In matches of fine margins, statistics can often shine a light where the naked eye fails to see. Tuesday night’s Roland Garros quarter-final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal promises to be such a contest, with the World No. 1 and the 13-time Roland Garros champion set for their 59th ATP Head2Head meeting.

ATPTour.com digs into the numbers to understand where the advantages may lie for each player, analysing data from the first four rounds in Roland Garros.

Serve

Every point begins with this crucial shot, so this preview will start there, too. The standout statistic here is Novak Djokovic’s 82 per cent save rate on break points. The Serbian has saved 14 of the 17 break points against him while Nadal has erased half of the 18 break chances against his serve.

Both men have been solid on serve this fortnight, but they have dominated in slightly different ways. Nadal is stronger on second serve, where he has won 63 per cent of his points to Djokovic’s 56 per cent. The Spaniard’s average second serve comes in at 154.6 km/h while Djokovic delivers at an average of 142.5 km/h.

Nadal has reaped the rewards of a more aggressive second delivery, while Djokovic has the edge on first serve, winning 77 per cent of those points to Nadal’s still-strong 73 per cent. Both men have averaged roughly 182 km/h on first serve, with the Serbian hitting 31 aces to Nadal’s seven.

Return

Nadal and Djokovic have both won 41 per cent of first-serve return points, but the World No. 1 holds the edge on second-serve return, where he has claimed 63 per cent of the points on offer, compared to Nadal’s 58 per cent.

Both men have converted break points at roughly the same rate: Nadal at 46 per cent (26/57) and Djokovic at 48 per cent (23/58).

Rallies & Net Approaches

In rallies short (0-4 shots), medium (5-8 shots) and long (8+ shots) in length, no significant edge stands out. Djokovic and Nadal have both enjoyed strong advantages in all three categories.

Against Felix Auger-Aliassime, Nadal lost the short rallies, 41-44. Djokovic edged the long rallies by just one point against both Alex Molcan (22-21) and Diego Schwartzman (23-22).

Looking at the winner count, both quarter-finalists are well over the 100 mark. But Djokovic has hit 134 winners on 395 points won (33.9 per cent) compared to Nadal’s 126 winners on 423 points won (27.8 per cent).

Despite Djokovic’s higher winner rate, his average rally length has been significantly longer than Nadal’s: 5.25 shots to 4.66 shots.

It’s also interesting to note that Djokovic has committed more unforced errors than forced (100 to 72), while Nadal’s number skew the opposite way with 97 unforced and 119 forced errors off his racquet.

When it comes to net play, both men have visited the forecourt more than 100 times, with Djokovic converting those points at a slightly higher clip than Nadal. The Serbian has won 80 of his 103 net points (78 per cent) to Nadal’s 75 of 106 (71 per cent).

Time On Court

After the pair’s four-hour and 10-minute semi-final showdown in the 2021 Roland Garros semi-finals, another long match could favour Djokovic. The Serbian has spent exactly two-and-a-half hours less on court than Nadal this fortnight, playing two fewer sets.

After battling for four hours and 21 minutes in his five-set win over Auger-Aliassime, Nadal has spent 10 hours and 43 minutes on court. Djokovic has been efficient in eight hours and 13 minutes of play.

ATP Head2Head History

While Djokovic holds a 30-28 advantage overall in this legendary rivalry, Nadal holds a decisive 19-8 record on clay and an even stronger 7-2 mark at Roland Garros.

– Stats courtesy of Roland Garros

The battle for No. 1 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings became clearer after Daniil Medvedev lost in the fourth round at Roland Garros on Monday against Marin Cilic.

Medvedev had a chance to control his own destiny in pursuit of reaching the top of the men’s tennis mountain for the second time. Now the 26-year-old must rely on the results of rivals Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev in Paris.

Current World No. 1 Djokovic or Zverev will hold the top spot on 6 June, the day after the clay-court major ends. All three men have a chance of taking World No. 1 on 13 June, when all previous Roland Garros points (from 2020-21) drop from the Pepperstone ATP Rankings.

If Djokovic defeats Rafael Nadal in the quarter-finals, he will maintain top spot on 6 June for at least a record-extending 373rd week. However, if he loses to the 13-time Roland Garros champion, that would open the door for Zverev.

With a Djokovic loss on Tuesday, Zverev would become the 28th No. 1 player in the history of the Pepperstone ATP Rankings on 6 June by winning his first major title in Paris.

Potential Pepperstone ATP Rankings Points (6 June) Based On RG Result

Both Djokovic and Zverev must lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires to claim the pinnacle on 13 June. If neither player wins Roland Garros, Medvedev will begin his second stint at World No. 1 after holding the position for three weeks earlier this year.

Djokovic and Zverev will meet in the semi-finals if the Serbian defeats Nadal and the German ousts Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz in a rematch of the Mutua Madrid Open final.

Potential Pepperstone ATP Rankings Points (13 June) Based On RG Result

Medvedev is scheduled to compete in the Libema Open in ‘s-Hertogenbosch next week. However, if Djokovic or Zverev wins Roland Garros, no result he earns at the ATP 250 would catapult him past his rivals on 13 June.

Brad Gilbert was courtside for the first match Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal ever played, at Roland Garros in 2006. Now 16 years later, the two tennis legends will play for the 10th time at the clay-court Grand Slam — and the 59th time overall — in Tuesday night’s quarter-final.

The former World No. 4 admitted a rooting interest in the showdown. He’s pulling for another classic match.

“The tennis fan in me, I just hope we see one of those titanic matches like we saw last year,” he said, referencing the 2021 semi-final epic won by the Serbian. “Sweaty palms, incredible tennis. That’s what I’m rooting for. Then it’s a win-win for tennis.”

Gilbert called that match and the pair’s 2018 Wimbledon semi-final (won by Djokovic over two days) the highest-level contests between them. He sees no reason not to expect more of the same this time around.

“Djoker just quietly has lifted his game,” he assessed. “He’s won 22 sets on the trot [dating back to his Rome title run]. He’s back to kind of being normal Djoker.

“[Diego] Schwartzman’s a hell of a player and he just wiped him out. Obviously he’s not Rafa, but that shows how sharp Djokovic has been.”

Where there’s a will, there’s a way 👊

Defending champion @DjokerNole put in a solid performance to secure his spot in the #RolandGarros quarter-finals 👇 pic.twitter.com/0e4aS0KLTs

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 29, 2022

Gilbert is particularly impressed with the Serbian’s fast starts in those matches and his ability to take command — and take away his opponent’s belief — with early breaks.

“He’s back to starting really fast and he’s playing some seriously good ball,” he said.

“I think that the key will be how he can attack the Rafa forehand. Because I think when he plays his best against Rafa, he’s able to attack Rafa’s forehand.”

As for Nadal, Gilbert was impressed by his outing against Felix Auger-Aliassime and the way the Spaniard improved over the course of the marathon match.

“The most obvious thing for Rafa — he hadn’t really been tested at the French, and then on Sunday he goes four hours and 20 minutes. He looked good physically, didn’t have any of the foot problems that he’s been having, so that was a good sign. 

“It’s a 48-hour turnaround and that was a physical match, but it was needed because FAA played some serious ball.”

Despite both men’s strong form so far this Paris fortnight, it’s their performance in the second week that will define their respective campaigns.

“You don’t judge a tournament off the first 12 sets,” Gilbert said. “You judge it off the last nine sets.

“At the moment, Rafa has a 7-2 head-to-head against him at Roland Garros. He has the greatest history at this one event. Djoker has played the best tennis through the first 12 sets… but he hasn’t played Rafa.”

One big talking point ahead of this match was whether it would be scheduled during the daytime or the evening session. Nadal said that he preferred an earlier start, while Djokovic favoured an evening match.

While the match will be played under the Court Philippe Chatrier lights, Gilbert downplayed the significance of the evening conditions.

“Rafa maybe wanted to play in the day. He wants it fast,” he said. “But Djoker’s great in any conditions, so is Rafa. Both of them – you play them any time, anywhere, they’re gonna play good tennis.

“It’s just a matter of who’s going to be slightly better on the day; who executes.”

So who has the edge entering this heavyweight showdown?

“If it was an [American] football game, Djoker’s about a 1.5-point favourite,” Gilbert said, using his customary handicapping analogy.

“I do think that the first set a lot of times in big matches can be key. But these guys are so good that they can make adjustments. It will be interesting in slower conditions.

“I expect the crowd to be absolutely rocking tomorrow night.”

Stefanos Tsitsipas admitted he was disappointed with his performance against Holger Rune at Roland Garros on Monday, but the World No. 4 believes he will learn important lessons from his fourth-round defeat at the clay-court major.

“[It was] a great match from his side, but I have to say it was a very bad management from far back from the court from my side,” said Tsitsipas in his post-match press conference. “I don’t know, it was as if I was missing too many returns, giving away too many free points without really giving a chance to myself to compete a little bit.”

#NextGenATP Dane Rune upset the fourth seed with a 7-5, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win on Court Philippe Chatrier. Tsitsipas was full of praise for his opponent’s performance, but has already identified the match as a turning point in his bid for further success on the ATP Tour.

“I was a completely different player once I stepped into the court, taking returns early,” said Tsitsipas. “I really feel it’s one of those matches where every match would be a lot different after this point.”

Tsitsipas enjoyed a successful clay-court season overall, successfully defending his title at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters and reaching the final at another ATP Masters 1000 event, the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. Given his strong form, the Greek admitted he felt he was capable of going deeper in Paris.

“I knew I [was] going to have to play difficult opponents that know how to play on this surface, but mentally, physically, tennis-wise, I felt good,” he said. “This is not where I’ve maxed out, let’s say. I didn’t give myself the opportunity to max out. It’s not that he didn’t give it to me, I didn’t give myself the opportunity to go all the way and that is a shame.”

The Greek was impressed by 19-year-old Rune, who was making his maiden appearance in a Grand Slam fourth round on his Roland Garros debut. Tsitsipas admitted that there was an element of surprise to the Dane’s approach on court.

“He’s young, he plays with a lot of emotion,” said Tsitsipas. “[A] one-of-a-kind of an opponent, I would say. It’s kind of strange, I don’t get to face that very often from someone. But then suddenly [he] seems to be playing amazing, which is a good thing, of course.

“He is a very emotional player, he can play great, he absolutely deserves this victory. [He] played better, faced crucial tough moments better. But I can see something different next time with this opponent. I’m pretty convinced I can do way better.”

Tsitsipas recognises the emergence of young talent such as Rune and Carlos Alcaraz may make his push for success on the ATP Tour more difficult, but the eight-time tour-level titlist sees it only as extra motivation.

“[It] has to come at some point, it comes for everyone, right? I’m not worried. I know my tennis, I know my game,” said the Greek.

“These kids are going to want to beat me badly because obviously they are chasing. I’m chasing too, but I’m at a different kind of position than they are. I’m hungry to beat them too. Now that they have beaten me, I want payback.”