Roger, Rafa Lead The Way In These Serve & Return Scenarios
Roger, Rafa Lead The Way In These Serve & Return Scenarios
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers examines the Top 10 in the ATP Rankings when serving at 0/30 and returning at 0/15
Tennis has traditionally been a game of feel. How does the court feel? How heavy do the balls feel? How hot does the weather feel today? How do I feel going into the match?
So, it’s time to take a ‘feel’ test.
You have got to pick one of the following two scenarios that you feel would give yourself the best chance of winning the game. Do you feel more confident winning a game when you are serving with the score at 0/30, or is it better to be returning serve with the server trailing 0/15?
On one hand you are serving, but still four points from the game and your opponent is only two points away from breaking you. On the other hand, you are returning but you already have the first point in the bag and the server is still at love.
If you answered it feels better to be the returner at 0/15 rather than the server at 0/30, your feel for the better situation would be wrong.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the ATP Rankings winning games while serving at 0/30 and returning at 0/15, from the 2015 season up to the 2019 Internazionali BNL d’Italia, shows that serving at 0/30 is definitely the higher percentage option.
Current Top 10 Average: Winning The Game
Holding from 0/30 = 49.1% (1627/3316)
Breaking from 0/15 = 41.6% (4948/11891)
Difference = 7.5 percentage points
Holding from 0/30
It’s intriguing to learn that 0/30 is still a very even battle for the Top 10. In fact, five players posted a winning record, with Roger Federer leading the pack, holding 55.7 per cent (131/235) of the time. World No.1 Novak Djokovic came in second, beating big servers Kevin Anderson and Juan Martin del Potro.
Current Top 10: Holding from 0/30 since 2015
| Position | Player | Games Won | Total Games | Win Percentage |
| 1 | Roger Federer | 131 | 235 | 55.7% |
| 2 | Novak Djokovic | 198 | 361 | 54.8% |
| 3 | Kevin Anderson | 156 | 300 | 52.0% |
| 4 | Juan Martin del Potro | 94 | 185 | 50.8% |
| 5 | Rafael Nadal | 191 | 376 | 50.8% |
| 6 | Marin Cilic | 177 | 369 | 48.0% |
| 7 | Kei Nishikori | 189 | 395 | 47.8% |
| 8 | Dominic Thiem | 229 | 480 | 47.7% |
| 9 | Alexander Zverev | 183 | 428 | 42.8% |
| 10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 79 | 187 | 42.2% |
| – | TOTAL/AVERAGE | 1627 | 3316 | 49.1% |
Breaking Serve From 0/15
World No. 2 Rafael Nadal was the only Top 10 player to be above 50 per cent breaking serve after winning the first point of the game when returning. Djokovic featured in second place again, while Kei Nishikori was third best in breaking serve from 0/15.
Current Top 10: Breaking From 0/15 Since 2015
| Position | Player | Games Won | Total Games | Win Percentage |
| 1 | Rafael Nadal | 710 | 1409 | 50.4% |
| 2 | Novak Djokovic | 724 | 1481 | 48.9% |
| 3 | Kei Nishikori | 604 | 1349 | 44.8% |
| 4 | Roger Federer | 506 | 1191 | 42.5% |
| 5 | Juan Martin del Potro | 311 | 738 | 42.1% |
| 6 | Alexander Zverev | 524 | 1286 | 40.7% |
| 7 | Dominic Thiem | 601 | 1492 | 40.3% |
| 8 | Marin Cilic | 470 | 1296 | 36.3% |
| 9 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 188 | 554 | 33.9% |
| 10 | Kevin Anderson | 310 | 1095 | 28.3% |
| – | TOTAL/AVERAGE | 4948 | 11891 | 41.6% |
The moral of the story is that breaking serve is still a very difficult proposition, even if you only have to win three points while the server has to win four. It also shows us that a 0/30 hole is not as deep as we think. In some cases, it’s not a hole at all.