Raonic Reaps Rewards On Return
Raonic Reaps Rewards On Return
In 2015, Milos Raonic lost serve only 39 times in 49 matches. Not enough.
In 2016, the 6’5” Canadian was broken 86 times in 69 matches. Now we are talking.
Raonic ended 2015 ranked 14 in the world in the Emirates ATP Rankings, and just completed the 2016 season with his career best ranking of No. 3. On the surface, getting broken more than twice as much in 2016 than 2015 seems counter-intuitive to such dramatic improvement. It’s not.
In fact, basically everything from a serving standpoint slightly declined in 2016 compared to 2015 for Raonic, but to focus only on his service games would be the same as not being able to see the forest for the trees.
What’s the point of being an exceptional server, if you can’t break enough to win? Raonic greatly improved his return game this season, evolving from a player too reliant on serving, to creating a more potent, balanced attack. He got the mix right.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Raonic’s ascension uncovers a player who got a little worse at serving and whole lot better overall as a player, and hey presto – No. 3 in the world.
Raonic Serving
Across the board, the numbers were not as impressive in 2016 as 2015. What we must keep in mind is that Raonic went from peerless metrics to still very solid numbers compared to the rest of the tour.
Milos Raonic: 10 Focus Points Serving 2015-2016
|
Serving Analytics |
2015 | 2016 | +/- |
| Double Faults | 142 | 228 | +56 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 81% | 80% | -1% |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 58% | 55% | -3% |
| Break Points Saved | 78% | 69% | -9% |
| Service Games Won | 94% | 91% | -3% |
| Total Service Games Won | 73% | 71% | -2% |
| Holding Serve With New Balls | 97% | 91% | -6% |
| Holding Serve From 0/30 | 63% | 52% | -9% |
| Holding Serve From 30/40 | 80% | 53% | -27% |
Raonic Returning
This is the beating heart of Raonic’s improvement.
In 2015, Raonic broke 77 times in 629 return games, which equals once every 8.2 service games. In 2016, he blew the doors off those numbers, breaking 164 times in 893 return games, breaking once every 5.5 games.
Instead of putting all his eggs in the serve basket, Raonic become more complete, bolstered the return side of the equation, and increased his prize money from $1.4M in 2015 to $4.6M this season.
Milos Raonic: 10 Focus Points Returning 2015-2016
|
Returning Analytics |
2015 | 2016 | +/- |
| 1st Return Points Won | 24% | 28% | +4% |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 44% | 49% | +5% |
| Break Points Converted | 33% | 36% | +3% |
| Return Games Won | 12% | 18% | +6% |
| Return Points Won | 31% | 36% | +5% |
| Breaking With New Balls | 14% | 21% | +7% |
| Breaking After Losing Serve | 6% | 14% | +8% |
| Breaking From 15/15 | 15% | 20% | +5% |
| Breaking From 0/30 | 16% | 40% | +24% |
| Breaking From 30/40 | 29% | 47% | +18% |
At the 2016 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, Raonic held a match point against eventual champion Andy Murray in the semi-finals, losing 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(9). In an ominous warning to opponents in the upcoming season, Raonic won the longer points of 9+ shots 16-14 against the Brit. Who would have thought…
In 2016, Raonic rounded out his game, improved his returns, believed in his backhand, and pressed a little less from the baseline at the start of the point. He now has all the ingredients to impose his will all over the court, and make his own legitimate run at World No. 1 in 2017.