Around the time Roger Federer won his first major singles title, at Wimbledon in 2003, Novak Djokovic was playing a Futures event in Beograd, Serbia. He was 16 years old, ranked No. 768 in the FedEx ATP Rankings and won $480 for reaching the semi-finals.
When Federer won the 2007 US Open, his 12th major singles title, Djokovic, now 20, had zero. By the time of Federer’s record-breaking 15th Grand Slam championship, at 2009 Wimbledon, Djokovic had finally gotten on the board, winning the 2008 Australian Open.
That was a dozen years ago. Heading into this US Open, Djokovic, Federer and Rafael Nadal all have a once-unimaginable 20 major titles, but only the Serb will step on court at Flushing Meadows this year. He is favoured to become the first to 21 and, for good measure, to complete a Grand Slam.
How did Djokovic catch his great rivals them so quickly?
Brad Gilbert, sitting in his northern California home, laughs and repeats the question.
“How did he catch them?” the ESPN analyst asks. “A s*%#load of winning. He’s won eight out of the past 12, OK? Fed has none in that time, and Rafa has three – which isn’t all that bad. The bottom line is that Djokovic has been more prolific in his early 30s.”
Djokovic, still only 34 years old, has huge advantages of time, age and physical fitness on his rivals going forward. Federer, who turned 40 in August, is out for the year after announcing another knee surgery. Nadal, 35, will also miss the US Open and the remainder of the year with a foot injury. Djokovic, whose training regimen famously features yoga, tai chi and lots of stretching, remains limber and lithe, fluid and flexible.
“For as long as he has been playing, Novak’s been chasing Roger and Rafa,” said four-time Grand Slam champion Jim Courier, “and is now on the verge of passing them in the major title count.
“To win as much as he has is already incredible, but to do it in this era with the other two greatest players on the other side of the net boggles the mind.”
Here’s another mind-boggler: Since Federer’s breakthrough at Wimbledon in 2003, the Big Three has won 60 of the 72 major singles titles available – an unprecedented swath of success. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka managed to win three each, followed by Juan Martin del Potro, Marin Cilic, Marat Safin, Gaston Gaudio, Andy Roddick and Dominic Thiem, with one each.
In 2003, a gallon of gas cost $1.89, iTunes was launched and J.K. Rowling published her fifth Harry Potter book – so it’s been a virtual monopoly on majors for close to two decades. Because of their age differences – and personal curves of physical and mental maturity – each player has enjoyed a significant run of dominance.
Federer reached 10 consecutive Grand Slam finals from 2005 Wimbledon to the 2007 US Open, where he was 8-2, with the losses coming to Nadal. Nadal’s best streak, when he won eight of 17 major titles, came from Roland Garros 2010-14.
With Federer, then Nadal and now Djokovic all taking their turn at the top, it’s been difficult for the rest of the ATP field to break through. It’s also worth noting that each of the Big Three has a different favourite major. Nadal has 13 Roland Garros titles, while Federer is an eight-time Wimbledon champion. Djokovic has nine Australian Open titles and is the only man to win all four twice.
Djokovic, as Gilbert points out, has now won eight of the past 12 majors – all of them after turning 30. Ultimately, the post-30 scoreboard has proved to be the difference-maker: Djokovic (8), Nadal (6), Federer (4).
Consistency has been Djokovic’s career calling card. Djokovic has spend 336 weeks at No. 1 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, passing Federer’s record mark of 310 weeks earlier in the season. It’s conceivable that Djokovic next year will even top the 377 weeks Stefanie Graf sat atop the WTA Rankings.
One man who will be keenly watching Djokovic’s progress at the US Open is Australian Rod Laver. Just in from a round of golf near his home in southern California, Laver marvelled at Djokovic’s 2021 form.
“It’s amazing,” Laver says, “that Djokovic is playing as good as he is.”
Photo Credit: Pete Staples/USTA
Laver is the only tennis player in history to win all four Grand Slam titles in a single season twice, in 1962 and 1969. Djokovic is in position to become only the third man to achieve the Grand Slam. He won titles earlier this year at the Australian Open, Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
Don Budge won the Grand Slam in 1939, followed by Maureen Connolly (1953), Margaret Court (1970) and Graf (1988).
Djokovic actually held all four major titles simultaneously, winning 2015 Wimbledon, the 2015 US Open, the 2016 Australian Open (beating Federer in all three finals) and 2016 Roland Garros (Andy Murray). Three women — Navratilova, Graf and Serena Williams — have also won non-calendar Grand Slams.
“I think Novak’s got a good chance to win the Slam,” Laver adds. “He’s a worthy champion.”
After winning at Wimbledon, Djokovic made the long journey to Tokyo, hoping to win an Olympic gold medal and set himself up for an attempt to equal Graf’s Golden Slam of 1988. He reached the semi-finals, but fell to Alexander Zverev, later losing the bronze medal match to Pablo Carreno Busta.
“Will he win in New York?” Gilbert asks. “It will be interesting to see. He didn’t play Toronto or Cincinnati coming in. He loses three times in 2021, then loses on back-to-back days in Tokyo.
“Can he hit the re-set button in New York? There will be a lot of pressure.”
Courier also referenced the p-word.
“I think he’ll do it [win the US Open], but the pressure will be unlike anything he has experienced,” Courier says. “He is not likely to get another chance to go for a Grand Slam, so it adds massive weight to the moment.
“We saw what happened when Serena was in this position in New York some years ago and was upset in the semis by an unlikely foe, Roberta Vinci.”
Williams had won the first three majors of 2015, reached the US Open semi-finals by beating sister Venus in the quarters, but lost to Vinci for the only time in her career. Likewise, Serena has been 0-4 in attempting to secure a record-tying 24th major singles title at the ages of 36 and 37.
Courier believes the next two weeks could go a long way toward determining the sport’s GOAT – the Greatest Of All Time.
“If Novak becomes the only one of the big three to win the Grand Slam,” Courier says, “it would be a large differentiator and important part of the eventual discussion of who had the greatest career.”
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