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Move In Or Stay Back? Depends Who You Ask!

  • Posted: Oct 29, 2021

Step into the ball. It’s been a part of tennis coaching vernacular for eons, but it is not a panacea that every player employs to win matches in the modern game.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of 67 matches on Hawk-Eye data courts at this month’s BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells found that some players succeeded by stepping inside the baseline to hit the ball but others benefitted by staying deeper in the court.

While the macro picture was mixed, important takeaways could be found when drilling down to specific players. Case in point: Taylor Fritz, who reached his first ATP Masters 1000 semi-final in the desert by stepping forward to the ball better than any of his opponents.

Fritz: Percentage Of Shots Contacted Inside The Baseline

Opponent Fritz Inside Opp. Inside
N. Basilashvili 13% 10%
A. Zverev 31% 17%
J. Sinner 21% 15%
M. Berrettini 45% 30%
B. Nakashima 34% 26%
AVERAGE 29% 20%

Fritz made contact with the ball 29 per cent of the time inside the baseline on average, compared to just 20 per cent for his five opponents. His two top 10 victories against No. 4, Alexander Zverev, and No. 7, Matteo Berrettini, were built on stepping forward to attack the ball much more than his higher-ranked opponents. Fritz made contact with the ball 45 per cent of the time inside the baseline against Berrettini and 31 per cent against Zverev. Fritz was well rewarded for taking the ball early and dictating play.

Tellingly, in the match he lost, Fritz contacted the ball just 13 per cent of the time as the power of Nikoloz Basilashvili kept him pinned behind the baseline. That was massively down on his tournament match average of 29 per cent.

Stepping into the ball involves a number of factors, including hitting a deep or forceful shot on the previous ball to elicit a short ball to move forward against. It is also about having the desire and skillset to take the ball on the rise or at the top of the bounce to open up angles of the court and rush the opponent’s preparation for the next shot.

When Fritz defeated Zverev, the German only made contact with his forehand 19 per cent of the time inside the baseline. But Zverev also featured as the leader in the data set with forehands struck inside the baseline, hitting an astounding 51 per cent inside the baseline in his 6-1, 6-3 round of 16 victory against Gael Monfils.

But there are two sides to this coin. Players were also able to succeed by staying back deep in the court.

The three zones of court position are:
Zone 1. 
Inside the baseline
Zone 2. Within two metres behind the baseline
Zone 3. Past two metres behind the baseline

Basilashvili thrived in the very deep zone, farther back than two metres behind the baseline, to reach the final.

Basilashvili: Percentage Of Shots In The Three Zones

Opponent Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
C. Norrie 13% 57% 30%
T. Fritz 10% 47% 43%
S. Tsitsipas 11% 47% 42%
K. Khachanov 15% 42% 43%
A. Ramos-Vinolas 17% 41% 42%
C. Eubanks 9% 37% 54%
AVERAGE 13% 45% 42%

Of the seven matches for the tournament where the player won the match but stepped inside the baseline the least, Basilashvili accounted for four of them.

Basilashvili’s highest-ranked opponent he defeated was No. 3, Stefanos Tsitsipas. The ability to keep the Greek from stepping into the court like he did in previous rounds was a key component of the upset victory.

Stefanos Tsitsipas: Percentage Of Shots In The Three Zones

Opponent Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
N. Basilashvili 5% 53% 42%
A. De Minaur 25% 57% 18%
F. Fognini 22% 59% 19%
P. Martinez 35% 42% 23%
AVERAGE 22% 53% 26%

Tsitsipas contacted the ball on average 27 per cent of the time in his first three matches at Indian Wells, with the standout being 35 per cent in his round of 64 match against Pedro Martinez. But in his loss to Basilashvili, Tsitsipas only made contact with the ball 5 per cent of the time inside the baseline.

That was the smallest amount struck inside the baseline by any player in the tournament. Overall, players were more likely to step inside the baseline to make contact with a forehand over a backhand.

2021 BNP Paribas Open: Forehands v Backhands Contact Points

Match Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Forehands 26% 50% 24%
Backhands 24% 53% 23%

In general, stepping into the ball and making contact inside the baseline correlated more with winning the match than staying deep behind the baseline. But it’s not a fix-all for all players, as there were still many matches won where the match winner was not the player with the highest percentage of shots inside the baseline.

This metric is best used in a match-by-match comparison, factoring in specific head-to-head playing styles. Horses for courses in the California desert.

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Botic Upsets Rublev In St. Petersburg

  • Posted: Oct 29, 2021

Botic van de Zandschulp’s breakout season is becoming more impressive by the day.

The Dutch qualifier upset top seed Andrey Rublev 6-3, 6-4 on Friday to reach his first ATP Tour semi-final at the St. Petersburg Open. Van de Zandschulp’s win means that there will not be a third consecutive Russian winner at the event.

“First time in the semis. It feels amazing,” van de Zandschulp said in his on-court interview. “I played a great match, played a smart match, [and I am] so happy to be through.”

The No. 69 player in the FedEx ATP Rankings has not lost a set in the main draw in St. Petersburg and he will play 2011 champion Marin Cilic for a place in the championship match.

“He made the final last week in Moscow,” van de Zandschulp said of Cilic. “He’s playing great at the moment, and I think it’s going to be an interesting match.”

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Van de Zandschulp announced himself on a global stage at the US Open, where as a qualifier he advanced to the quarter-finals and won a set against eventual champion Daniil Medvedev. The Dutchman has maintained his momentum from that run and looked comfortable in his one-hour, 33-minute victory against Rublev.

The top seed was frustrated throughout, as he struggled to find a middle ground between playing too aggressively and not aggressively enough. His opponent took full advantage, rallying from a break down in the second set to claim his first Top 10 win (1-2).

Marin Cilic
Photo Credit: Formula TX #FORMULATX
One day after clawing past Karen Khachanov, former World No. 3 Cilic battled past third seed Roberto Bautista Agut 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 to reach the semi-finals.

“Today was a difficult match mentally, very, very different from yesterday,” Cilic said in his on-court interview. “During the match I was a lot up and down and I felt that I didn’t have great rhythm. But I felt that continuously I was making chances and I just had to stay mentally in the match.” 

Even in the last game, Bautista Agut put pressure on his opponent. But Cilic hit four consecutive big serves to get out of trouble and advance after two hours and 34 minutes.

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Zverev Sets Alcaraz SF In Vienna

  • Posted: Oct 29, 2021

Alexander Zverev continued his quest for his fifth tour-level title of the season on Friday at the Erste Bank Open, downing Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 to capture his 50th tour-level victory of the season and reach the semi-finals in Vienna.

The second seed, who earned his 300th tour-level win on Thursday when he defeated Australian Alex de Minaur, was strong on serve, winning 80 per cent (40/50) of points behind his first delivery. The German recovered from a dip in the second set as he raised his level in the decider to advance after two hours and six minutes.

“I did make it difficult for myself once again, that needs to stop happening,” Zverev said. “One easy mistake and the second set went away. But I am proud of myself because at the beginning of the second set it could have gone his way easily.”

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Zverev now leads Auger-Aliassime 4-1 in their ATP Head2Head series, gaining revenge from his defeat to the sixth seed in the fourth round at Wimbledon in July.

The World No. 4 will face #NextGenATP Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz in the last four after the 18-year-old upset Italian Matteo Berrettini 6-1, 6-7(2), 7-6(5) to reach his first ATP 500 semi-final.

“He [Alcaraz] has improved a lot,” Zverev added. “He has made big steps forward and is a great player, so I am looking forward to that match.”

Zverev is making his second main-draw appearance in Vienna, having enjoyed a run to the quarter-finals in 2017. Earlier this season, the 17-time tour-level titlist triumphed at ATP Masters 1000 events in Madrid and Cincinnati. The German also lifted the trophy in Acapulco and captured the gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics.

After winning 100 per cent (9/9) of his first-service points in the opening set, Zverev moved ahead and looked in control. That was until the eighth game of the second set, when the German missed a volley on top of the net at 30/0. Auger-Aliassime went on to break in that game, before levelling on serve.

However, Zverev regained his focus and composure in the decider and converted on his sixth break point in a mammoth 16-minute sixth game of the decider. Zverev then sealed victory when Auger-Aliassime hit a backhand long

With his defeat, Auger-Aliassime’s bid to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals suffered a blow. The 21-year-old is 12th (2,420 points) in the FedEx ATP Race To Turin, 535 points behind ninth-placed Hubert Hurkacz. The Pole currently occupies the final qualification spot with eighth-placed Rafael Nadal out for the rest of the season due to a foot injury.

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Alcaraz Upsets Berrettini In Vienna Classic, Reaches SFs

  • Posted: Oct 29, 2021

#NextGenATP star Carlos Alcaraz is just 18 years old, but you would not have thought it on Friday at the Erste Bank Open, where he upset World No. 7 Matteo Berrettini 6-1, 6-7(2), 7-6(5) to reach the semi-finals.

The Spaniard hit 24 winners as he showcased his power from the baseline throughout. Alcaraz mixed his aggressive hitting with great touch to cause Berrettini problems, advancing after two hours and 40 minutes in a high-quality match.

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It is the first time Alcaraz has reached the last four at an ATP 500 event, with his victory over Berrettini the second biggest win of his career by FedEx ATP Ranking. The 18-year-old shocked World No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round at the US Open in September.

Alcaraz, who is making his debut in Vienna, overcame British pair Daniel Evans and Andy Murray earlier this week. The Spaniard is aiming to win his second tour-level title, after triumphing in Umag in July.

The World No. 42 will next face second seed Alexander Zverev or Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime in his fourth tour-level semi-final of the season.

In a fast start, Alcaraz quickly clicked into gear as he found his best tennis to pin Berrettini behind the baseline with his flat and accurate groundstrokes, moving ahead after 29 minutes. However, Berrettini began to dig in during the second set and raised his level in the crucial moments, saving all four break points he faced as they moved to a decider.

Alcaraz quickly regained his grip on the match in the third set as he raced 4-1 ahead, but was pegged back to 4-4 after Berrettini produced a strong return
game. The pair then moved to a tie-break, in which Alcaraz raised his game and the roof to secure his victory on his third match point.

Berrettini was bidding to reach his first tour-level semi-final since Wimbledon, where he advanced to the championship match. The third seed reached the last four in
Vienna in 2019 and booked his place at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin after his first-round victory against Australian Alexei Popyrin on Monday.

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Fritz Storms Into St. Petersburg SFs

  • Posted: Oct 29, 2021

Taylor Fritz produced an impressive performance on Friday at the St. Petersburg Open, overcoming John Millman 6-4, 6-2 to reach his second consecutive tour-level semi-final.

The American, who celebrated his 24th birthday by defeating Tommy Paul on Thursday, rallied from a break down in the first set and won 73 per cent (19/26) of his first-serve points to advance after 74 minutes.

“It feels great. I came out and played really well today,” Fritz said in his on-court interview. “I knew what I had to do and I did it and I played well and I am happy to be in the semi-finals. There was a really important point [at the start of the second set] and I won that point and I carried the momentum from there. It was a really important break.”

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Fritz is yet to drop a set in St. Petersburg and arrived at the ATP 250 event in form, having defeated World No. 4 Alexander Zverev en route to his first ATP Masters 1000 semi-final in Indian Wells earlier this month.

The fifth seed now leads Millman 2-0 in their ATP Head2Head series and is into his sixth tour-level semi-final of the season, with the World No. 28 also advancing to this stage in Doha, Cagliari, Los Cabos and Atlanta.

Fritz will next face Jan-Lennard Struff after the German upset second-seeded Canadian Denis Shapovalov 6-4, 6-3 in 81 minutes.

Struff was strong on serve, winning 88 per cent (22/25) of points behind his first delivery to improve to 5-2 in his ATP Head2Head series against Shapovalov. The 31-year-old has fond memories in St. Petersburg, where he also advanced to the last four in 2017.

“Denis is an amazing player, so the victory means a lot to me, to reach the semi-finals here for a second time,” Struff said in his on-court interview. “He beat me pretty easily in Dubai. He played very good and I didn’t play very well, so I knew I had to put a lot of energy into the match today and I did. I was serving well and returning well, so that was the key.”

Earlier this season, the World No. 53 enjoyed a run to his first tour-level final on home soil in Munich.

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Murray/Soares Battle Into St. Petersburg Semi-finals

  • Posted: Oct 29, 2021

Jamie Murray and Bruno Soares, who are eighth in the FedEx ATP Doubles Team Rankings, currently hold the final qualifying spot for the Nitto ATP Finals. This week at the St. Petersburg Open, they are doing well to give themselves breathing room.

The top seeds earned a 7-6(0), 3-6, 10-6 win on Thursday against Australians Luke Saville and John-Patrick Smith to reach the St. Petersburg semi-finals.

The veteran duo will next play New Zealand’s Marcus Daniell and Brazilian Marcelo Demoliner, who were 6-0, 3-6, 10-7 winners against Americans Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul. Earlier in the day, Fritz defeated Paul in the singles draw.

Canadian Denis Shapovalov, the second seed in the singles field, and partner Rohan Bopanna of India, clawed past Russian stars Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev 6-4, 5-7, 10-7.

Gille/Koepfer Upset Top Seeds In Vienna
The three doubles matches played at the Erste Bank Open on Thursday went to a Match Tie-break, and in one, the top seeds were upset.

Lucky losers Sander Gille of Belgium and Dominik Koepfer of Germany stunned top seeds Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic 3-6, 7-6(2), 11-9. 

In other action, second seeds Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury, this year’s US Open champions, eliminated Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime and two-time Roland Garros titlist Andreas Mies of Germany 6-3, 6-7(7), 10-6. Also advancing were third seeds John Peers and Filip Polasek, who ousted Austrian wild cards Oliver Marach and Philipp Oswald 6-7(4), 6-3, 10-4.

 

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Tremendous Tiafoe Stuns Tsitsipas In Vienna

  • Posted: Oct 28, 2021

Never count out Frances Tiafoe.

The American showed why on Thursday evening when he staged an impressive rally from 0-3 down in the deciding set to stun top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 for a place in the Erste Bank Open quarter-finals.

After a short lapse in the second set, Tsitsipas appeared to have regained his level as he sprinted through the first three games in the decider. But Tiafoe, who constantly engaged the Austrian crowd, battled back to triumph after one hour and 49 minutes.

“You’ve got fans going nuts early in the match. I want to play. I want to be out there, I want to give it my all. You’ve got little kids screaming ‘Big Foe’ and that’s what it’s about,” Tiafoe said. “It’s almost irrelevant who you’re playing. Obviously I want to beat Stefanos and these guys, it’s always good to have on the resumé. It’s been great.”

It was a thrilling match with entertaining points throughout. But in the crucial moments, Tiafoe was the more decisive player, and that made the difference.

Stefanos Tsitsipas
Photo Credit: Thomas Kronsteiner/Getty Images
Tsitsipas double faulted to give Tiafoe the deciding break in the third set. Despite facing the pressure of serving out the match, the American played bold tennis to close things out, hitting a massive second serve at 30/15 and eliciting a return error on the next point to seal his victory.

Tiafoe now leads the pair’s ATP Head2Head series 2-1, with all three of their meetings coming this year. He was victorious at Wimbledon, and Tsitsipas beat him at the Tokyo Olympics.

In his only previous appearance in Vienna three years ago, Tiafoe lost in the first round. But he made just 14 unforced errors to move into his second ATP 500 quarter-final of the year.

“I just love playing in a packed house. I feel at home. I feel like that’s what it’s about,” Tiafoe said. “The result is almost irrelevant sometimes. You have kids coming out, parents bring these kids out, pay their hard-earned money to come watch me play. I want people to have fun just like I’m having fun… I feel it’s my duty to ‘A’, bring it, give my all, but also to make sure everyone has fun. That kid at the top of the stadium, I want them going home remembering [they] watched Frances Tiafoe play and [they] had a great time.”

The 23-year-old will next play eighth seed Diego Schwartzman, who clawed past Frenchman Gael Monfils 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-2 after two hours and 32 minutes.

That was another exciting encounter, in which both men showed incredible speed and athleticism. In one hilarious moment, Monfils let slip his racquet as he hit a volley and, as a joke, hit the next volley with his hands, giving Schwartzman the point. Both men laughed about it at the net.

The Argentine did not face a break point in the deciding set and showed some of the form that helped him to the Antwerp final last week. Schwartzman has now won 10 of his past 13 matches.

“For me it was an important match. The only bad part [is] I cannot see Paris Saint-Germain tomorrow [with] Messi in France. I’m kidding, I’m kidding!” Schwartzman said in his post-match interview. “I calmed down a little bit in the third [set].”

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Zverev Earns 300th Win: 'This Is Definitely A Massive Milestone'

  • Posted: Oct 28, 2021

German Alexander Zverev earned his 300th tour-level win on Thursday at the Erste Bank Open, where he defeated Australian Alex de Minaur 6-2, 3-6, 6-2 to reach the quarter-finals.

“I started on the Tour when I was 16 years old and now being 24, I’m still quite young, so I’m quite happy to have this achievement at an early stage in my career,” Zverev told ATPTour.com. “Hopefully there are a lot more coming.”

Zverev claimed his first tour-level victory seven years ago in Hamburg against Robin Haase. Now the German is 300-138 and his 68.3 winning percentage ranks sixth among active players, trailing only Novak Djokovic (83.2%), Rafael Nadal (83.1%), Roger Federer (82%), Andy Murray (76.5%) and Juan Martin del Potro (71.7%).

“This is definitely a massive milestone for me,” Zverev said in his post-match interview.

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A few victories stick out to Zverev, who is a five-time Nitto ATP Finals qualifier and the 2018 champion at the season finale.

“The most memorable one is the first one against Haase in Hamburg when I was 17. [I would also say my] first win against Roger in Halle, because it was in Germany as well… and I think the first tournament victory against Stan in St. Petersburg [in 2016],” Zverev added.

The Vienna second seed had to work hard to eliminate De Minaur. He powered through behind 17 aces and won 89 per cent of his first-serve points to reach the quarter-finals.

“I missed too many chances in the second set, I can’t do that. I was rushing maybe a little bit too much. I did too many unforced errors then and credit to Alex because he picked up his level,” Zverev said. “He saw his chance and he used it, so credit to him. But in the third set, I picked it up again and I’m happy [it went] my way.”

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Cilic Claws Past Khachanov In St. Petersburg

  • Posted: Oct 28, 2021

Marin Cilic is Croatian, but he is making himself at home in Russia.

The former World No. 3 made the final in Moscow last week, and on Thursday he battled into the quarter-finals in St. Petersburg. Cilic rallied past home favourite Karen Khachanov 6-4, 6-7(1), 6-4 to advance to the last eight.

“It was an amazing match, great level from both sides,” Cilic said in his on-court interview. “Karen played really, really well and on a few occasions [was] just a little bit unlucky. In the third set I was break point up at 1-1, then 40/0 on my game. One or two points here and there [were the difference], but I have to say it was definitely a great match.”

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Khachanov pushed hard to continue his run at home, where he earned a 4-1 lead in the deciding set with his aggressive play. But Cilic stormed back to claim the final five games and with it the match after two hours and 30 minutes.

Cilic won the St. Petersburg title in his most recent appearance at the event in 2011. But with the likes of top seed Andrey Rublev still in the draw, the Croatian is not getting ahead of himself.

“Everybody is playing good. The tournament is great. It’s the end of the season, so everybody wants to finish on a great level,” Cilic said. “For me it was great to play this kind of a match today.”

It will not get any easier in the quarter-finals against third seed Roberto Bautista Agut. The Spanish veteran eliminated American Mackenzie McDonald 6-3, 6-2 in one hour and 19 minutes.

“I love playing here in St. Petersburg. I like this court. I like the conditions. I like the city, also,” Bautista said in his on-court interview. “I’m happy that I won the first match in two sets and [I will] be ready for tomorrow.”

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