Stats Preview: Analysing Kyrgios’ Perfect Serving Record Against Djokovic

Novak Djokovic enters the Wimbledon final as a three-time defending champion, second on the all-time wins list at The Championships with 85 match victories. But a triumph against Nick Kyrgios is not among them.

Though the pair have never met at Wimbledon, the Serbian is 0-2 in his ATP Head2Head against his final opponent. Djokovic did not claim a set — or a break of serve — in two 2017 encounters as Kyrgios was victorious in Acapulco and Indian Wells. The Aussie saved the only break point he faced across those two hard-court matches, nullifying the threat of one of the game’s all-time best returners with a combined 39 aces in four sets and a first-serve win rate above 80 per cent in each match.

Djokovic failed to live up to his career win rate of 34 per cent against first serves, posting success rates of 19 and 14 per cent in those two matches against the power of the Kyrgios delivery. The Aussie will hope to ride a similar serving performance to victory on Sunday.

“His motion for the serve is so fluid and just very quick,” Djokovic said of his next opponent after a four-set semi-final victory against Cameron Norrie. “He can hit any angle really. He tosses it forward so he can come in, serve and volley. He puts himself in a great position to be aggressive or to stay back. But he’s always one metre in front of the baseline.

“On grass I would assume it’s even tougher to read his serve and to return because he has so many free points. You could see that throughout this tournament, as well. He just puts additional pressure on your serve. He moves well. He’s got great hands. So [he’s a] very complete player.”

Djokovic has been back to his best on return this fortnight, though he has yet to face an opponent of Kyrgios’ serving caliber. His 32 and 59 per cent win rates against first serve and second serves, respectively, comfortably outpace Kyrgios’ marks of 28 and 49 per cent.

That may come as no surprise for the Serbian. But a look at the serving statistics for both men provide more good news for Djokovic.

Despite hitting 50 aces to the Australian’s 120, the top seed has backed up his serve more effectively than his unseeded opponent. His win rates of 82 and 56 per cent on first and second serve compare favourably to Kyrgios’ 78 and 53 per cent.

Behind his booming serve, Kyrgios will seek to keep the points short in Sunday’s final. The Australian has won just fewer than half of points in rallies longer than four balls, while Djokovic has been consistently strong in rallies of all lengths, winning at least 56 per cent of short, medium and long exchanges.

The Serbian will aim to drag his opponent into long rallies and long service games. Kyrgios has posted an impressive 82 per cent save rate on break points, but Djokovic will be confident of a better conversion rate on the chances he creates in the final. 

While Kyrgios saved eight of nine break points in his quarter-final win against Cristian Garin with clutch serving, such moments will carry more weight in a Grand Slam final — particularly with Djokovic across the net.

“I’ve never been here before,” Kyrgios said of reaching the title match. “That’s where Djokovic has the advantage from the get-go. He can draw from experience, he’s done it so many more times, he knows the emotions he’s going to be feeling. I don’t know that. I don’t know anything like that,” he said in his pre-final presser.

He also shared that he had “a shocking sleep” after learning that Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal put him into the final.

“I feel like I’m just a reckless ball of energy right now. I just want to go out on the practice court now and hit some tennis balls and just talk. I don’t know. I want it to come already. Yeah, I want the final to come already… I know that I have to kind of just calm down.”

As the unseeded underdog’s nerves settle, he will benefit from clarity of thought and confidence with regard to his game plan thanks to his fruitful history against Djokovic. But he’ll also know that his third meeting with the Serbian will be his toughest yet.