Novak Djokovic: The Power Of One

Imagine losing 43 per cent of all points you play, and it being the best day of your life. Welcome to Novak’s world.

To start 2016, Novak Djokovic mentally seems to be widening the gap between himself and everyone else on the planet. The gap ‘feels’ cavernous. The ‘Big Four’ is currently dominated by one player.

Novak is unbeaten so far in 2016, going 12-0 with titles in Doha and Melbourne. He has won a pre-eminent 57 per cent of his points so far this season. Those numbers add up just perfectly for the World No. 1.

The super Serb has 16,790 Emirates ATP Rankings points this week, which is about double that of World No. 2 Andy Murray (8,945 points) and about 10 times as many as World No. 20 Bernard Tomic (1,720 points). But there is good news for all the players chasing Djokovic up the mountain. Forget looking at Emirates ATP Rankings points. That’s just going to make you nauseous.

Players need to break the daunting chase down to it’s simplest element in order to follow the same road map Djokovic took to the summit. Don’t focus on matches, sets or games. Focus on points, which are the critical building blocks of our sport. An investigation of points lays bare the incremental improvements in Djokovic’s game, helping to dissect his global dominance.

A detailed Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers analysis of Djokovic’s last three seasons gives you a crystal clear look at his pathway to the top.

2014 = 55% Points Won (Record 61-8)
Winning 55 per cent of points in a season is going to put you at World No. 1, year in and year out. If you win 55 per cent of points in a set, it’s typically going to be 6-3. Winning 55 per cent of points over a season has been the gold standard of our sport, basically assuring you sit above all in the Emirates ATP Rankings.

2015 = 56% Points Won (Record 82-6)
Djokovic somehow found another level last year, having one of the best seasons our sport has seen. What is interesting is that playing absolutely lights out, winning 11 events, including three Grand Slams, six ATP World Tour Masters 1000s and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, only resulted in a one percentage point upswing for the Serb.

2016 so far = 57% Points Won (Record 12-0)
The Serb has won 100 per cent of his matches to start the 2016 season, but that is only derived from a one percentage point bump above and beyond what he achieved last year. Because Djokovic wins every match, it ‘feels’ like he is almost winning every point. But that’s far from the truth.

Returning Is Improving
From 2015 to 2016, Djokovic is making the same amount of first serves (66 per cent), winning the same amount of second serve points (60 per cent), and winning exactly the same amount of points serving (70 per cent).

It’s the returning side of life where he has primarily squeezed the extra one per cent from this year. The world’s best returner is actually returning better, as the data below reveal.

So far this season, Djokovic has found a way to put up superior numbers to those of 2014 and 2015. There is still a long way to go in the year, but it’s the best start possible.

Overview
Win 55 per cent of points over a season and you own the world. Play your best for a year, and you can add just one more percentage point to that total. Achieve perfection with matches won, and it’s just a solitary, single click more. Basic metrics are the foundation of the sport.

It’s impossible to sit on the side of a court watching a match and identify where that one percentage point of separation out of 100 is won by Djokovic. It’s too much of a blur. We feel Djokovic is playing better, but it’s the numbers that identify exactly where he is blazing new ground.

Read more insights at Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers