Novak Chases Rafa’s Record In Indian Wells As ATP Rankings Also Come Into Focus

Novak Djokovic, in his first tournament since earning a record-breaking seventh Australian Open crown in January, is chasing ATP Masters 1000 history at the BNP Paribas Open. The World No. 1, who owns 32 trophies at the elite level, will try to tie second seed Rafael Nadal’s record of 33 Masters 1000 titles.

Djokovic, a five-time champion at Indian Wells, can lift a record sixth BNP Paribas Open trophy. It won’t be easy for the Serbian, though, as Nadal is in good form. The Spaniard reached the Australian Open final, and while he lost in the second round of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC, he battled eventual champion Nick Kyrgios into a third-set tie-break.

While much interest will centre on Djokovic’s attempt to tie Nadal’s Masters 1000 titles record, both players have an opportunity to put more distance between them and the chasing pack in the ATP Rankings. But the year’s first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament offers lots of opportunities further down the list.

Novak & Rafa Can Strengthen Their Top 2 Spots
When the new ATP Rankings are released on Monday, World No. 1 Djokovic (10,955 points) will lead second-ranked Nadal (8,365 points) by 2,590 points. Nadal will hold a 1,770-point advantage over World No. 3 Alexander Zverev.

Considering that Djokovic is defending just 10 points from an opening-round loss to Taro Daniel last year and Nadal is not defending any points because he did not play this tournament due to injury in 2018, the Top 2 players in the world have an opportunity to strengthen their grips on their respective positions. Djokovic and Nadal have won more Masters 1000 titles (65) than all other active players combined (55) and have captured eight of the past 12 BNP Paribas Open trophies.

Federer Trying To Maintain Top 5 Spot
Roger Federer (4,600 points) began his 2018 season 17-0, with his first loss coming in the Indian Wells final against Juan Martin del Potro. So while on Monday the 37-year-old Swiss returns to the Top 5 at No. 4 thanks to his triumph at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Federer has 600 points to defend in the desert.

If Federer loses those points, World No. 6 Kevin Anderson (4,295 points) and No. 7 Kei Nishikori (4,190 points) will have a chance to move ahead of the Swiss simply by outperforming him at Indian Wells. Anderson is defending only 180 points from a quarter-final appearance last year, and Nishikori has no points to defend. Federer will need to advance to at least the quarter-finals to have a chance of remaining in the Top 5.

Del Potro To Fall To, At Best, No. 8
Del Potro captured his maiden Masters 1000 crown at the BNP Paribas Open last year. But after announcing his withdrawal from the tournament to further allow his knee to heal, the Argentine will drop 1,000 points when the next ATP Rankings are released on 18 March.

The Nos. 6-8 players in the world — Kevin Anderson, Kei Nishikori and Dominic Thiem — are guaranteed to pass the ‘Tower of Tandil’, as Del Potro will have 3,585 points, and they will all have more, even with opening-round losses. The likes of John Isner and Stefanos Tsitsipas could also surpass Del Potro with big performances over the next fortnight. 

Tsitsipas Can Solidify His Top 10 Spot
Tsitsipas, who is making his debut in the Top 10, can give himself cushion with a big effort in the desert. The reigning Next Gen ATP Finals champion, who triumphed two weeks ago in Marseille and lost to Federer in the Dubai final, is defending only 25 points after losing to Dominic Thiem in 2018.

Kyrgios Can Continue His Ascent
Entering the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC, Kyrgios was No. 72 in the ATP Rankings, his lowest standing since Wimbledon in 2014, when the Aussie was World No. 144.

Kyrgios rises 39 spots on Monday to No. 33, and since he did not compete at Indian Wells last year, he has no points to defend, giving him an opportunity to return to the Top 30 and, with another strong effort, possibly climb even further.

Did You Know?
Seven of the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings are defending 45 points or less at the BNP Paribas Open, with five members of the elite group (Djokovic, Nadal, Zverev, Nishikori and Isner) defending 10 points or less.