The Numbers Behind The Big Four's Dominance
The Numbers Behind The Big Four's Dominance
Novak Djokovic owned 2015. Andy Murray surged to World No. 1 in 2016, and it’s been the Roger and Rafa show so far in 2017.
The Big Four have all had their time in the sun during the past two-and-a-half years, and all are ranked in the Top Four of the Emirates ATP Rankings this week.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers breakdown of their first-serve percentage when serving down break point in both the deuce and ad courts from the 2015 season to the present time provides deeper insight into the metrics that define their greatness.
1. Overall Record
Novak Djokovic has the highest match-win percentage of the Big Four since the start of the 2015 season, at 88.6 percent, with Roger Federer in second place, at 85.2 per cent.
Big Four Overall W/L Record 2015 to Present
|
|
Player |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 to date |
Total |
|
1 |
Andy Murray |
71-14 |
78-9 |
25-10 |
174-33 (84.1%) |
|
2 |
Rafael Nadal |
61-20 |
39-14 |
46-7 |
146-41 (78.1%) |
|
3 |
Roger Federer |
63-11 |
21-7 |
31-2 |
115-20 (85.2%) |
|
4 |
Novak Djokovic |
82-6 |
65-9 |
32-8 |
179-23 (88.6%) |
2. Deuce Court – First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
Nadal is the clear leader in this category, making 73.7 per cent of his first serves in the deuce court down break point. The primary pattern for the lefty is to hit a slice serve down the centre of the court, and follow it up with his trademark “Serve +1” forehand.
Deuce Court – First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
|
|
Player |
Made |
Total |
Percentage Made |
|
1 |
Nadal |
146 |
198 |
73.7% |
|
2 |
Federer |
64 |
98 |
65.3% |
|
3 |
Murray |
171 |
266 |
64.3% |
|
4 |
Djokovic |
124 |
200 |
62.0% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
505 |
762 |
66.3% |
3. Ad Court – First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
Nadal leads in this category as well, but it’s interesting to note that he makes just 0.2 per cent more first serves in the ad court than the deuce court. Djokovic improved the most in the ad court over the deuce court, up 4.3 percentage points, while Federer and Murray both made fewer serves on this side.
Ad Court – First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
|
|
Player |
Made |
Total |
Percentage Made |
|
1 |
Nadal |
554 |
750 |
73.9% |
|
2 |
Djokovic |
476 |
718 |
66.3% |
|
3 |
Federer |
215 |
351 |
61.3% |
|
4 |
Murray |
464 |
805 |
57.6% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
1709 |
2624 |
64.8% |
4. Overall – First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
Overall the Big Four played 77.5 per cent of their break points in the ad court. Only Nadal and Djokovic combined to make above 65 per cent of their first serves in both courts during this crucial time of the match.
Overall First-Serve Percentage Down Break Point
|
|
Player |
Made |
Total |
Percentage Made |
|
1 |
Nadal |
700 |
948 |
73.8% |
|
2 |
Djokovic |
600 |
918 |
65.4% |
|
3 |
Federer |
279 |
449 |
62.1% |
|
4 |
Murray |
635 |
1071 |
59.3% |
|
– |
AVERAGE |
2214 |
3386 |
65.2% |
5. Summary
Putting a first serve in the court when all the drama is unfolding around a break point comes down to simple technique, holding your nerve, and coming up with the the right serve – a flat, slice or kick serve – and placing it in just the right spot – out wide, at the body or down the centre.
The Big Four don’t always follow the same playbook as each other, but their proven dominance at the top of our sport since the start of the 2015 season comes down to owning moments in time just like this.