Need A Second Serve? Call Federer…

When Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are positioned first, second and third in a specific statistic over a five-year period, you know that it is a dominant driving force of their continued success.

The metric is second-serve points won and from 2015-2019 nobody on the planet was more successful winning points behind their second serve than the Big Three. Federer led the trio and the ATP Tour in second-serve points won over the five-year period, winning 58.61 per cent (4,237/7,229) of his second-serve points.

In second place, less than one percentage point back, was Nadal at 57.86 per cent (4,011/6,932), with World No. 1 Djokovic less than a percentage point back of Nadal, at 56.92 per cent (4407/7742).

Both Federer and Nadal were able to cross the daunting 60 per cent threshold of second-serve points won on grass, with Federer winning 60.16 per cent, and Nadal at 60.03 per cent. The Infosys Beyond The Numbers data set contains all players that have hit at least 1000 second serves over the five-year period from 2015-2019.

Federer/Nadal/Djokovic: Second Serve Points Won 2015-2019 On Each Surface – (Bold = Big Three Leader)

John Isner sits in fourth place overall with second-serve points won from 2015-2019 on all surfaces, winning 56.54 per cent (3,754/ 6,640) of second-serve points. Isner’s most recent tournament victory came in July 2019 at the Hall of Fame Open in Newport, where he won a dominant 58.77 per cent (67/114) of second-serve points.

Milos Raonic is in fifth spot, winning 56.17 per cent (3,507/6,243) of second-serve points from 2015-2019. Rounding out the Top 10 are:

No. 6: Ivo Karlovic = 55.63% (3,142/5,648)
No. 7: Stan Wawrinka = 55.48% (4,805/8,661)
No. 8: Reilly Opelka = 55.09% (1,261/2,289)
No. 9: Juan Ignacio Londero = 54.69% (752/1,375)
No. 10: Miomir Kecmanovic = 64.55% (744/1,364)

Federer won’t be competing in the ‘Sunshine Double’ at Indian Wells and Miami this year as he is recovering from right knee surgery, but he does lead all players with second-serve points won at the two ATP Masters 1000 tournaments over the past five years, winning 60.36 per cent (504/835).

An important element of the second serve to understand is that most of them come back in play. At the recently completed Australian Open, the tournament average for unreturned first serves was 37%, but that dropped all the way down to 17 per cent for second serves.

Djokovic won the title Down Under, and led the trio with the highest amount of unreturned second serves at 22 per cent.

2020 Australian Open: Big Three Unreturned Second Serves

Djokovic = 22% (40/185)
Nadal = 18% (28/153)
Federer = 17% (37/219)

The career leader for second-serve points won is Nadal at 57.42 per cent (15,327/26,692). He will once again be relying on this proven strength of his game in 2020 as he looks to add to the 85 tour-level singles titles he has already captured in his career.