Nadal, Djokovic Would Be Hall of Fame Baseball Players
Nadal, Djokovic Would Be Hall of Fame Baseball Players
If you can get on base three times out of 10 in baseball, which is referred to as batting .300, then you are one of the elite in the sport.
Statistics in tennis usually focus on much higher winning percentages, but an equivalent stat does exist with an almost identical win percentage – points won returning first serves.
In baseball, you must stare down a 100 mph fastball, and in tennis the speed of a first serve can regularly reach 130-mph plus. Both very difficult propositions to begin the contest.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 20 from the 2015 season to present identifies that, on average, they win 29.5 per cent against first serves, or .295 in baseball vernacular.
The batter and the returner both face serious heat to begin the point, and both are defined as “successful” if they conquer the pitcher or server just one out of every three times.
Since 2015, Rafael Nadal leads the current Top 20 with points won returning first serves at 34.5 per cent. The other seven players that successfully batted above .300 are Novak Djokovic (34.2%), Diego Schwartzman (33%), Roger Federer (32.3%), Fabio Fognini (31.5%), David Goffin (31.4%), Kei Nishikori (30.6%) and Dominic Thiem (30.4%).
Current Top 20: Points Won Returning First Serves 2015 to present
|
ATP Ranking |
Player |
First-Serve Return Points Won |
Total First-Serve Return Points |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
R. Nadal |
4209 |
12207 |
34.5% |
|
3 |
N. Djokovic |
4215 |
12309 |
34.2% |
|
14 |
D. Schwartzman |
2788 |
8446 |
33% |
|
2 |
R. Federer |
3346 |
10359 |
32.3% |
|
13 |
F. Fognini |
3077 |
9781 |
31.5% |
|
11 |
D. Goffin |
3763 |
11971 |
31.4% |
|
12 |
K. Nishikori |
3416 |
11172 |
30.6% |
|
8 |
D. Thiem |
4191 |
13774 |
30.4% |
|
7 |
G. Dimitrov |
3470 |
11655 |
29.8% |
|
5 |
A. Zverev |
3344 |
11296 |
29.6% |
|
6 |
M. Cilic |
3601 |
12179 |
29.6% |
|
4 |
J.M. Del Potro |
2092 |
7197 |
29.1% |
|
17 |
J. Sock |
2575 |
9292 |
27.7% |
|
16 |
K. Edmund |
1944 |
7114 |
27.3% |
|
18 |
B. Coric |
2319 |
8519 |
27.2% |
|
19 |
L. Pouille |
2320 |
8611 |
26.9% |
|
20 |
M. Raonic |
2762 |
10299 |
26.8% |
|
15 |
S. Tsitsipas |
871 |
3282 |
26.5% |
|
9 |
K. Anderson |
2924 |
11274 |
25.9% |
|
10 |
J. Isner |
2651 |
12158 |
21.8% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
59878 |
202895 |
29.5% |
What’s interesting is how much the court surface factors into points won against first serves.
Of the seven ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments completed so far in 2018, Nadal has the largest total of first-serve return points won by a champion, and also the least. At the clay-court Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, he won a staggering 43.6 per cent of first-serve return points, but won just 29.1 per cent while winning the Rogers Cup, the hard-court Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto.
2018 Completed Masters 1000 Events: First-Serve Return Points Won By Champion
|
# |
Masters 1000 |
Winner |
First-Serve Return Points Won / Total |
Win % |
|
1 |
Monte-Carlo |
R. Nadal |
58/133 |
43.6% |
|
2 |
Rome |
R. Nadal |
91/217 |
41.9% |
|
3 |
Madrid |
A. Zverev |
80/219 |
36.5% |
|
4 |
Cincinnati |
N. Djokovic |
107/327 |
32.7% |
|
5 |
Indian Wells |
J. M. Del Potro |
97/299 |
32.4% |
|
6 |
Miami |
J. Isner |
83/271 |
30.6% |
|
7 |
Toronto |
R. Nadal |
60/206 |
29.1% |
|
|
AVERAGE |
– |
576/1672 |
34.4% |
The clay-court tournament winners at Monte-Carlo, Rome and Madrid averaged winning 40.2 per cent of first-serve return points, while the hard-court champions at Cincinnati, Indian Wells, Miami and Toronto were way off that pace, winning 31.5 per cent of first-serve return points.
Baseball has a pitcher and a hitter. Tennis has a server and a receiver. The similarities, particularly defined by the winning percentages, are striking.