I kept being consistent until the end. I knew that Laslo had a really exhausting week and probably if we were going to have a tough battle I would get the win because physically I was a little bit fresher.”

MANNARINO 🔥@AdrianMannarino is the #WSOpen 2022 Champion after defeating Djere 7-6, 6-4 🙌@WSOpen pic.twitter.com/g5j4mYdgyY

— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 27, 2022

Set two opened with four love holds before the Frenchman made the crucial breakthrough in the set’s seventh game. After missing out on a match point on return at 5-3, he clinched victory with his fourth love hold of the one-hour, 44-minute match.

Finishing with 20 winners, Mannarino was dominant behind first serve, winning 83 per cent (30/36) of points on his first delivery. After growing into the match, he commanded the late stages against Djere, who played three sets in each of his first four matches before a gruelling two-set semi-final victory against Swiss qualifier Marc-Andrea Huesler.

The Frenchman dropped serve just four times in six matches on the week, and twice in his last five matches.

For some added history, Mannarino is also the second left-hander to win the Winston-Salem title after Jurgen Melzer in 2013. Melzer was the event’s oldest champion at 32 until Mannarino’s victory.

The Frenchman is the fourth lefty to win a tour-level title this season (Rafael Nadal, 4; Cameron Norrie, 2; Albert Ramos-Vinolas, 1). With his title run, he has moved up 20 places this week to No. 45 in the Pepperstone ATP Live Rankings.

Djere was competing in his first hard-court final and posted a 5-2 record in tie-breaks this week after a previous mark of 1-18 on the season.

New partner, similar success for Matthew Ebden and Jamie Murray. Teaming for the first time this week in Winston-Salem, the pair claimed the title with a 6-4, 6-2 win against Hugo Nys and Jan Zielinski on Saturday.

The third seeds saved all five break points against them in the final as they finished the week with just one set lost. The title is Ebden’s seventh and Murray’s 27th at tour-level.

“When we spoke last week about playing here, I thought immediately it works perfectly,” Ebden said post-match. “Jamie plays on the deuce court, I’ve been playing on the ad [side]. We’ve known each other a long time. First time [playing] together but we’ve known each other, we’ve seen each other around many times.

“You never really know how its going to go, but I like to think we both know what we’re doing out there and we’re lucky we executed a lot of good points and played a lot of big points well. That was the key to the week.”

Ebden and Murray boast three Grand Slam titles between them, with Ebden victorious at Wimbledon this year with Max Purcell and Murray at the 2016 Australian Open and US Open with Bruno Soares.

Thanks to their past success, both men are very familiar with the effort it takes to win a title on the ATP Tour.

“Really happy to win a title,” Murray said. “I think the level is so high on the Tour these days, it’s not easy to win.

“For me it was like, come here, play with Matt, a great partner, enjoy the week, see what we get out of it. We managed to go all the way and got a trophy over our heads.”

While they only dropped one set on the week, the pair saved at least two break points in every match, including seven in the opening round. Both men credited strong serving under pressure for their title run.

“Even the set we did lose, I said to Jamie it wasn’t a bad set,” Ebden noted, reflecting on their quarter-final win against Americans Robert Galloway and Alex Lawson. “We had a break point we didn’t get, they had one they did get. That was it, that’s how it goes.

“To play eight or nine really good sets going into the US Open, it couldn’t be better.”

Alex Molcan enters the 2022 US Open as a Top 40 player, a vast improvement from this time last year, when he advanced through the qualifying as the World No. 138 before reaching the third round at Flushing Meadows (l. Schwartzman). He has not forgotten his roots.

In 2021, the Slovakian spent much of his time on the ATP Challenger Tour and attempting to qualify for Tour-level events. This season, Molcan has made it onto the ATP Tour and has found success that he eagerly awaited.

“I’m not surprised that I’m there (Top 40). I always knew if I can play well and stay healthy, I can be Top 50.” Molcan said. “I wasn’t surprised but I don’t think it came crazy fast. I was trying for many, many years to be Top 100 but I didn’t do it. Last year, it was surprising when I went from 300 to 90 at the end of season.”

The 24-year-old holds two Challenger Tour titles, Liberec and Helsinki, which he won in 2021. After spending several years on the Challenger Tour, Molcan has many fond memories of the annual progress he achieved.

“When I won my first Challenger, that was great. Before that, I was happy when I played some semi-finals, I was like ‘Woah, 30 points!’ and I was so happy. Three years ago, it was a great memory when I played quarter-finals. There are a lot of good memories, every year is some other memory.”

During the clay-court season this spring, Molcan reached a career-high No. 38 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings. Amidst his rise on the ATP Tour, the Presov native has found the margins are slim between the Challenger-level and the ATP Tour.

“The level at Challengers is not easier than the ATP Tour. They play the same speed of serve, same speed of forehand, of course there are some factors why the guys in the Top 20 or 30 are better, but the level is similar.”

In May, Molcan claimed his first win over a Top 10 player when he saved a match point en route to defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round of the ATP 250 event in Marrakech. The lefty then reached his second Tour-level final before falling short to David Goffin. The following month, the World No. 40 reached another final in Lyon (l. Norrie). Molcan’s first ATP Tour final came in 2021 in Belgrade, where he lost to then World No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

Now, Slovakia’s top-ranked player looks to improve upon his three finals to collect his first ATP Tour title.

“I’m happy with the way I’m playing. I still want to play better. I have very good coaches, every member in my team is very professional in what they do. We understand each other and we believe in each other. I played two finals (this year) at ATP 250s, could be better, because in some other tournaments I lost first or second round. I’m happy anyway with my results and still trying to improve my game.”

Djokovic’s former coach, Marian Vajda, has been working with Molcan since May. Vajda, a fellow Slovakian, spent 15 years with Djokovic. During Molcan’s first tournament teaming with the 2018 ATP Coach of the Year, he felt butterflies in his stomach as the highly rated coach looked on.

“Our first tournament together was Rome. I remember I lost in qualies first round and I was so shaky and nervous because he was there. After that, I just let it be and wasn’t thinking about that at all and since then everything is good. He has a lot of experience, he’s telling me a lot of things.”

Molcan, 26-20 this season, will face Brazil’s Thiago Monteiro in the first round of the US Open on Monday. Monteiro won their only meeting at the 2018 Szczecin Challenger.

Did You Know? Four of the 16 qualifiers from the 2021 US Open are now ranked within the Top 40 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings: Botic van de Zandschulp, Holger Rune, Maxime Cressy, and Molcan.

Sebastian Baez met his longtime coach, Sebastian Gutierrez, for the first time when he was 15. He was in Brazil for an ITF event, where Gutierrez was coaching the Argentine players.

It did not take long for them to make a connection, but not on the court. Gutierrez wasted no time commenting on something that some coaches would not do for weeks, if not months.

“I drank Coca-Cola every day, every time. I ate all foods,” Baez recalled. “He looked at me and said, ‘Why do you drink Coca-Cola every time?’”

Baez was already one of the best juniors in Argentina. But being a good junior and a top professional are worlds apart. That first meeting with Gutierrez set Baez on a path to where he is now, the No. 37 player in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings.

“I said, ‘I really like Coca-Cola! It’s the best thing!’ He said, ‘No, you have to drink water.’ I said, ‘Okay’. It was a difficult change in that moment, but I think that was the first thing he told me,” Baez said. “The other coaches from my country just told me how I have to hit the ball and everything. He was focussed outside the court and that is what makes all the difference.”

Some juniors would be fussed if their coach bothered them about enjoying a soft drink at such a young age. Baez realised in that moment Gutierrez was the coach for him. Gutierrez explained that it is important for upcoming players to have good habits, both on and off the court.

“Seba drank a lot of Coca-Cola [and] he liked to eat ice cream for dessert every day,” Gutierrez said. “When they are children, sometimes you have to try to make them understand that in the road, having those good habits will for sure make a difference in the future.”

From then on, Baez shifted his mindset. Now, the Argentine focusses on controlling everything he can in order to get the most out of his game, whether that is nutrition or fitness off the court or maximising his practice time.

“I think one of the keys was to be focussed to be better. Just to focus on me. To say, ‘Okay I have to do these things, I have to do them perfectly’,” Baez said. “If I do that good, okay. But you can do that better than you think. That started me [wanting] to do better every day. That was the big key to be here and of course to be on the top I need to do perfect compared to [what I do] today.”

By the end of Baez’s junior career, he was the junior World No. 1. But it was not easy for him to make the jump to the next level.

“I started to play Futures and everything [as a] professional, from the start to the Futures, it was too different to the juniors. I think that was the worst thing, to change the age and the circuit,” Baez said. “In professionals, you have to start at zero. At the beginning, it was hard.”

Some of it had to do with the level of players he was facing. But it was also the realisation of what it takes to be a professional. Baez bought a stringing machine to save on the expenses of paying for someone to do the job for him.

“I had to learn to string a racquet and in the tournament, we would take the machine [too],” Baez said, before cracking a laugh. “But I didn’t string the racquet any more because my coach said, ‘Now we are in the tournament, I want you to have the racquets good so I will do them. You are terrible!’”

The Argentine cracked the Top 500 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings in October 2019, but five months later his progress came to a halt due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Instead of letting slip his momentum, Baez made even more of a focus on maximising his potential every day.

Ever since, he has been on the rise. Last year, Baez won six ATP Challenger Tour titles — tied for second-most in a season — and qualified for the Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals. According to Baez, his biggest breakthrough came this clay-court season, when he claimed his first ATP Tour title in Estoril.

“It was a big moment for me and I think I changed a little bit in my mind after that tournament,” Baez said. “I can be there. Of course I have to do better, to win a lot of tournaments to be on the top. But I think I can. Why not me?”

Watch Estoril Final Highlights:

The 5’7” Argentine has drawn comparisons to a countryman of the same height: Diego Schwartzman. Both men agree they are not that similar as tennis players, though.

“I think he is playing very, very aggressive. I’m different. I think he has a very good serve, a fast serve. So he’s improving a lot,” Schwartzman said. “It’s the first year for him playing these kind of tournaments, he’s doing so well. He’s improving. It’s important for our tennis. He’s playing so many different tournaments that he was not playing before, so obviously he is going to change some parts of his game in the future.

“I think we have similar things, but not enough to say we are similar. Maybe because of the size and how we [wear] our hat, we’re similar. But not enough to have a similar game. I think we are a little bit different and that’s a good thing, I think.”

Baez will try to show the world his game in a tough first-round test against third seed Carlos Alcaraz. It will be a rematch of their semi-final clash in Milan last year, which Gutierrez called “a beautiful experience”.

“I think it will be a different match. Seba already has more experience on Tour but at the same time it is a good opportunity to add another great match on his shoulders. Seba is also only 21 years old, he is very young and a match like this can give him a lot to be a better professional,” Gutierrez said. “One of the most positive things of this season is to capitalise on each of these moments, that he has been able to play all the Grand Slams or that he has played in big stadiums, against great rivals.

“Every day he tries to be a little better.”