The Surprising Way Nadal Won His Eighth Rome Title

Start at the end.

Start with knowing exactly what happens at the pinnacle of our sport in a clay-court final, and it becomes much clearer what you need to focus on in practice to also reach these lofty heights.

In other words, let data from the match court make the practice court smarter.

Rafael Nadal defeated Alexander Zverev 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 in a riveting Internazionali BNL d’Italia final on Sunday. Zverev had a real chance at victory, up an early break in the third set, before rain threw a curveball into the match, allowing Nadal to reset and win the final five games.

It was a high-quality final, with several long, grueling rallies bringing the Italian crowd to their feet in appreciation of the effort and impressive shot-making of both players. There were 24 rallies that went at least double digits (10 shots), totaling 313 shots in the court by both players.

Was this where the match was won by Nadal? No. Not even close.

Our eyes remember the long, spectacular rallies, but quickly forget the short rallies – even dismissing them as not important to the final outcome.

Make no mistake about it, Nadal found his way to the finish line first by forging his advantage in the short rallies much more than the longer ones. It’s important to note that rally length is defined by the ball landing in the court.

On clay in Rome, with Nadal and Zverev competing for two hours and nine minutes, the most common rally length in the final was just one shot. A one-shot rally, which was either an ace, service winner, or missed return, occurred 23 times. The next closest were three- and four-shot rallies, which happened 15 times each.

Nobody in the packed house at the raucous Foro Italico would guess that one shot in the court happened more than anything else. Those points are quickly forgotten. In fact, a zero- and one-shot rally happened more than all 10+ shot rallies combined (25 points to 24 points).

Read & Watch: Rafa Reigns In Rome

There were 791 shots hit in the court in the final, with 60 per cent (478) occurring in single-digit rallies, and 40 per cent (313) hit in double-digit rallies of 10 shots or more. It’s completely counter-intuitive, but there were more shots hit in shorter rallies than longer ones.

The average rally length for the final was 5.8 shots, meaning each player put right around three shots in the court. It’s not as many as our imagination would guess.

We also learn from the following table that the “halo effect” of the serve lasts for just one shot after the serve on clay before an even baseline duel unfolds. That explains why a rally length of three shots in the court happens more than two. The power of the serve makes the ensuing Serve +1 groundstroke (third shot) a very dominant force in the rally.

2018 Rome Final: Rally Length Totals

The following breakdown identifies how Nadal was far more dominant in the shorter rallies than the longer ones.

Rallies of single digits (0-9 shots)
Nadal won 62

Zverev won 51

Nadal was +9

Rallies of double digits (10+)
Nadal won 13

Zverev won 11

Nadal was +2

A common view in our sport is that Nadal becomes more dominant the longer the rally goes, but that definitely did not play out in the Rome final. Indeed, what we find in our sport is that the longer the rally goes, the more even it naturally becomes.

The Rome final can be a roadmap for the practice court for players at all levels of our game. First-strike tennis, consisting of shorter points, happens way more in a match than we realise. Consistency, shot tolerance and grinding get more respect than they deserve. It’s time for the serve, return and Serve +1 strategies to carve out more time in practice.

Just one shot in the court rules our sport much more than we ever thought.