Scouting Report: Murray, Djokovic Battle For No. 1 In Paris

Murray Eyes No. 1: Andy Murray comes into Paris on a 15-match winning streak after winning consecutive titles in Beijing and ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai and in Vienna on Sunday. During the streak Murray has won 28 of 30 sets played. His seven titles this season is a career-best and he’s co-leader (w/Djokovic) on the ATP World Tour. Murray is trying to catch Novak Djokovic and reach No. 1 for the first time. 

The Brit trails Djokovic by only 415 points in the Emirates ATP Race To London and will become No. 1 if he wins the title and Djokovic does not reach the final. He can also move ahead by making the final if Djokovic does not clear the quarter-finals.

And while attention is on Murray’s quest to rise to No. 1 for the first time, Djokovic this week could clinch the coveted year-end No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking for the third consecutive year and fifth time overall. Djokovic would lock that up if he wins the Paris title and Murray does not reach the semi-finals.

The 29-year-old Brit enters Paris with a 69-9 match record on the season (39-6 on hard) and a 7-4 record in finals. He began the first four months of the year with a 13-4 match record and since May he has compiled a 56-5 mark, including a career-best 22-match winning streak. He’s also won titles at ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome, London/Queen’s Club, Wimbledon and a second Olympic gold medal in Rio de Janeiro. Along the way, he reached a personal-best seven finals in a row and the streak ended with a quarter-final loss to Nishikori at the US Open.

Last Stop Before London: The final tournament of the regular season on the ATP World Tour takes place in Bercy with the BNP Paribas Masters. Seven players are in contention to battle for the final two spots at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London. The 48-player draw includes four former winners, led by three-time reigning champion (four overall) Djokovic (2009, 2013-15), David Ferrer (2012) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (2008), and Tomas Berdych (2005). Djokovic is the only four-time winner in the history of the tournament.

Two Spots Left in London: Seven players are within mathematical reach of Marin Cilic, who holds the eighth and final spot with 3,090 points, 210 points ahead of Tomas Berdych. The seven players still alive in the London hunt are: Dominic Thiem, Cilic, Berdych, David Goffin, Roberto Bautista Agut, Vienna finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Lucas Pouille.

A Look Ahead in Paris: There are several potential third-round matches that could be critical in determining who is eliminated from London contention.

In the top half of the draw, Cilic (3,090), who passed Berdych for the final spot in London, is on a third-round collision course with Goffin. Cilic will square off against countryman Karlovic or a qualifier in the second round, while Goffin plays the winner of Nicolas Mahut and Martin Klizan. Djokovic is looming as a likely quarter-final opponent in that section.

In the bottom half, No. 7 seed Berdych (2,880), who must reach the semi-finals to have a chance for London, could meet No. 10 seed Bautista Agut (2,340) in the third round – who must win the title to have a London shot. No. 11 seed Tsonga, who could face No. 5 seed Nishikori in the third round, must win the title to have a chance for London. No. 13 seed Pouille (2,106) will likely need to advance past World No. 2 Murray – and go on to win the title – to keep alive his London hopes.

2016 ATP Masters 1000 Finals: The Big Four have accounted for seven of the eight ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles this season, with Djokovic leading the way with four crowns, Murray with two and Nadal with one.

Big Four Dominance: The ‘Big Four’ of Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Nadal have won 55 of the past 60 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments, which dates back to Nadal’s triumph at Monte-Carlo in 2010. The only other players to emerge with an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title are Robin Soderling (2010 Paris), David Ferrer (2011 Paris), Stan Wawrinka (2014 Monte-Carlo) , Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (2014 Toronto) and Marin Cilic (2016 Cincinnati).

Doubles Draw: There are 10 of the Top 12 teams in the Emirates ATP Doubles Race to London in the Paris draw. There are five teams battling for the final two spots in London. The No. 7 (Kontinen/Peers) and No. 8 teams (Huey/Mirnyi) meet in the first round. No. 9 Rojer/Tecau, last year’s champions in London, must reach the semi-finals AND have Huey/Mirnyi lose in the first round to have a chance. No. 10 Cabal/Farah must reach the final AND have Huey/Mirnyi lose in the first round to have a chance. No. 12 Benneteau/Roger-Vasselin must win the title AND have Huey/Mirnyi lose in the first round to have a chance.

World No. 1/Reigning Champion: World No. 1 and reigning champion (four overall) Djokovic is making his 12th straight tournament appearance. He has a 26-6 career record in Bercy, having won the title in 2009 and from 2013-15. He began with a 3-4 record in his first four appearances before going 23-2 the past seven years (W/O in ’11). 

Djokovic has compiled a 59-7 match record (41-4 on hard) on the season and is co-leader on the ATP World Tour with seven titles, including crowns at the Australian Open and Roland Garros and ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and Toronto. On Monday, it will mark the 223rd week overall he has ranked No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, which is fifth most (since Aug. 23, 1973). He has held No. 1 every week since July 7, 2014, a streak of 122 consecutive weeks. Djokovic is trying to finish No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings for the third straight year and fifth time in six years (except ’13).

Roland Garros/Bercy Double: In June, Djokovic completed a career Grand Slam by capturing his first Roland Garros title (d. Murray). It was his 12th attempt at Roland Garros. The only player to win Roland Garros and Bercy titles in the same year was Andre Agassi in 1999.

French Title Hopes: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the last French player to win the Bercy title. The 2008 champion is one of 11 Frenchmen in the main draw. Since then, Gael Monfils was runner-up in 2009-10 and Tsonga in ’11. The other French winners in Bercy are Sebastien Grosjean in 2001 and Guy Forget in 1991.