Running With The Bull: Curious Nadal, Federer Patterns Revealed

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of distance run in the first two sets of matches by the current Top 10 in the FedEx ATP Rankings from 2018-2020 identifies that almost all run less in the second set than the first. Rafael Nadal leads the pack by running 10 per cent less in set two than set one.

And then there is the curious case of Roger Federer, who was the only Top 10 player in the data set to run more in the second set.

The data set is comprised of matches at ATP events on Hawk-Eye courts.

Overall, Nadal ran more in the first set than any other player in the Top 10, at an average of 3512 feet. That is right at 30 per cent more than Matteo Berrettini, who ran the least of the Top 10 in set one at an average of 2478 feet. But once set two began, Nadal was the master at running less compared to his opening set.

The Spaniard averaged running just 89.7 percent of his set one distance in set two, which can be attributed to several factors. Perhaps he wore his opponent out in the first set and they didn’t have the stamina to stay with him in set two. It could also be Nadal cleverly formulated a strategic edge in set one that bore fruit in set two. Another possibility is that he simply loosened up and dictated more in set two after taking the opening set.

Daniil Medvedev was second best at reducing his work rate in set two, running 89.8 per cent of the set one distance. The other players who covered significantly less court in set two than set one were Novak Djokovic (91.9%), Dominic Thiem (92.1%), Alexander Zverev (93.0%) and Matteo Berrettini (95.4%). Stefanos Tsitsipas and Gael Monfils were almost identical with distance run between sets, with both being within one percentage point of their set totals.

Federer ran 104.2 per cent more in set two compared to set one. Possibilities why include opponents being able to play more baseline to baseline points in set two compared to the marauding net game Federer typically likes to employ right out of the gate in the first set. It could also have to do with the fact Federer is already on the low end of the spectrum, running just 72 per cent of the distance Nadal did in the first set.

Of all players, Gilles Simon took the honors with the highest average of distance run in set one (4165 feet) and set two (3904 feet), while Nick Kyrgios ran the least in set one (2081 feet) and set two (2024 feet).

Overall, the dynamic of player movement highlights various game styles and the willingness to either try and force errors early in the point or extract them later by wearing down an opponent both physically and mentally.

2018-20: Top 10 Set 1 vs Set 2 Player Movement (in feet)